Author Topic: The General Election Scoreboard  (Read 3313 times)

Offline Semnae

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The General Election Scoreboard
« on: May 04, 2016, 06:22:34 am »
Maps are based on RCP polls and the results of the last presidential election. A leader is indicated if the margin is greater than 4% or a particular party got more than 10% of the vote in the last election.

Trump vs. Clinton


I intend to keep this post updated. Eventually the maps will be based entirely on polls.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 12:09:36 am by Semnae »

Offline Tanis

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2016, 07:12:13 am »
Polls are useless.

Usually they're 'iffy' or 'maybe, sort of, close to it', but this time around?
Completely useless.


Besides, Sanders is still running.

I'll never vote for Hillary.
I'd rather not vote and risk Trump.

Because at least if he's elected we'll get nice and fucked over.
To the point where we'll be FORCED to change our ways.


Better to have this country toss into fire than a slow boil.
Better for the people to SUFFER in the now, to have another Trail of Tears...
Then to have someone like Hillary who will lead us down the same path, but more slowly and less obvious.


Maybe that's what the US of A NEEDS.
Maybe we NEED a good shotgun to the balls instead of more 'behind the scenes' crap.

Offline Semnae

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2016, 08:42:31 am »
Polls are useless.

Usually they're 'iffy' or 'maybe, sort of, close to it', but this time around?
Completely useless.

That's an odd thing to say. The margin of error doesn't change that much each election cycle. It's still 3-4%, like it has been for at least 15 years or so.

Quote
Besides, Sanders is still running.

So is Kasich, but it doesn't matter. If I made maps for every conceivable match up, I'd spend a lot of time making maps that look exactly the same. People don't vote for candidates in the general, they vote for ideologies. Sanders and Clinton both have liberal ideologies, so there wouldn't be much difference in what states they carry.

Sure, there will be some malcontents like yourself that will choose to stay home or vote Trump if Sanders looses, but there aren't going to be enough to change a single state red. There are months between the convention and the general election, during which time they process through their feelings of loss. Most Sanders supporters will just accept the loss, move on, and give thier vote to the candidate with the most similar ideology, Hillary Clinton.

At this point, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump won every McCain state and Clinton won every Obama state. The only thing that could possibly shake up this election is if a promising third party or independent candidate or a kingmaker runs.

Offline Ixarku

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2016, 12:21:35 pm »
I'm going to call it now -- Trump gets Florida.  Never underestimate the power of rednecks in large numbers.
If I ever meet God in person, I'm going to ask Him why he created so many stupid people, and then punch Him in the nose before he answers.

Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2016, 12:32:32 pm »
It's not really useful for you to make this thread right now. We're months out. The third parties haven't even had their conventions. There's also a chance, albeit unlikely, that Bernie Sanders could still win the nomination. Something around a 3-4% chance.

That said, no, not every Sanders supporter is going to vote Clinton "because they share similar ideologies." They don't. Last I heard something like 34% of Sanders supporters won't vote Clinton. You have to remember, a great number of Sanders supporters are people that were drawn into the process by Sanders, and independents, that wouldn't have otherwise voted at all. But, I'll get to that later.

After New York I was pretty convinced that the General was going to be Hillary vs Trump but I wasn't going to support Hillary no matter what. My plan was to vote for Jill Stein but it turns out that I can't even vote for someone in the Green Party in Oklahoma. If anyone else was planning on doing the same then you should know that there are a lot of states where you can't currently and you may need to help sign petitions to get it on your state's ballot. You can see a map here which shows where you can't currently vote Green Party in the General. Some of those, like Oklahoma, have already met their deadlines for their petitions.

So, I did the unthinkable - no, the really unthinkable - I actually looked up Donald Trump's economic policy. I knew that he was against all of these terrible trade deals like the TPP and aside from that... his policies are bad. Like, real bad. A lot of his ideas don't even seem to have any basis in reality, they're just random things that he thinks. He would be worse for our country than Reagan and we still haven't recovered from that moron with his voodoo economics - that's what Bush said about them when they were running against one another. I have an entire rant about Reagan here.

So then I looked at Hillary's plans - all of them. Awful. For instance, know how she's going to pay for helping out kids with paying for college? This is quoted word-for-word from her website: "Students will do their part by contributing their earnings from working 10 hours a week." Are you fucking serious?! That's like paying $600 a month or $7,200 a year. No, that is exactly what that is. Her healthcare plan is basically "do nothing but make it look like I'm fighting really hard." It's kiddie gloves stuff, seriously. On national security she plans to "Defeat ISIS and global terrorism and the ideologies that drive it." She also wants to " ensure the United States maintains the best-trained, best-equipped, and strongest military the world has ever known" which to me says either leave military spending alone or increase it. The only thing in any of her issues that she seems remotely tough on I'm not sure that she'll even do it like campaign finance reform, going for wall street, closing tax loopholes and so on. I think it's going to be kids gloves stuff and new stuff will probably just get passed that does the same thing.

If Bernie doesn't win the nomination by some miracle there is nobody left that deserves to be President that I could vote for, and no one that I will vote for. At this point I think my only option is going to be to just leave the President field blank and just fill in my votes for the other serious issues on the ballot instead. I feel really disappointed by this country's democrats. We really dropped the ball. I just don't understand how so many people could possibly want to vote for Hillary. It makes no sense. I know they're mostly just watching the corporate media which are basically shills for Hillary but it's so god damned infuriating. "The people have spoken, the bastards." -Dick Tuck

The only real hope I have left is if Bernie loses if he actually takes keeping his political revolution going very seriously and transforms his campaign into a movement not focused on electing him or supporting Hillary, but focused on electing Progressives into office at every level of government that are going to do the right thing, and helping them fund and run their campaigns and if there are none then maybe find some and convince them to run and help them do it. That's the only way we'll change the country no matter who gets elected, and it's the only way I think we'll see real change with Hillary as President. I don't think even she would veto something like Universal Healthcare and so on if we actually manage to get it on her desk. It would be political suicide.

tl;dr: If by some miracle Bernie gets the nomination, he has my vote. If not, and if the Green Party somehow gets on the ballot in Oklahoma, then I'll vote for Jill Stein of the Green Party. If not, I'm leaving my ballot blank for the Presidential race. Trump & Clinton are both scum and neither deserve my vote - their policies are pure shit.

If any of you are considering voting for either of those morons then I challenge you this: Go to each of their websites and read through all of their policies, and actually think about them.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions

You should be able to figure out what's wrong with Hillary's policies on your own. Trump's, you might need to think about a bit more to understand the full extent of their impact...
http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2016-03-11/donald-trumps-economic-policies-will-cost-americans
http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/28/news/economy/donald-trump-polls-taxes-wages/
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13335121/1/if-donald-trump-was-president-here-s-what-would-happen-to-the-u-s-economy.html
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-tax-plan

Excerpts:
Quote
Abstract
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Donald Trump’s tax proposal. His plan would significantly reduce marginal tax rates on individuals and businesses, increase standard deduction amounts to nearly four times current levels, and curtail many tax expenditures. His proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, although the largest benefits, in dollar and percentage terms, would go to the highest-income households. The plan would reduce federal revenues by $9.5 trillion over its first decade before accounting for added interest costs or considering macroeconomic feedback effects. The plan would improve incentives to work, save, and invest. However, unless it is accompanied by very large spending cuts, it could increase the national debt by nearly 80 percent of gross domestic product by 2036, offsetting some or all of the incentive effects of the tax cuts.

Quote
Trump has also pinpointed imposing tariffs on imported goods, for example, suggesting a 35% tax on automakers that manufacture cars in Mexico. Such a maneuver might bring jobs back stateside, but it might not. Instead, it could just mean people paying more for what they're buying.

"If he puts 35% taxes on products, the manufacturing will still not come back to the U.S., and all it will mean is U.S. consumers have to pay 35% more for the products that are made outside the country," said Busler.

"American consumers would end up paying more for things, and that hurts the economy if you're putting tariffs on those other things," said Matthews.

You can just search his policies on things that seem odd and what their impacts will be, like deporting all of those immigrants, building the wall, healthcare, and so on. In short, it'll be really bad. We'll probably be so in debt that we'll be thought of like Greece. The lowest tax brackets won't be paying taxes at all and all the higher tax brackets will have significantly lower taxes (like halved, or more). It's just going to cripple the government's ability to generate federal revenue.

Offline halfelite

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2016, 07:19:52 pm »

Quote
Trump has also pinpointed imposing tariffs on imported goods, for example, suggesting a 35% tax on automakers that manufacture cars in Mexico. Such a maneuver might bring jobs back stateside, but it might not. Instead, it could just mean people paying more for what they're buying.

"If he puts 35% taxes on products, the manufacturing will still not come back to the U.S., and all it will mean is U.S. consumers have to pay 35% more for the products that are made outside the country," said Busler.

"American consumers would end up paying more for things, and that hurts the economy if you're putting tariffs on those other things," said Matthews.

You can just search his policies on things that seem odd and what their impacts will be, like deporting all of those immigrants, building the wall, healthcare, and so on. In short, it'll be really bad. We'll probably be so in debt that we'll be thought of like Greece. The lowest tax brackets won't be paying taxes at all and all the higher tax brackets will have significantly lower taxes (like halved, or more). It's just going to cripple the government's ability to generate federal revenue.

Or the opposite could happen and jobs do come back and prices can be cheaper no one knows that answer for sure its all a bunch of what if's from both sides.  But take it from the standpoint on any of the candidates anytime you raise a tax on anything be it someones income or a product/goods the consumer in the end is going to pay 3-4x more then they were paying. Say they raise the tax on the rich. Well most people balance a budget and say OK I want to make "X" amount of dollars but so and so just raised my income taxes so to get back to "X" amount of dollars I need to increase my pay by "X" Now take a large corporation were top management all do this the only way to balance our the pay increase top management got is to increase the price of goods/service the corporation offers.

Same could happen on the 35% they want to add to cars manufactured in Mexico but that would put most car cost above what people could afford. So either people dont buy new cars its a possibility and the car companies go belly up or car manufacturers move back to the US another possibility.   

No voting person should look at any Candidates Policies and expect them to work like they say they will. The big unknown factor is and will always be how will the people react.

Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2016, 07:31:53 pm »
Guess what? Even if jobs do come back, Trump doesn't support a $12 minimum wage, well alone a $15 minimum wage. He's actually said the $7.25 minimum wage is too high and should be lower than it currently is so we can compete with foreign countries.
https://www.facebook.com/TheYoungTurks/videos/10153098642594205/
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/donald-trump-minimum-wage-215787

As for your nonsense about taxing the rich, that's complete rubbish.

"Well, I think it's quite simple again. If you look at something called velocity of money, you guys know what that is I presume, that means how much gets spent and turns around. When you have the top 1% getting money, they spend 5-10% of what they earn. When you have the lower end of the economy getting money, they spend 100-110% of what they earn.

As you've had a transfer of wealth to the top and a transfer of income to the top, you have a shrinking consumer base basically, and you have a shrinking velocity of money."-Asher Edelman (who Gordon Gekko from the movie Wall Street was based on)
« Last Edit: May 04, 2016, 09:04:41 pm by Tiffanys »

Offline metro.

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2016, 07:59:36 pm »
Wow look called it when the whole "is Clinton running" train started.

She'll win, and if she doesn't Trump will get impeached within the first two years.

I really don't understand the internet's fetish-like addiction to Sanders. Maybe it's because I live in a more liberal country, but the odds of an establishment shake up happening THAT quickly is super unlikely. The hate for the menial changes that Obama has made towards socialism have been beat to shit.


Nothing will change, congress will accomplish nothing and america will continue to fade into economic oblivion.
I'm going to call it now -- Trump gets Florida.  Never underestimate the power of rednecks in large numbers.
Don't you...live there?

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Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2016, 08:14:21 pm »
Kasich suspended his campaign just now - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFHjyLWDGHo
« Last Edit: May 04, 2016, 08:26:29 pm by Tiffanys »

Offline halfelite

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2016, 08:44:19 pm »
Guess what? Even if jobs do come back, Trump doesn't support a $25 minimum wage, well alone a $15 minimum wage. He's actually said the $7.25 minimum wage is too high and should be lower than it currently is so we can compete with foreign countries.
https://www.facebook.com/TheYoungTurks/videos/10153098642594205/
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/donald-trump-minimum-wage-215787

As for your nonsense about taxing the rich, that's complete rubbish.

"Well, I think it's quite simple again. If you look at something called velocity of money, you guys know what that is I presume, that means how much gets spent and turns around. When you have the top 1% getting money, they spend 5-10% of what they earn. When you have the lower end of the economy getting money, they spend 100-110% of what they earn.

As you've had a transfer of wealth to the top and a transfer of income to the top, you have a shrinking consumer base basically, and you have a shrinking velocity of money."-Asher Edelman (who Gordon Gekko from the movie Wall Street was based on)

I do not support a 25$ Minimum wage either.  Currently we are at a 15$ wage and being in the housing construction we do piece rate. There are some employees that regularly come out at a $27+ hourly wage with piece. But there is a good chunk of about 40% that will stick to the bare minimum. Currently they have an opportunity to make almost double what they do but they choose not to. I believe the amount you put into work should reflect in the amount you get paid.

You missed the point on the rich I am not saying they will spend more they will pass that tax on to someone lower then them if you raise the tax on the rich they will in turn give them self a raise to offset the difference and the raise will in turn raise the cost of goods/service for the lower income. It works the same as business taxes. Say you raise the business taxes 1% . The goods a consumer is going to buy is an inkpen. The raw metals guy that produces the tip raises his price by 1% to cover the tax raise. The Ink company raises there price by 1% to cover the raise. The actual Pen company has to now pay 2% more for all the goods plus raise there price by 3% to cover all the new cost. So the consumer in the end just paid that tax raise. The same trickle down will happen with the rich all the 1% are CEO/board members and such so say you raise the tax on them 20% they will turn around and increase their salary by 20% and the cost will eventually trickle down to the consumer paying for that difference.

Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2016, 09:05:22 pm »
I don't know how I managed typing 25... It was supposed to be 12.

Offline Ixarku

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2016, 12:20:27 am »
I'm going to call it now -- Trump gets Florida.  Never underestimate the power of rednecks in large numbers.
Don't you...live there?

Yes, and I'm surrounded by rednecks, and I have rednecks in my family on both sides, despite the fact that all of my grandparents were originally Yankees.  I guess when in Rome.  I used to be mostly indifferent to rednecks because I'm white and they leave me alone, but I'm increasingly disliking this particular demographic group.
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Offline jaybug

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2016, 12:56:55 am »
If, and I mean big fucking "IF" Hilary wins the primary election; she will lose the general election for the same reason Romney lost. Too many potential supporters stayed home and did not hold their nose to vote for her.

Anyone who supports her has shit for brains. Note: she lost Indiana because she didn't campaign there, she did not spend any TV money in self-promotion. She considered it fly-over country, not worth her notice. And you expect her to suddenly listen to your whiny demands as soon as she is sworn in? Gimme some of what you're smoking dude, it's wild shit man.

Trump wins Florida because he gets the votes of people who don't like paying any kind of taxes. As soon as your state starts making people pay income taxes, I'm certain that will change.
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Offline Semnae

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2016, 02:45:19 pm »
If, and I mean big fucking "IF" Hilary wins the primary election; she will lose the general election for the same reason Romney lost. Too many potential supporters stayed home and did not hold their nose to vote for her.

Seriously? You think the first female ever nominated as a presidential candidate by a major political party is going to lose because people stayed home?

Offline Fool010

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2016, 03:23:04 pm »
Seriously? You think the first female ever nominated as a presidential candidate by a major political party is going to lose because people stayed home?

One of your presidential candidates has a haircut that looks like cotton candy fallen into an urinal, does anything still surprise you ?

Besides, I'm firmly convinced Hillary is a human shaped bear trap.
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Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2016, 03:34:36 pm »
Seriously? You think the first female ever nominated as a presidential candidate by a major political party is going to lose because people stayed home?
She's a corrupt untrustworthy liar and represents everything wrong with politics in this country. She is the Establishment. It was Al From's 1992 "bloodless coup" that transformed the FDR/LBJ Democratic Party into the Clinton party of "centrist" corporatism. She's also currently under investigation by 147 FBI agents and the deadline for all of her aides being interviewed is before the convention. Having tits and a vagina doesn't entitle her to the office of President.

If she is put up as our nomination then there's a very good chance we could lose this election. There's a lot of anger out there. She's not going to turn out new voters like Bernie could, either. She isn't liked.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/politics/2016-election-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
« Last Edit: May 06, 2016, 02:22:45 am by Tiffanys »

Offline Shohei-kun

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2016, 09:41:44 pm »
So I'm on both sides of the fence here. I want Donald Trump to be president solely so the USA can get a fucking wake up call at how retarded everyone is and how much change we need. People will realize how stupid they were to vote for him, and anybody who did vote for him should be sterilized by law. On the other side the international losses we will suffer will never be recovered. Even if Trump proves to be the most incompetent president in history (which he probably would be right behind W. Bush) it doesn't change the fact that "we" were stupid enough and voted for him in the first place. A lot of foreign countries hate us now (rightfully so), but there is no way they will take us seriously if Trump becomes president.

That said I don't want Clinton to win either considering her history and the crap she spews. Sanders' goals are mostly unattainable because of the GOP's desire to interfere with anything Democrat even if everybody wins from the deal, but at least Sanders is trying to bring some real change. Regardless of who wins these next four years are going to be very long and very painful for the United States.
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Offline Semnae

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2016, 01:31:12 am »
Having tits and a vagina doesn't entitle her to the office of President.

You are correct, but overlooking one extremely important detail. You are looking at this election from the perspective of someone that can recognize how fake she is. The average voter is dumb as a brick. When those slack-jawed lemmings smell pussy, they are going come running to the polls in droves. As intellectuals, we like to think the presidency isn't determined by things like race or gender. In reality, people like you and I are in a very small minority. Tits and a vagina are all she needs to herd the lemmings.

Behold the power of tits and vag!

Offline jaybug

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2016, 01:36:35 am »
If, and I mean big fucking "IF" Hilary wins the primary election; she will lose the general election for the same reason Romney lost. Too many potential supporters stayed home and did not hold their nose to vote for her.

Seriously? You think the first female ever nominated as a presidential candidate by a major political party is going to lose because people stayed home?

Why the fuck wouldn't I? It's not the first time that has happened here. And shit, even bad weather has affected elections.

And you are still putting the cart before the horse in declaring Hilary the nominee today. California is still waiting.

Lemmings, what constitutes the majority of the far left of the Democratic party.

Stampeding bison, what constitute the majority of the far right members of the GOP. Both are known for going over cliffs at full speed.
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Offline Ixarku

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2016, 01:55:33 am »
And you are still putting the cart before the horse in declaring Hilary the nominee today. California is still waiting.


It's not over yet, but statistically it's highly unlikely that Sanders is going to win it.  His campaign is going to have to pull off a miracle to make it happen.


Personally, I REALLY resent being stuck in the situation for yet another election cycle where I'm going to have to choose between a candidate I hate and a candidate that I hate more.  I don't like being forced to choose between pragmatism and idealism.  I still haven't decided what I'm going to do.
If I ever meet God in person, I'm going to ask Him why he created so many stupid people, and then punch Him in the nose before he answers.