Author Topic: The General Election Scoreboard  (Read 3297 times)

Offline Nikkoru

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2016, 02:37:49 am »
  I don't like being forced to choose between pragmatism and idealism.  I still haven't decided what I'm going to do.

You can always choose the escape hatch marked "Canada".

We have French's ketchup!

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Offline jaybug

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2016, 02:40:09 am »
We got Portland ketchup. It's organic. Actually Eugene doesn't. I think they have a problem playing second fiddle to the bigger metro area; even if the homeless population is about the same.
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Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2016, 02:49:26 am »


I think that sums it up nicely.

Offline Nikkoru

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2016, 02:52:52 am »
We got Portland ketchup. It's organic. Actually Eugene doesn't. I think they have a problem playing second fiddle to the bigger metro area; even if the homeless population is about the same.

But does Portland have baby pandas?

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Offline Ixarku

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2016, 04:17:56 am »
  I don't like being forced to choose between pragmatism and idealism.  I still haven't decided what I'm going to do.

You can always choose the escape hatch marked "Canada".

We have French's ketchup!

If you guys didn't have to wear polar bear fur for underwear, I'd probably consider it.  The biggest problem about being a Florida native is that I'm not well-suited to temperatures much below the boiling point of water.
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Offline Nikkoru

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2016, 04:25:10 am »
  I don't like being forced to choose between pragmatism and idealism.  I still haven't decided what I'm going to do.

You can always choose the escape hatch marked "Canada".

We have French's ketchup!

If you guys didn't have to wear polar bear fur for underwear, I'd probably consider it.  The biggest problem about being a Florida native is that I'm not well-suited to temperatures much below the boiling point of water.

Meh, you'll get used to it.

Look, here's our Prime Minister with the baby pandas.

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Offline Fool010

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2016, 04:34:44 am »
Doesn't a politician cuddling baby pandas amount to animal cruelty ?
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Offline Nikkoru

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2016, 04:53:19 am »
At the moment, I think there are more Canadians envious of the pandas than of Trudeau in that picture.

Oh yeah, there's also the baby polar bear.



and the baby rhino



and and white lion kittens!

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Offline jaybug

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2016, 05:33:00 am »


Portland has an elephant older than I am. This is a photo of Packy on his 54th birthday. Guess he was the big start from when I was a wee lad. But no pandas that I have heard about. They aren't weird enough I guess.

Ix. go to Vancouver, eh? It's not cold there. Like here, but with even more outrageous housing prices. Kinda like S.F. in that regard...
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Offline metro.

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2016, 06:23:42 am »
It is honestly mind boggling to me that Trump is a candidate in America, and that people who were hyped on Bernie are now considering him.

That sort of leap is just something I don't get.

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Offline jaybug

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2016, 07:19:56 am »
It is honestly mind boggling to me that Trump is a candidate in America, and that people who were hyped on Bernie are now considering him.

That sort of leap is just something I don't get.

I wonder if it's something like trying to explain the joys of riding a Harley-Davidson motorcycle, or.... I think maybe perhaps "hyped on Bernie" may be your stumbling block. I don't think any person who has been working his/her/whatever's butt off for Bernie won't be voting Trump in November. I don't know how many will stay home instead of voting for Hilary. But I don't think Trump will get all that many crossover votes from the Bern pile.

I dunno. I think Trump being here in Eugene, where I live, tomorrow, and how they riot will perhaps change things a bit. If they act as you folk do towards me, but act out in public, I doubt it will play well for a lot of voters. Trump won Indiana right after the crap that went down in Burlingame, California.


edit: from yahoo news
Quote
Trump made clear that he would echo Bernie Sanders’ criticism of Hillary Clinton in the coming race. “Bernie actually said she’s unqualified because she’s got bad judgement and it’s true,” Trump said. “She’s unqualified because of the fact that her judgement is so bad.”
« Last Edit: May 06, 2016, 07:31:31 am by jaybug »
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Offline Nikkoru

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2016, 08:05:57 am »
It is honestly mind boggling to me that Trump is a candidate in America, and that people who were hyped on Bernie are now considering him.

That sort of leap is just something I don't get.

I think it's mostly what they're prioritizing when they supported Sanders.

Purely anti-establishment types that seems to be a near-majority of the Republicans, a strong minority of Democrats, and a hefty amount of Independents, will vote Trump because he's the second-choice of non-inside-the-beltway candidates.

Others are simply ardent anti-Clintonians. Those who hate Hillary and wanted to stop her in the primaries before they had to consider voting against her in a general election, and will have to now anyways.

Some support Trump because he claims he'll re-negotiate the trade deals America has established over most of recent history and push a tariff-based economic agenda to somehow restore the economy to pre-1980's levels of non-Neoliberal globalism - good luck with that by the way - and that's something roughly similar to Sander's anti-globalist message. Both had success in the industrial heartland because of people's frustration with outsourcing and... essentially the modern economy. If that's your issue Democrat/Republican hasn't really mattered.

Though what percentage of these people - just like members of the Stop Trump-movement - will factor into the election is nebulous to say the least. Lots of Clinton supporters ended up voting for Obama in '08, despite vowing not to and Clinton will attempt to persuade on-the-fence Sanders' supporters she's not the devil really or stopping Trump is just too important to not support her, and some people who claimed they'd never vote Trump will for much the same reason never vote anything but Republican despite what they've said and Trump will attempt to placate their fears that he hasn't a goddamned clue what he's doing.

Most Americans, despite all manner of insults regarding them, in my experience just have regular check book and dinner table issues - they aren't looking towards revolution - they just want to know the sun will rise tomorrow and they'll be safe and their plans for the future won't crumble horribly beneath them. That's why Bush did so well in '04 but Obama won so extensively in '08 - in '04 the Republicans promised security at all costs while 9/11 was fresh in people's minds, in '08 they were in the epicentre of power during the collapse of much of their collective sense of their economic security and self-worth. Obama provided stability in 2012, and Mitt Romney failed to undermine that sense or offer much of a positive alternative to get around that - this is particularly obvious with regards to the Obamacare issue, lots of fervour against it from Republicans but not much as to what their practical alternative is.

I think this election is this -- Clinton is pretty much the Stephen Harper of the American Democratic Party, she's not personally popular (will never be) and fairly mechanical as a politician,  but she sounds like she knows what she's talking about particularly within the heavily coded discourse of modern politics... and while that will turn off people and is far from passion-inflaming, when you're dealing with a fairly conservative country (Which America is) and not really facing a horrible economic downturn (Which America really isn't) or massive 9/11-esque tragedy evoking strong fears that pushes things towards hysterical radical agenda (which really hasn't happened, San Bernardino didn't really change America forever and something worse probably isn't on the horizon) people will vote for the comforting presence of a competent-seeming person whose not out to make waves. Every time Clinton claims she'll continue the Obama administration's policies and maintain the general status quo, she's appealing to that inclination, and every time she gives some dry policy answer, it reduces the perception that she's at all risky.

Trump, well, he has an uphill battle.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2016, 08:11:09 am by Nikkoru »
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Offline Ixarku

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2016, 12:15:26 pm »
Ix. go to Vancouver, eh? It's not cold there. Like here, but with even more outrageous housing prices. Kinda like S.F. in that regard...

I kind of want to retire somewhere warm, in a condo on the beach.  Of course if climate change continues along the course it's been going, maybe I'll have more choices by the time I get to 62.
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Offline Semnae

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #33 on: May 07, 2016, 10:09:10 am »
I changed my mind and decided to include a Trump vs. Sanders map in the original post. I got rid of the map based on just polls because not enough states have been polled for it to be useful.

Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #34 on: May 09, 2016, 05:01:54 am »
So Nikkoru, what you saying is "It's the Economy Stupid!" non? Funny how un-Hilary that seems to be.

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Offline Semnae

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #35 on: May 15, 2016, 11:30:08 am »
I'm going to call it now -- Trump gets Florida.  Never underestimate the power of rednecks in large numbers.

I'm curious. Why is Clinton polling against Trump so much better than Sanders in Florida? Sanders does better in every other state.

Offline Ixarku

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #36 on: May 15, 2016, 01:24:17 pm »
I'm going to call it now -- Trump gets Florida.  Never underestimate the power of rednecks in large numbers.

I'm curious. Why is Clinton polling against Trump so much better than Sanders in Florida? Sanders does better in every other state.

Florida has been described as a microcosm of the rest of the country, but in this instance, I suspect it is because Democrats here probably skew more towards the moderate side of the spectrum rather than towards the hard core liberal side.  I don't have the facts to back it up, but I'm also wondering if the black and Latino voters here are the bigger Clinton voters and are tipping the balance.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-leads-sanders-by-more-than-2-to-1-in-florida-post-univision-poll-finds/2016/03/09/d48412d0-e56f-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html
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Offline halfelite

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #37 on: May 15, 2016, 10:49:05 pm »


Trump, well, he has an uphill battle.

Very nice laid out post. I dont think Trump has that much of an uphill battle though. I think Hillary is the one that has the battle on her hand. She is an established politician and first lost of a lot of states to Bernie, and now has to go up against a non politician that is sweeping the nation.  Then Hillary went and said she would put a stop to coal mining she shot her self in the foot with a lot of key states. Ohio is a big one usually always being a swing state and is also a big on coal mining for jobs.

  As you say for the most part America is in pretty good position right now that economy could be slightly better but the main problem is what lies ahead. The huge one on a lot of older peoples mind is obamacare/medicare and social security. As much as people say it if A republican goes into office they will not remove Obamacare nothing is ever taken away they are only stalled and then when the next party goes in they will add more to it and such nothing ever goes away.  At the rate everything is going Obamacare and medicare will have to merge together. Come 2019 the existing medicare means testing options can change which will allow it to dip into the middle class and change what they consider means. Same goes for social security they are wanting to introduce means testing into social security where if you paid your dues your whole life into SS and planned well for your retirement and have a nice fund built up you do not get any or very small amount of the SS you would have gotten.

Offline Nikkoru

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Re: Trump vs. Clinton: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #38 on: May 16, 2016, 12:33:11 am »


Trump, well, he has an uphill battle.

Very nice laid out post. I dont think Trump has that much of an uphill battle though. I think Hillary is the one that has the battle on her hand. She is an established politician and first lost of a lot of states to Bernie, and now has to go up against a non politician that is sweeping the nation.  Then Hillary went and said she would put a stop to coal mining she shot her self in the foot with a lot of key states. Ohio is a big one usually always being a swing state and is also a big on coal mining for jobs.

1. Primaries aren't the general election, that was precisely what I was arguing before - most Americans aren't invested in partisan politics and a slim minority actually show up to pick candidates, because they have lives to live and concerns of their own.

2. Bernie wasn't "non-establishment" being in one office or another since 1981, he was anti-corporatism and anti-globalist with a strong socialist bent, but that's an agenda he's pursued through established means. He was also knowledgeable about foreign and domestic policy in a way Trump has never demonstrated.

3. Clinton has a relatively easy road to maintain Democratic control of the White House. She's not going to lose the big states with the obvious exception of Texas and many of the now fairly strong Blue States can brunt the impact of any selective swing State. The electoral game of thrones is referenced in Sem's opening post, the wider demographic patterns and local politics put the Democrats in the default lead.

4. After the post-mortem of the Republican loss 4 years ago - and really wasn't terribly surprising at the time - the conclusion was that they needed to expand the Republican party and find an in with the non-White Male voter-base which has had a decreasing relevance in deciding elections as time marched on.  Trump's favourables are substantively lower than Romney's with every demographic the Republicans need to take power. 7 out of the 10 women have an unfavourable opinion of Trump, a demographic which not only votes more than men but in fact constitutes the majority of Americans. Among non-Whites the figures are even harsher, with over 86 percent of Latinos - the biggest and fastest-growing minority population- having an unfavourable view of Trump and 70 percent a strong dislike of the man.

5. The last point goes to my argument, Trump doesn't represent stability in any aspect of his campaign - his policies which are already pretty questionable logically and fiscally without even mentioning his apparent willingness to change them on a drop of the hat, his rhetoric which is inflammatory to say the least, and his legitimacy is premised on superficial charismatic appeal and his personal wealth rather than a record of decisions in the act of governance or meritorious personal responsibility of any kind (like a military leader).
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Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #39 on: May 16, 2016, 02:01:19 am »
Speaking to Nikkoru's points 4 and 5; Limbaugh was claiming in his post mortem of the 2008 election, that the Romney campaign was not "conservative enough." I don't think that was accurate. I think what happened was that most Americans saw though the Dole smoke and mirrors that the GOP had been playing since they came to power in 2006. Federal deficit up, housing market bubble and burst, home values had plummeted by the November election. It was the economy stupid! The only thing most Americans saw of conservatives, were the crazy religious nut jobs that kept proposing Leviticus type commandments dressed as US laws. ...and this was even before "Too big to fail." Had American voters known that was going to happen, they may have voted differently. Maybe.

I bet Trump's unfavorabe rating with women I would hazard a guess is that he marries and dumps women on a regular basis. Even if Ivana does not seem to be full of loathing and hatred toward her ex. Seems that only works if you are the wife of a philanderer. You not only get to play the woman card, you can double down with the victim card! I do not even see how "Latino" voters even know Trump. ( doesn't it seem odd that Italians are not Latino?) Did you know Hispanic is different from Latino? And what about the Latinas? Oh, it's okay to gender discriminate here, in this instance???

point 5. Good thing you do not run a business Nikkoru. You would surely have it deep in debt and insolvent in short order. At best you mischaracterize what an entrepreneur does in running their enterprise(s). It goes a bit like this. You have an idea. You become passionate about this idea. You then perform "due diligence." Upon completion of this action, you make necessary changes, even if they turn your idea on its head. You have to, or your idea is dead in the water. It's that pragmatism you so dearly love. The left gets of on declaiming Trump for stating Mexico would pay for a new wall. That's simple. Tolls. Haven't you ever heard of the New Jersey Turnpike? Shit, I've heard of that, and I haven't ever been to Jersey. From Chicago to the Atlantic ocean, it's all toll roads. Something we don't have out west, except for some interstate bridges.

Trump throws money. But he expects to see more money in return. And he is usually right, otherwise he could not afford to bankroll a presidential campaign, now could he? An entrepreneur takes risks, a successful military commander takes risks. This is opposite to what most political animals do. They take the safe easy path, every time. Thinking that someone is stupid for filing bankruptcy is not correct. Markets change, just like the weather. Places like Mohegan Sun have eaten away at Atlantic City. Besides, who wants to travel through all, the rough places of another state, when you can drive through the Berkshires and a nicer state, when you want to gamble?

Anyone who wins the lottery is rich, at least for a day or two. Remaining rich is harder. Getting rich all over again after a bankruptcy is note worthy, not derogatory, unless you know so very little about what business is all about. Which explains most comments against Trump from the hard left. No wonder they want socialism, they could only run a business straight into the ground, and never come out of bankruptcy themselves.

Have you heard any word of Trump not having secure data servers?

Hilary can't even run her own computers without fucking that up.
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