Author Topic: The General Election Scoreboard  (Read 3297 times)

Offline Ixarku

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #40 on: May 16, 2016, 12:28:26 pm »
Jay, are you really trying to say that Trump is qualified to be President simply because he knows how to make money?  Nik's comments are mostly spot on.  Trump has been fairly inconsistent with his stances, hence why even his own party wants to get rid of him, since he's not a true conservative.


I bet Trump's unfavorabe rating with women I would hazard a guess is that he marries and dumps women on a regular basis.

This kind of a sexist comment.  Could it not be that Trump's unfavorable rating with women stems largely from some of the shit that comes out of his mouth?  There ARE women who are capable of judging a candidate's worthiness using criteria of greater substance than who the schmuck marries or divorces.

Running a country isn't like running a business.  Some of Trump's recent comments reveal either a disturbing lack of knowledge about some of the basics of the economy, or just reinforce his bombastic image, neither of which is going to serve him well in the domestic or international arenas.  In 2008, some people were having a fit because Barack Obama wasn't qualified to be President because of his supposed lack of experience in government, and yet here we are 8 years later, and how many people on that same side are making the same statements about Trump?  The man's never held an elected office, yet he's somehow qualified to make decisions for one of the most powerful and important nations on the planet?  Obviously, this is one reason why smart candidates build a strong cabinet of experts, but how many qualified people are signing onto Trump's team at this point?

I don't disagree that Clinton is untrustworthy, but without question she's vastly more experienced in government than Trump.  Her record shows that she's got the ability to work within government, regardless of any questions about ethics.  She literally is a Washington insider.  I don't want either one of them for President, but I think a Trump Presidency would be far more likely to end with the White House getting burned to the ground.
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Offline Nikkoru

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #41 on: May 16, 2016, 09:55:09 pm »
I don't see Trump's story as some kind of monumental struggle to achieve the American Dream, he turned a large fortune into a larger fortune over decades in a pretty robust era. His bankruptcies represent failures but were not sufficiently dire to actually jeopardize his overall acquired wealth to which Jaybug's "comeback from nothing" vision romantically paints him, he inflates his financial status in his self-promoting rhetoric, and his businesses are not entirely ethically sound by all accounts --  but I'm not going to invalidate the worth of Trump's business completely.

However, America's not technically supposed to be a plutocracy, just having money isn't sufficient basis for rule - and as Ixarku said, I believe running a business and holding government office are not equivalent in their mentality and skill-sets and that becomes more significant the greater the responsibilities required of the office. Being successful at business can be - and often is - a reasonable start to a political career. Mitt Romney, oddly enough, is a good example. His campaign wasn't exclusively run on braggadocio over his personal wealth like an overcompensating rap artist - he had a tenure in political office which was largely successful and he could speak commandingly about foreign and domestic policy when required to, there was something there which one could discern what he'd do going forward which the voter could base their views on... and that's the point I was expressing earlier, comfort that the world is largely going to stay in tact underneath you the second you leave the voting booth based on solid conjecture of what kind of future is going to come about is what people want - it just so happened Obama's continued rule was seen as more safe to the majority's sensibilities.

To put in entrepreneurial terms, Clinton and Trump are both asking for funding for their start-up business,

Trump, though has had some success in a tangential enterprise and comes with a great deal of personal charisma, has never been in this sector before  and all he's brought to the table are malformed concepts of what his product is and his business strategy seems cobbled together with a lot of questionable assumptions.

Clinton couldn't, to use a mildly racist cliche, sell ice to an Eskimo and has some shady history over her financials, but has a decades-long track record as part of a (generally) popular brand with good figures in this same market to point to which has survived just about everything thrown at it. Her business strategy is mostly sound, and there's a clear proof of concept with the product she's endeavouring to sell.

The fledgling businesses both require of you invest sufficiently as to incur some personal risk should they fail - possibly jeopardizing your retirement or home payments. Who are you going to invest in?

That's rhetorical by the way.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 09:58:28 pm by Nikkoru »
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Offline metro.

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #42 on: May 16, 2016, 10:28:01 pm »
Speaking to Nikkoru's points 4 and 5; Limbaugh was claiming in his post mortem of the 2008 election, that the Romney campaign was not "conservative enough." I don't think that was accurate. I think what happened was that most Americans saw though the Dole smoke and mirrors that the GOP had been playing since they came to power in 2006. Federal deficit up, housing market bubble and burst, home values had plummeted by the November election. It was the economy stupid! The only thing most Americans saw of conservatives, were the crazy religious nut jobs that kept proposing Leviticus type commandments dressed as US laws. ...and this was even before "Too big to fail." Had American voters known that was going to happen, they may have voted differently. Maybe.

I bet Trump's unfavorabe rating with women I would hazard a guess is that he marries and dumps women on a regular basis. Even if Ivana does not seem to be full of loathing and hatred toward her ex. Seems that only works if you are the wife of a philanderer. You not only get to play the woman card, you can double down with the victim card! I do not even see how "Latino" voters even know Trump. ( doesn't it seem odd that Italians are not Latino?) Did you know Hispanic is different from Latino? And what about the Latinas? Oh, it's okay to gender discriminate here, in this instance???

point 5. Good thing you do not run a business Nikkoru. You would surely have it deep in debt and insolvent in short order. At best you mischaracterize what an entrepreneur does in running their enterprise(s). It goes a bit like this. You have an idea. You become passionate about this idea. You then perform "due diligence." Upon completion of this action, you make necessary changes, even if they turn your idea on its head. You have to, or your idea is dead in the water. It's that pragmatism you so dearly love. The left gets of on declaiming Trump for stating Mexico would pay for a new wall. That's simple. Tolls. Haven't you ever heard of the New Jersey Turnpike? Shit, I've heard of that, and I haven't ever been to Jersey. From Chicago to the Atlantic ocean, it's all toll roads. Something we don't have out west, except for some interstate bridges.

Trump throws money. But he expects to see more money in return. And he is usually right, otherwise he could not afford to bankroll a presidential campaign, now could he? An entrepreneur takes risks, a successful military commander takes risks. This is opposite to what most political animals do. They take the safe easy path, every time. Thinking that someone is stupid for filing bankruptcy is not correct. Markets change, just like the weather. Places like Mohegan Sun have eaten away at Atlantic City. Besides, who wants to travel through all, the rough places of another state, when you can drive through the Berkshires and a nicer state, when you want to gamble?

Anyone who wins the lottery is rich, at least for a day or two. Remaining rich is harder. Getting rich all over again after a bankruptcy is note worthy, not derogatory, unless you know so very little about what business is all about. Which explains most comments against Trump from the hard left. No wonder they want socialism, they could only run a business straight into the ground, and never come out of bankruptcy themselves.

Have you heard any word of Trump not having secure data servers?

Hilary can't even run her own computers without fucking that up.

Holy hell I love that you think we need to wall off Jersey, I think that's a great idea.

Wait that wasn't your point, was it?



"An entrepreneur takes risks, a successful military commander takes risks", look man I'm all for business acumen being an important and transferable skill, but on the real the vast majority of a President's job is to set the direction of a country, not plan each turn taken. I know the idea of Trump in a military uniform might give the hard right a boner but let's be real this guy, and nearly every president, is just enacting plans laid out by people that actually know what they're doing.



I think this might be a perspective thing so maybe an American can explain it to me, but is there a reason being a Washington insider is a bad thing? I've heard the claim levied against multiple different people, don't you want someone that knows the terrain before they start their new job? If it's that they don't "understand the problems are real Americans", than no one does, because "real Americans" is usually just whatever demo you reside in. It's not a constant, broad strokes and "market" research are just/or more useful than anecdotal evidence.

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Offline Ixarku

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2016, 12:47:24 am »
Metro, the "Washington insider" thing carries strong negative connotations to a lot of people.  I think a similar analogy in terms of connotation might be when someone calls an academic an "ivory tower intellectual".  The Washington insider doesn't champion populist views, at least not when it really counts.  This hypothetical person actually represents the special interest groups.  He or she is no stranger to backdoor politics, where the common man's needs get sold out in pork-barrel deals that benefit the wealthy and the elite.  The Washington insider is more concerned with playing politics and achieving their own success than with pushing forward positive change that would benefit more people.  This person is thought to be much more likely to be pragmatic to the point of being mercenary, willing to sell out their own ideals, and the ideals of their constituents, whenever it is convenient to do so.

At least, this is my impression of what the stereotype means.
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Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #44 on: May 17, 2016, 01:45:38 am »
I just so love to see how your definition of words has changed over the past 7 years. That somehow a local community organizer is more qualified than a billionaire to run a trillion dollar enterprise called the US federal government. And that suddenly NOW after we have deteriorated even further in our foreign relations, we need anothersomeone who belittles and demeans everyone.

Also, you said SOME women. Okay, sure, but that is how many percent of the voters? And how many others are just parroting what someone else has said? I think you could put MOST in that category.

It also seems to me that you are misapplying the listed powers from the Constitution, as to what the Executive branch does. And have never read Trump's book, the Art of the Deal. Isn't dealing, what politicians do on a daily basis? Isn't that the same thing an entrepreneur does?

It's silly to argue further, as long as your definition of words remains different from mine. So I will just tell you about my mother. She was a director of Head Start programs in two states and 5 counties. She had employees, payroll, federal compliance mandates, state mandates, workers rights, bus drivers, cooks, teachers, yadda, yadda, yadda. She has also been a state legislator, after she retired from her Head Start position.

You can have some notions of how things are, but if you are going to ask 'experts' and then decide that they know nothing, because you already have the answer, you are doing a disservice to yourself, your constituents, and are insulting your expert. If this is so, why bother wasting everyone's time with congressional, or legislative hearings? You have just demonstrated you know more than everyone else in the room, so who gives a shit what they think, or know? I seriously doubt Donald Trump ever thinks of himself as the smartest man in the room. BUt I bet he thinks he knows who the smartest man or own in the room is, and how to get him to solve his problems.

Say, wasn't Donald Trump's right hand man a woman? At least on the one episode of his Apprentice show, there was a woman who was said to be his #1.

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Offline metro.

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #45 on: May 17, 2016, 05:33:17 am »
You "hilarious" trolling aside, I think the fact that a presidential front runner had his own reality TV show pretty much sums up how the world views America.

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Offline Ixarku

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #46 on: May 17, 2016, 11:52:33 am »
You "hilarious" trolling aside, I think the fact that a presidential front runner had his own reality TV show pretty much sums up how the world views America.

Yeah, I agree.  We've become a joke, some kind of redneck-powered nuclear weapon-wielding big-mouthed racist joke.  The Donald can make America great again by quietly disappearing.
If I ever meet God in person, I'm going to ask Him why he created so many stupid people, and then punch Him in the nose before he answers.

Offline xfreidax

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #47 on: May 17, 2016, 12:05:39 pm »
Watching US political dysfunction of recent years, I get the sentiment of wanting to throw out an establishment that's mired in special interests serving only the social and economic elite and picking an outsider to shake things up.

But surely, Trump's not that person amirite? I mean, he's not actually anti establishment. He's one of the fat cats feeding off the system....Is he not?? I guess when you don't have a choice that works?  :o

Offline Tiffanys

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #48 on: May 17, 2016, 12:56:21 pm »
« Last Edit: May 17, 2016, 01:13:05 pm by Tiffanys »

Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #49 on: May 18, 2016, 12:55:03 am »
Have you yet stopped to wonder why the rest of the world watches US reality TV shows?

How many world leaders are not viewed as jokes in other countries? Sad, and scary do not count as jokes, except jokes in poor taste.

Personally, I think the US devolved to jokes in chief during Clinton and his sexcapades. And they have not gone up yet. Obama may have received a Nobel prize, but that itself is a joke. For what? He showed up? So what's one more?

I would rather be led by a clown, than the evil witch queen from hell. If I am going to hell in a bucket, at least I want to enjoy the ride, apologies to Jerry Garcia.
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Offline xfreidax

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #50 on: May 18, 2016, 04:45:35 am »
Have you yet stopped to wonder why the rest of the world watches US reality TV shows?

Coz they're mostly train wrecks and people have morbid fascinations? Or you can put them in the, so bad it's good category.  :mml:

Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #51 on: May 18, 2016, 07:26:41 am »
Have you yet stopped to wonder why the rest of the world watches US reality TV shows?

Coz they're mostly train wrecks and people have morbid fascinations? Or you can put them in the, so bad it's good category.  :mml:

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Offline Tiffanys

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #52 on: May 30, 2016, 06:39:09 pm »
Well, apparently there's going to be an independent challenger from the GOP for Trump after all... http://www.mediaite.com/online/bill-kristol-teases-impressive-third-party-candidate-trump-responds-dummy-and-loser/

Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #53 on: May 31, 2016, 12:34:04 am »
Well, apparently there's going to be an independent challenger from the GOP for Trump after all... http://www.mediaite.com/online/bill-kristol-teases-impressive-third-party-candidate-trump-responds-dummy-and-loser/

Never knew Kristol to be such a huge, or is that Yuge Hilary supporter. But I guess he is. I hope he gets run over by some large sedan with diplomatic license plates.
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Offline Semnae

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #54 on: June 23, 2016, 03:38:08 am »
It's been about a month, so it's time for an update. I've once again removed the Sanders vs Trump map for obvious reasons. State polls are becoming more frequent with the primaries out of the way, and they are also starting to include third party candidates. This gives us a more accurate picture of what's going on. Two big changes have been made to the Clinton vs. Trump map. Pennsylvania and Florida have fallen into the swing state category. This presents a possible route for Trump to become president.

Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #55 on: June 23, 2016, 05:07:50 am »
What else are you using to predict the future? The Oracle of Omaha? The Seer Soros? I doubt any poll will accurately reflect truth, because too many people screen their calls at home and elsewhere anymore. Otherwise we could just take the numbers of congressmen and use those people, because gee, isn't that enough of a sample to be statistically relevant? So, Trump wins! Happy now?

The only thing to look forward to are the riots in Cleveland and Philly. OMG 78 days until football.
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Offline DespondenSea

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #56 on: July 18, 2016, 07:10:57 pm »
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


538 has Clinton at 69.9% to win the popular vote, and Trump at 30%.


Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #57 on: July 19, 2016, 05:43:58 am »
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


538 has Clinton at 69.9% to win the popular vote, and Trump at 30%.

That poll is an outlier beyond 6 sigma. Because no one else has anything close to their numbers.
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Offline DespondenSea

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #58 on: July 19, 2016, 06:33:06 am »
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


538 has Clinton at 69.9% to win the popular vote, and Trump at 30%.

That poll is an outlier beyond 6 sigma. Because no one else has anything close to their numbers.

What other polls are you referring to, and what track records do they have with regard to accuracy?


Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #59 on: July 20, 2016, 02:23:47 am »
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


538 has Clinton at 69.9% to win the popular vote, and Trump at 30%.

That poll is an outlier beyond 6 sigma. Because no one else has anything close to their numbers.

What other polls are you referring to, and what track records do they have with regard to accuracy?

You could try Politico's latest poll, for one.

Accuracy? Do tell what that is regarding polls. lol
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