Author Topic: The General Election Scoreboard  (Read 3314 times)

Offline DespondenSea

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #60 on: July 20, 2016, 07:49:31 am »
Politico's polls are close enough.

The 538 poll I cited was calculating the odds that Hillary would win the election vs. Trump. That was not the margin that she would win by.


I cite fivethirtyeight because they have an exceptional track record of using available data (including polls) to correctly predict the outcomes of political contests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2008_U.S._elections

Offline Semnae

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #61 on: July 23, 2016, 05:57:02 pm »
It's been about a month, so time for an update. Clinton has has flipped Colorado. The state has flipped from solid red to solid blue. Clinton is losing ground everywhere else. Maine CD/2, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan have changed from solid blue to swing states.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2016, 06:00:22 pm by Semnae »

Offline Burkingam

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #62 on: July 23, 2016, 07:33:08 pm »
On TV, they said Kaine was given the VP nod but at first I heard "Kanye". And I was like "holly shit! It really is the end!"
« Last Edit: July 23, 2016, 09:23:51 pm by Burkingam »
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Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #63 on: July 25, 2016, 03:24:07 am »
On TV, they said Kaine was given the VP nod but at first I heard "Kanye". And I was like "holly shit! It really is the end!"

She probably wishes she had, until Kanye grabbed the mic from her.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now lol
« Last Edit: July 26, 2016, 01:02:43 am by jaybug »
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Offline Semnae

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2016, 12:13:23 am »
I've been so busy I almost forgot about this thread! Here's an overdue update. Things are looking good for Clinton. Now that Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania are solid blue, she has the 270 she needs to win. In addition, Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina, which were solid red states, have now become battleground states.

Offline jaybug

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #65 on: September 11, 2016, 01:46:44 am »
I've been so busy I almost forgot about this thread! Here's an overdue update. Things are looking good for Clinton. Now that Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania are solid blue, she has the 270 she needs to win. In addition, Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina, which were solid red states, have now become battleground states.

yeah, right.
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Offline Nikkoru

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #66 on: October 08, 2016, 05:16:26 pm »
Well, Trump's fucked.
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Offline Tiffanys

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #67 on: October 08, 2016, 07:27:07 pm »

Offline Nikkoru

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #68 on: October 08, 2016, 08:08:23 pm »
Here's an interesting forecast: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

That, I'm pretty sure, is still simply the fallout from his ruinous first debate and the craziness that came after. Trump had a narrow avenue for victory and it mostly involved winning Florida and a few other swing states and that's increasingly been getting unlikely and the math kept getting worse and worse for him as there was less and less time to pull a 180... and frankly, tomorrow's town hall kind-of-debate wasn't all that likely to go in his favour for that to change all that much before yesterday.

Now this is a thing.

I don't blame the down-ticket Republicans for fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, or Pence for hedging somewhat to not be whacked around among this Christian fundamentalist base for being a part of this failed ticket. It's a camel's-back-breaking situation and the briefly optimistic early September where Trump got close to a statistical deadlock with Clinton has fallen back into the yawning abyss of post-convention August.

This is kind of the death knell for the Republican party, even if they back away from their garbage fire of a candidate they can't take Trump's awful, awful supporters with them at the same time. Seeing the (R) candidate trying to take Reid's former spot in the Senate give a live speech disavowing his party's Presidential candidate to loud derisive boos of Trump supporters paints the picture of the future.

Though the most amusing thing is, clearly, that yet another member of the Bush family continues to be instrumental in disappointing everyone.
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Offline surdumil

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #69 on: October 09, 2016, 12:59:51 am »
From an outsider's perspective, the removal of Trump will be an interesting and quite entertaining process.

Offline Nikkoru

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #70 on: October 09, 2016, 01:28:09 am »
From an outsider's perspective, the removal of Trump will be an interesting and quite entertaining process.

That's more or less a fantasy without Trump's resignation. When he goes down, it'll be like a dictator of a banana republic. No doubt crying how the election was rigged from the beginning, that everyone - the media, his own party, small woodland animals - conspired against him, and declaring 10 acres and mule for the heads of those who betrayed him.
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Offline Tiffanys

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #71 on: October 09, 2016, 05:41:04 am »

Offline xfreidax

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #72 on: October 09, 2016, 01:26:31 pm »
"You haven't paid any federal taxes in 15 years..."
"That makes me smart."

He'll make a great president! GRAB THAT PUNANI!

Robert De Niro on Trump, for shiz n giggles  :mml:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q-ZyW9bz5c

Offline Burkingam

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #73 on: October 10, 2016, 04:26:36 am »
Why is everyone talking as if "General Election" was synonymous only to "presidential election"? If Clinton wins the election but democrats can't gain control of the House and the Senate, we can expect shutdowns regularly.
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Offline halfelite

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #74 on: October 10, 2016, 04:48:32 am »
"You haven't paid any federal taxes in 15 years..."
"That makes me smart."

He'll make a great president! GRAB THAT PUNANI!

Robert De Niro on Trump, for shiz n giggles  :mml:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q-ZyW9bz5c

The CEO of GE in 2011 turned a profit of 5.1 Billion dollars and did not pay a single tax instead they got a tax credit of 3.1 Billion dollars. You know what president Obama said to them wow you are a smart business man I want to appoint you as finical adviser.  5 years later Trump did not pay some taxes and suddenly its a huge deal as the media wants to make it seem. Now I am not saying Trump is a stand up guy but that issue with taxes is so overblown.

Offline metro.

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #75 on: October 10, 2016, 05:02:41 am »
"You haven't paid any federal taxes in 15 years..."
"That makes me smart."

He'll make a great president! GRAB THAT PUNANI!

Robert De Niro on Trump, for shiz n giggles  :mml:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q-ZyW9bz5c

The CEO of GE in 2011 turned a profit of 5.1 Billion dollars and did not pay a single tax instead they got a tax credit of 3.1 Billion dollars. You know what president Obama said to them wow you are a smart business man I want to appoint you as finical adviser.  5 years later Trump did not pay some taxes and suddenly its a huge deal as the media wants to make it seem. Now I am not saying Trump is a stand up guy but that issue with taxes is so overblown.

The issue with that chain of logic is that the CEO of GE isn't running for public office...

BUT it was a good effort let me know what fox news says tomorrow night! Maybe it'll be better :D

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Offline Semnae

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #76 on: November 04, 2016, 12:22:14 am »
I was going to do another update on this thread just before the election, but my all my time is being taken up with preparing for the two classes I'm teaching each day, so sorry guys. It's obvious who's going to win anyways. Normally I stay up all night and watch presidential election results as they come in, but this election cycle is just so lame. I'll probably have a couple beers and turn in early.

Offline Ixarku

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #77 on: November 04, 2016, 02:24:29 am »
I was going to do another update on this thread just before the election, but my all my time is being taken up with preparing for the two classes I'm teaching each day, so sorry guys. It's obvious who's going to win anyways. Normally I stay up all night and watch presidential election results as they come in, but this election cycle is just so lame. I'll probably have a couple beers and turn in early.

Good call.

Nate Silver's giving Clinton a 67% chance of winning it.  He's projecting her winning the popular vote by 3 points.
If I ever meet God in person, I'm going to ask Him why he created so many stupid people, and then punch Him in the nose before he answers.

Offline Semnae

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Re: The General Election Scoreboard
« Reply #78 on: November 09, 2016, 06:10:58 am »
Eating so much crow right now.  :'(