Author Topic: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income  (Read 1860 times)

Offline Natusake

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #40 on: October 11, 2016, 07:40:07 am »
I literally addressed that assertion in my reply. A human at some level must be there to give it purpose. People need to be there to make the machine that makes machine.

Do you really think that simply stating an assertion that I already addressed amounts to a cogent argument?

Offline Krudda

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #41 on: October 11, 2016, 08:20:57 am »
How thick are you. Yes, a human is needed to make the machine that makes the other machines, but we don't need that human anymore after the machine-making machines exist.

Offline Shiakou

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #42 on: October 11, 2016, 08:52:53 am »
Or we would still need humans, but in much smaller quantities. Which would still leave many humans without jobs.

Offline Ixarku

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #43 on: October 11, 2016, 12:24:46 pm »
How thick are you. Yes, a human is needed to make the machine that makes the other machines, but we don't need that human anymore after the machine-making machines exist.

We're not living in Robot City (look it up), so this idea is just a fantasy at this point.  Likewise, people have been predicting the creation of AI for decades, and we're still likely to be yet more decades, possibly much longer, from true 'thinking machines'.

Conversely, the expansion of automation is already in process.  If you look at automation as a logical extension of mass production or as part of the overall industrialization of the world, it's been ongoing for more than a century now.
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Offline Mistgun_Zero

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #44 on: October 11, 2016, 02:21:25 pm »
We are pretty much already building machines using machines at this point. The reason why we are not already exterminated is because humans directly or indirectly try to improve the machines they make, something a machine won't do.

For a machine to replace humans, it would need to have the ability to think like us and the motivation to improve like humans. Thinking like us is already a big goal which AI still no where near. Motivation is even more of a hurdle.

That is the reason I would think the concept of "machine's making machine's and making humans useless" is something that is not gonna happen.

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Offline Shiakou

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #45 on: October 11, 2016, 03:23:14 pm »
There is a difference between "making humans useless" and "making most humans unable to hold a job".

The former is unlikely to happen anytime, the latter is pretty much guaranteed as your tech base and your population gets ever higher.

Offline Saras

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #46 on: October 11, 2016, 03:27:10 pm »
Realistically speaking we aren't in trouble until machines get a functional model of reality. Then, yes. We will have basically created that which will replace us.

Still, let's not forget that while technology does indeed create new jobs, it isn't always at a 1:1 ratio. The jobs the absolute majority of the society does are effectively ancient as all fuck and have been with us since time immemorial.

There is a limit to the demand for new "creative" jobs to do. A limit which I believe is far lower than there are, say, drivers or people who package stuff. Those two come to mind first and foremost, as I honestly can't imagine a single benefit of having a human being be the one to do the job if the price of technology wasn't prohibitively expensive
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 03:30:25 pm by Saras »

Offline Krudda

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #47 on: October 11, 2016, 03:45:11 pm »
We are pretty much already building machines using machines at this point. The reason why we are not already exterminated is because humans directly or indirectly try to improve the machines they make, something a machine won't do.

For a machine to replace humans, it would need to have the ability to think like us and the motivation to improve like humans. Thinking like us is already a big goal which AI still no where near. Motivation is even more of a hurdle.

That is the reason I would think the concept of "machine's making machine's and making humans useless" is something that is not gonna happen.
A machine doesn't require an AI to do squat. Most automated processes that exist today are pre-programmed by a human (one human, one job then its done).
There may be a need for a human or two to oversee the process, but ultimately, one machine could replace dozens of people.
How thick are you. Yes, a human is needed to make the machine that makes the other machines, but we don't need that human anymore after the machine-making machines exist.

We're not living in Robot City (look it up), so this idea is just a fantasy at this point.  Likewise, people have been predicting the creation of AI for decades, and we're still likely to be yet more decades, possibly much longer, from true 'thinking machines'.

Conversely, the expansion of automation is already in process.  If you look at automation as a logical extension of mass production or as part of the overall industrialization of the world, it's been ongoing for more than a century now.
Look how far humanity came in just the last 150 years.
We went from horse driven carriages to rockets that can take you to the moon in only about 80 years.
I am not talking about today, or tomorrow, but around a decade from now.

Offline Spiku

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #48 on: October 11, 2016, 05:08:14 pm »
At some point, in the very near future, there will be intelligent enough AI/,mechanical robots w/e we call them,  to control and do 90%+ of all the work-jobs-works humans do/can do. This is a fact.

It's time to start thinking what we gonna do when we reach that point. Saying "x thing will happen so humans will do y works, so it will balance" is like saying" x things happen that destroy the environment so y things will happen to balance and we'll be okey". No it won't if we don't do something about it first.The Internet is full of articles where people who Actively work on the field of intelligent AI have started saying we've already reached the aforementioned point and the replacement has begun.

Factories all over the world are firing people and replacing them with machines. If we had other places to give people work most people wouldn't work in Mcdonalds or plucking chicken feathers factories. The rate of replacement is not equal to the rate new jobs are getting created. Even the job of robot repairer, will need 3-4 people to repair/exam the robots per factory. That hardly replaces the 1000+ people that lose their jobs in the same factory.

It's time we start planning about it. Ideas like less hours/day of work and 2-3 days/week on the same wage a full time job offers should start becoming reality. A new way of thinking and paradigm shift is needed. All people must have access to the basic stuff, like food/clothing/education without needing to work at all. The planning of society should be to point, the new generations especially, towards a way of thinking "You need to work to be active member of society, but not to survive. Survival is guaranteed. Work on fields that will advance yourself and society in the spirit, arts, mind, planning, finding ways of repairing/problem solving and advancing humanity"

More actions that can be taken : birth control in a smart and civil way (less people less need for more jobs) , changing the current societal and economic system (as stated above) etc.
If the above don't start happening soon, we'll reach a point of massive disruption of society. The ones that have vs the ones that dont have. Better to control it than it happen uncontrollably. Same like the environmental issue, we either start fixing and planning else we gonna have a desert Earth in a few generations.

Either way, do or we don't do and let things go on their own, Life will proceed. We only have the choice to either be with life or swim against the current. No need to tell you what will happen if we swim against it.



« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 05:19:55 pm by Spiku »

Offline Ixarku

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #49 on: October 12, 2016, 12:41:42 am »
Realistically speaking we aren't in trouble until machines get a functional model of reality. Then, yes. We will have basically created that which will replace us.

I, for one, welcome our new machine overlords.  Maybe they'll do a better job (however you choose to define it) as a species than their creators.

Look how far humanity came in just the last 150 years.
We went from horse driven carriages to rockets that can take you to the moon in only about 80 years.
I am not talking about today, or tomorrow, but around a decade from now.

Sure, but that doesn't mean that we won't run into a technological wall at some point.  As they say in banking, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

I'm going to go on the record now and say that there's no chance in hell that we'll have a true thinking machine within the next 10 years.  Maybe within 50 years, we'll have something as smart as a human child.  Maybe.  We don't have anything like Asimov's positronic brain, and even if we did, I think human prejudice would prevent its widespread adoption.
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Offline Krudda

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #50 on: October 12, 2016, 01:07:11 am »
Microsoft made an AI recently. It was hilarious.

Offline Natusake

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #51 on: October 12, 2016, 01:58:36 am »
Still, let's not forget that while technology does indeed create new jobs, it isn't always at a 1:1 ratio. The jobs the absolute majority of the society does are effectively ancient as all fuck and have been with us since time immemorial.

What's the basis for this? Machines have been replacing human jobs since the first industrial revolution. Somehow there isn't massive unemployment... I wonder why that is. If what you said is true, there certainly should be, but there isn't.

Quote
It's time to start thinking what we gonna do when we reach that point. Saying "x thing will happen so humans will do y works, so it will balance" is like saying" x things happen that destroy the environment so y things will happen to balance and we'll be okey". No it won't if we don't do something about it first.

Except every time we've mechanized and industrialized in history was followed by "y thing following and it balancing out". A bit different from just a simple assertion, don't you think?

Quote
The Internet is full of articles where people who Actively work on the field of intelligent AI have started saying we've already reached the aforementioned point and the replacement has begun.

Oh yes, the old "people who don't know anything about economics say it will happen, so it will" argument.

It's time we start planning about it. Ideas like less hours/day of work and 2-3 days/week on the same wage a full time job offers should start becoming reality. A new way of thinking and paradigm shift is needed. All people must have access to the basic stuff, like food/clothing/education without needing to work at all. The planning of society should be to point, the new generations especially, towards a way of thinking "You need to work to be active member of society, but not to survive. Survival is guaranteed. Work on fields that will advance yourself and society in the spirit, arts, mind, planning, finding ways of repairing/problem solving and advancing humanity"

More actions that can be taken : birth control in a smart and civil way (less people less need for more jobs) , changing the current societal and economic system (as stated above) etc.
If the above don't start happening soon, we'll reach a point of massive disruption of society. The ones that have vs the ones that dont have. Better to control it than it happen uncontrollably. Same like the environmental issue, we either start fixing and planning else we gonna have a desert Earth in a few generations.

These would be nothing short of disastrous... So you think the problem is that we're losing jobs, and your proposal is to make jobs MASSIVELY expensive? Well of course machines are going to overtake human labour then, but it won't be because of the ever encroaching advancement of our machine overlords, it'll be because you made work way too expensive.

There has not been a speck of evidence that says human desires will be totally fulfilled and therefore no new industry or jobs will come. You can't just keep repeating the same myths over and over again and have them be true.

Offline Krudda

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #52 on: October 12, 2016, 02:04:32 am »
Nor can you ignore the inevitable.

We're not far off a wall, as Ixarku said. Either we advance to the point nobody has jobs and thus no money to buy the stuff these machines make, or something else happens, and its not likely to be the invention of more jobs.

Also: curbing the birthrate has a negative effect on society. At least, with current technology and lifestyles. It is one of the reasons why Japan is in the middle of an economic and social crisis.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 02:09:26 am by Krudda »

Offline xfreidax

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #53 on: October 12, 2016, 04:21:07 am »
So long as we can keep moving manufacturing and other labour intensive jobs to available sources of cheap labour, mass automation on the scale we're talking about here will not happen. Globalisation has yet to run its full course.

There will always be a place where it's cheaper to hire 20 guys to man an assembly line vs a costly machine & the highly skilled workers needed to maintain it.

Offline Krudda

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #54 on: October 12, 2016, 04:52:14 am »
You're only thinking of today.

What happens in, say, 10 years, when building and maintaining such machines is cheaper than it is today? Is it still worth hirinv 20 guys who could make mistakes, who could cut an arm off and sue you, who require constant wages.

Is it still viable then?

Offline xfreidax

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #55 on: October 12, 2016, 06:02:58 am »
Of course when it makes economic sense, businesses will switch. But that day is pretty far off IMO. Not when the greater part of humanity are still very far behind industrialised countries when it comes to development.

It's akin to our dependence on fossil fuels. We have the tech and know how to fully switch to other forms of energy but we haven't. Why? Because fossil fuels are plentiful and cheap.

Offline Krudda

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #56 on: October 12, 2016, 06:07:51 am »
More like because it would upset our economy too much.
Take electric cars, which were invented before petroleum powered vehicles by the way.
Imagine suddenly all fuel stations only supply electricity. What happens to the profits from gas guzzling cars? Where do people who can't afford to buy a new electric car get fuel from?

Certain people control the world, naturally if you upset their income they're gonna do something about it, and having the resources to back it up makes it easier for them.
Kind of like China. Imagine if China suddenly went on strike, the world is pretty much at their knees at this time.

Offline xfreidax

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #57 on: October 12, 2016, 06:40:38 am »
There will always be a tipping point when factors like demand, cost, technology etc align to make change in an industry inevitable. When it happens it's always disruptive producing winners and losers. No amount of vested interests can prevent such change. You either adapt or be left with your gas guzzling car searching for that elusive gas station.  ;D

Offline Saras

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #58 on: October 13, 2016, 01:19:18 am »
Still, let's not forget that while technology does indeed create new jobs, it isn't always at a 1:1 ratio. The jobs the absolute majority of the society does are effectively ancient as all fuck and have been with us since time immemorial.

What's the basis for this? Machines have been replacing human jobs since the first industrial revolution. Somehow there isn't massive unemployment... I wonder why that is. If what you said is true, there certainly should be, but there isn't.

Yes. In time

What concerns mankind as a whole, the industrial revolution was a great boon. That's mankind as a whole. What concerns individuals living through the transition, it was either a hit or a miss. If you were someone that bought textiles or the like, you were happy as fuck. If you relied on the jobs that it replaced, well, you were honestly fucked. Depending on the environment and how its economy was centred and balanced, it was equitable to genocide, for certain areas.

The problem isn't the post-automation society, it is the transition to it. Once we're past the transition we'll have figured shit out one way or another, the people will have adapted and it won't be an issue anymore.

If we take the US, there are currently ~3 million people employed as drivers. Human labour is both A) expensive compared to technology and B) significantly riskier. Given just good enough and legal enough self driving car alternatives, basically everyone is going to jump ship. That means you'll have to figure out what to do with 3 million people who probably don't have any relevant skills anymore. That's the problem, not 20 years after that already happened.


More like because it would upset our economy too much.
Take electric cars, which were invented before petroleum powered vehicles by the way.
Imagine suddenly all fuel stations only supply electricity. What happens to the profits from gas guzzling cars? Where do people who can't afford to buy a new electric car get fuel from?

Certain people control the world, naturally if you upset their income they're gonna do something about it, and having the resources to back it up makes it easier for them.
Kind of like China. Imagine if China suddenly went on strike, the world is pretty much at their knees at this time.

The answer is the same as it was with horses.

Everyone, well you know what I mean, had horses. Horses were the cars of the society, until cars got invented. There were many many jobs designed to cater to horse owners, the economy was based around horses and that is what people had. Then came the car, there were no petrol stations everywhere, no mechanics, the car was too expensive to own for anyone that wasn't rich...

Yet somehow, there are no "work" horses left, you'd have to go to somewhere in the middle of nowhere to find actual work being done with a horse. What happened to the profits from horses? How do the people who can't afford a car get around?
« Last Edit: October 13, 2016, 01:34:37 am by Saras »

Offline Krudda

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Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need A Guaranteed Basic Income
« Reply #59 on: October 13, 2016, 02:09:10 am »
I was thinking more along the lines of what businesses will do. They either invest massive sums of money in the new technology, risking financial flop from over-expansion (more assets and cost than turnover produced in a period to sustain them additional to paying for them), or they keep using the current gear and adapt to the situation, risking obsoletion and excessive manufacturing / maintenance costs, resulting in cheaper competition and thus losing sales.

You either update and risk emptying the bank for a while, relying on future sales or you stick with relying on collateral at the expense of outdated technology resulting in a more expensive product. People will likely buy the cheaper one more, so you go bankrupt from lack of sales.