Author Topic: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached  (Read 921 times)

Offline DespondenSea

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2017, 04:38:59 am »
You are assuming Republicans are acting rationally.

I'm assuming Republicans will act in their own self-interest.

Offline Burkingam

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2017, 06:02:12 am »
You are assuming Republicans are acting rationally.

I'm assuming Republicans will act in their own self-interest.
That's a pretty big assumption.
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Offline DespondenSea

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2017, 06:16:42 am »
You are assuming Republicans are acting rationally.

I'm assuming Republicans will act in their own self-interest.
That's a pretty big assumption.

I disagree.

While I strongly disagree with a number of their political positions, they've proven to have good survival instincts.

Offline Burkingam

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #23 on: February 02, 2017, 06:42:19 am »
The future will tell.
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Offline Ixarku

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2017, 12:19:29 pm »
Yeah, the Electoral College has turned into 1) a rubber stamp of approval and 2) a way for politicians to gerrymander the vote (and republicans are better at this than democrats). It's so laughable when people scream for electors to "do their duty" to vote the way the state voted. That's not their duty at all  :no:

Correct.  The main problems with the Electoral College are a) the winner-takes-all system, and b) the appointment of electors who are hardcore party loyalists.  IIRC, Madison was firmly against the latter, as he favored the idea of an educated, intellectual elite who would serve as a check on the will of the uneducated voting masses.  As far as winner-takes-all, it was intended to ensure that there was always a clear victor at the national level, and to prevent the diffusion of state power.  Like, if all of the electors for big state #1 vote the same way, then if all of the electors of state #2 aren't united and don't do the same, then their voice gets overwhelmed by state #1.  Personally, I think it's a pretty dumb thing to be concerned with, and the combination of a) and b) leads to unreasonably lopsided results in the electoral college when the national race is very close in a number of the larger states.

The third issue I have with the electoral college is more of a matter of opinion, which is how voters in less populated states are given greater power on a per-vote basis than voters in more populous states.  Some people think this is a great idea -- we are a republic, after all, and not a pure democracy.  Personally, I favor a strong federal government with weaker state governments.  I don't think any single person's vote should count more than anyone else's either.



Depends on how badly Republicans feel Trump will damage their long-term image and American international relations.

This is the key.  Remember that the Republicans expected to lose big time going into this election, and most were just as surprised as the rest of us that Trump won.  However, most Republican politicians are party loyalists first, and everything else second.  They will stand by Trump even through major controversies and even while he deviates from Republican norms or simple common sense, making public condemnations of his actions while still voting to support him.  Just pay attention to the news and you'll see this is already happening.  Republicans will only turn on Trump in large numbers if Trump's supporters among the voters turn on him first, because those are the same voters that put those Republicans in office in the first place.
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Offline DespondenSea

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #25 on: February 02, 2017, 05:11:11 pm »
Trump has already hit 52% disapproval rating according to Gallup's polls, and his popularity is floating around 42-43%.

That's not damning yet, but it likely will be.

Trump has a very devoted base, but his actions and rhetoric are aimed only at appealing to that base, and they antagonize and alienate everyone else.

Point of that being, he can't and won't make allies or gain supporters, but he still has the ability to piss off the ones he has.


Offline halfelite

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #26 on: February 02, 2017, 07:56:41 pm »
Trump has already hit 52% disapproval rating according to Gallup's polls, and his popularity is floating around 42-43%.

That's not damning yet, but it likely will be.

Trump has a very devoted base, but his actions and rhetoric are aimed only at appealing to that base, and they antagonize and alienate everyone else.

Point of that being, he can't and won't make allies or gain supporters, but he still has the ability to piss off the ones he has.

The polls are not all that surprising. They actually match pretty close to the voter polls.  I am not sure how Gallups does its polls but to get a true number you would have to ask who the person voted for originally and how they feel now. Remember Trump only had 46% of the total vote counts and Hilary had 48.2%.  So if you look at that going off the Popularity and Disapproval and say everyone who voted was polled there is only a 3% shift which is not huge at all.  I am not a huge fan of polls unless they tell how they got the numbers. If you polled 100 people in LA city you would get a 100% disapproval rating and if you polled in the heart of Texas you might get a 100% approval rating. 

Offline megido-rev.M

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #27 on: February 03, 2017, 02:17:27 am »
Trump has already hit 52% disapproval rating according to Gallup's polls

In just over a week ;D.
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Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #29 on: February 17, 2017, 11:20:22 pm »
Ohhh shit. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-intelligence-community-ready-go-nuclear-donald-trump-russia-nsa-a7585926.html

Quote
Security consultant and ex-National Security Agency (NSA) employee, John Schindler said he had received an email from a senior intelligence agent discussing the President.

It opened with the words: "He will die in jail", he said.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 11:25:43 pm by Tiffanys »

Offline Ixarku

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #30 on: February 18, 2017, 01:11:35 am »
Ohhh shit. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-intelligence-community-ready-go-nuclear-donald-trump-russia-nsa-a7585926.html

Quote
Security consultant and ex-National Security Agency (NSA) employee, John Schindler said he had received an email from a senior intelligence agent discussing the President.

It opened with the words: "He will die in jail", he said.


I see some fightin' words here, and I'll admit it, I'm intrigued, but I'll believe it when I see it.
If I ever meet God in person, I'm going to ask Him why he created so many stupid people, and then punch Him in the nose before he answers.

Offline DespondenSea

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2017, 06:21:23 pm »
^Same.

Trump is certainly unprofessional and incompetent, but those aren't necessarily criminal offenses.

However, his inability to be transparent, his conflicts of interest, and the ties of major members of his inner circle to Russia will likely lead to investigations and hearings. That's where I see him getting into trouble. He would attempt to do damage control by getting rid of anything incriminating, and if there's an ongoing investigation, that IS criminal.

Offline Tiffanys

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #32 on: February 19, 2017, 09:29:05 pm »
Didn't Bill Clinton get impeached for lying to the American people? "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." Bam. Impeachment. Trump lies every single day like a big lie tornado just throwing lies and feces all over the fucking place.

I guess all it would really take is getting him under oath for practically anything because you know that orange moron would perjure himself in under a minute.

Offline Tanis

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #33 on: February 19, 2017, 11:59:57 pm »
'impeached' and 'tossed out on this ass' are two different things.

I could see Trump getting impeached...if the Dems win during the mid-term elections.

But...totally kicked out?
Eh...not as long as the Reps put party over country.

Offline DespondenSea

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2017, 12:18:20 am »
Didn't Bill Clinton get impeached for lying to the American people? "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." Bam. Impeachment. Trump lies every single day like a big lie tornado just throwing lies and feces all over the fucking place.

I guess all it would really take is getting him under oath for practically anything because you know that orange moron would perjure himself in under a minute.

Bill Clinton was never impeached.

Impeachment proceedings were filed (two charges of perjury, one of abuse of power, and one of obstruction of justice), but he was acquitted. He did, however, receive a contempt of court citation for false testimony.

Congress needs two-thirds of its members (67) to vote guilty for the impeachment to pass. Given the hyper-partisan atmosphere, that would require around twenty Republicans voting 'guilty' against Trump, and as of now, that is extremely unlikely.

Offline Ixarku

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2017, 12:45:00 am »
Didn't Bill Clinton get impeached for lying to the American people? "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." Bam. Impeachment. Trump lies every single day like a big lie tornado just throwing lies and feces all over the fucking place.

I guess all it would really take is getting him under oath for practically anything because you know that orange moron would perjure himself in under a minute.

Bill Clinton was never impeached.

Impeachment proceedings were filed (two charges of perjury, one of abuse of power, and one of obstruction of justice), but he was acquitted. He did, however, receive a contempt of court citation for false testimony.

Congress needs two-thirds of its members (67) to vote guilty for the impeachment to pass. Given the hyper-partisan atmosphere, that would require around twenty Republicans voting 'guilty' against Trump, and as of now, that is extremely unlikely.

Actually, Clinton did in fact get impeached.  He was not convicted.  Those are two distinct actions under the Constitution.

I think there will be plenty of justifications to impeach Trump if the opportunity arises, but, yeah, I think it's a snowball's chance in Hell that it will actually happen at any point.


If I ever meet God in person, I'm going to ask Him why he created so many stupid people, and then punch Him in the nose before he answers.

Offline DespondenSea

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #36 on: February 20, 2017, 12:51:20 am »
Good point.

I was thinking of impeachment as a punishment, not a process.

It's the difference between being tried and being convicted.

Offline Ixarku

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Re: Predict how long it takes before Trump is impeached
« Reply #37 on: February 20, 2017, 12:10:42 pm »
Good point.

I was thinking of impeachment as a punishment, not a process.

It's the difference between being tried and being convicted.

Yeah just about.  I would say impeachment by the House is equivalent to being indicted/charged, and the action in the Senate is the trial and conviction part.  The punishment, of course, is being removed from office.
If I ever meet God in person, I'm going to ask Him why he created so many stupid people, and then punch Him in the nose before he answers.