Author Topic: Worldwide oil production already maxed?  (Read 7397 times)

Offline fuddle36767

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Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« on: June 18, 2008, 09:44:34 AM »
I had a discussion with a friend this weekend, where he stated that Saudi Arabia and OPEC were cutting their own throats with these unprecedented oil prices.  I suggested that perhaps that it's not the will of increasing production, but the actual capability.  Since oil production capacity in Saudi Arabia is top secret, no one can say for sure, but I think their production is already topped out.  Look at their casual rebuff of Bush recently.  Bush asked for increased production, and they replied that no customer who wanted oil didn't NOT receive a shipment.  If that was true, oil prices would not have skyrocketed as they have recently.

I think that OPEC and the Saudi's know that these absurd prices are not conducive for long term oil dependency.  It's like the only drug dealer in town who charges too much for their goods--their customers will either kick or get caught stealing too much (and go to jail) to get their fix.  Alternative energy research is not cost effective as long as traditional energy sources are cheap.



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Offline AceHigh

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2008, 10:55:55 AM »
Don't worry, western world makes new technologies to pump out higher percentage of oil then before. Kongsberg Offshore (which was bought by FMC Corp. and now it's called FMC Technologies) creates a lot of sophisticated subsea systems like horizontal wells, subsea processing system and subsea trees.

Here is more:
Quote
More than half of the total oil resources remains to be produced and could provide the basis for another 50 years of oil production. Even though the potential for future value creation from the remaining oil resources is great, it will require dedication and rethinking from all involved parties to realise this potential.


Increased Oil Recovery from the mature areas is time-critical, and will hence be a main challenge in the years to come.
FMC Technologies have developed solutions to meet with these challenges. Solutions including Riserless Light Well Intervention (RLWI), Subsea Processing and Through Tubing Rotary Drilling (TTRD). 

Do you honestly think that we got 24% of Stockman field because we have pretty eyes? Russians knew that with that technology we will pump out more. Americans and Norwegians use it already, it's a matter of time before many other nations will use the technology. On second hand this technology could be a bargaining chip with OPEC.

Oh, and me promoting FMC has totally nothing to do with the fact that my mom works there  ::)

Here is more info about gas compression method for whoever is interested.
For one thing, Tiff is not on any level what I would call a typical American.  She's not what I would consider a typical person.  I don't know any other genius geneticist anime-fan martial artist marksman model-level beauties, do you?

Offline mgz

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2008, 12:20:06 PM »
I had a discussion with a friend this weekend, where he stated that Saudi Arabia and OPEC were cutting their own throats with these unprecedented oil prices.  I suggested that perhaps that it's not the will of increasing production, but the actual capability.  Since oil production capacity in Saudi Arabia is top secret, no one can say for sure, but I think their production is already topped out.  Look at their casual rebuff of Bush recently.  Bush asked for increased production, and they replied that no customer who wanted oil didn't NOT receive a shipment.  If that was true, oil prices would not have skyrocketed as they have recently.

I think that OPEC and the Saudi's know that these absurd prices are not conducive for long term oil dependency.  It's like the only drug dealer in town who charges too much for their goods--their customers will either kick or get caught stealing too much (and go to jail) to get their fix.  Alternative energy research is not cost effective as long as traditional energy sources are cheap.




the saudis dont actually put out any numbers on their stockpiles,
but i read somewhere that they arent able to put out in any way shape or form more then 2 million barrels a day more then they produce now as it stands,
i think america was is requesting a million a day in increased production. However some people speculate increasing production 500k barrels a day would function just fine and not stress their production capabilities

Offline vicious796

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2008, 12:34:11 PM »
Perhaps this is the best place to place this article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080618/ap_on_go_pr_wh/offshore_oil


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Offline AceHigh

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2008, 12:53:32 PM »
Perhaps this is the best place to place this article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080618/ap_on_go_pr_wh/offshore_oil

Beautiful. I support that 110%. If there is a topic where Obama will lose, then it's this one. The technology that can be delivered will make the drilling more discrete: where there will be one oil rig on the surface and hundreds of hubs and processing systems below water. Hell, if it's shallow enough or very close to the shore, then we don't need to make an oil rig at all.

I think people can tolerate something like this:


As for disasters, just have stricter hazard prevention procedures.
For one thing, Tiff is not on any level what I would call a typical American.  She's not what I would consider a typical person.  I don't know any other genius geneticist anime-fan martial artist marksman model-level beauties, do you?

Offline kagerato

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2008, 10:08:25 PM »
Peak oil is not far off, if indeed it hasn't been hit already.  There's only so much oil available, and world demand is still growing.

Drilling the remaining oil left in America is a waste of time, effort, and the surrounding environment.  We have ~2% of the world's confirmed supply and it takes decades for wells to hit peak production.  Expanding production is yet one more way the Republicans are aiming the increase oil profits (as though they weren't high enough already).  The actual impact on the price of gasoline for the average consumer would fluctuate only by fifteen or twenty cents, and that would not be seen until years down the road.

It's long past time that we became fully committed investment to new and long-lasting energy sources.

Offline AceHigh

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2008, 10:21:26 PM »
Peak oil is not far off, if indeed it hasn't been hit already.  There's only so much oil available, and world demand is still growing.

Considering the fact that in the old days with the old technology we were pumping out less then 50%, I would say that "There is only twice so much oil available".

Yes, oil will end one day, but before that happens we will make technology to:

-Pump it out close to 100%
-Build equipment anywhere on ocean floor no matter the depth
-Make horizontal drilling (already in progress.
-Drill deeper
-have better equipment to find more oil deeper underground

So chill, I am not going over to solar panels yet.
For one thing, Tiff is not on any level what I would call a typical American.  She's not what I would consider a typical person.  I don't know any other genius geneticist anime-fan martial artist marksman model-level beauties, do you?

Offline kagerato

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2008, 11:04:25 PM »
Considering the fact that in the old days with the old technology we were pumping out less then 50%, I would say that "There is only twice so much oil available".

Yes, oil will end one day, but before that happens we will make technology to:

-Pump it out close to 100%
-Build equipment anywhere on ocean floor no matter the depth
-Make horizontal drilling (already in progress.
-Drill deeper
-have better equipment to find more oil deeper underground

So chill, I am not going over to solar panels yet.

The core concept behind peak oil is that after production passes the halfway point (that is, half of all supply has been consumed) it is impossible to raise production.  That includes consideration of all improved drilling processes.  There's a great deal of information about the subject on wiki and elsewhere if you'd like to read the details.

Offline AceHigh

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2008, 11:31:44 PM »
You honestly think that we found all of it? And you honestly think that we pumped out half of it? I am sure there is more out there laying undiscovered due to poor technology.
For one thing, Tiff is not on any level what I would call a typical American.  She's not what I would consider a typical person.  I don't know any other genius geneticist anime-fan martial artist marksman model-level beauties, do you?

Offline Xzanith

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2008, 11:59:03 PM »
From what I hear we already have some fairly effective alternative energy sources, some more developed than others.  But if we hit a point where oil is either running out or becomes to impractical to use as a main source of energy then out of all these alternative energy's (and ones that will arise between now and then assuming that day comes) there will be at least a few or one that can be use to generate enough energy to keep society running.     

Or at least that's my opinion, but what do I know (Not much).

Offline bcr123

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2008, 12:15:07 AM »
It doesn't really matter if Peak oil has already happened or not.

When Oil becomes more expensive than the alternatives we will stop using so much of it, until then people will just complain about the price.  We are currently living in a worldwide oil economy,  "cheap" oil drives much of world GDP. There was a stone age, a Bronze age, and Iron age we are currently in the Oil age, it too will eventually come to an end and be replaced most likely by solar and geothermal at this point unless we get controlled fusion working.

All the energy stored in oil, coal and natural gas came from the sun originally living creatures captured that energy over millions of years and stored it eventually becoming those things, we can re-create that process today but much faster in the lab/factory but the raw materials are still more valuable than oil.

Offline Pigeon

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2008, 07:51:57 AM »
I think people can tolerate something like this:
This is environmentalist politics we're talking about. 0.2% of the US population lives in Alaska. Maybe about 10% of the Alaskan population lives anywhere near the areas affected by Alaskan drilling. Even if the only known method to drill in Alaska resulted in the death of all life of any kind within 200 miles, less than 60,000 people, probably less, would be affected.

Yet there is immense opposition to drilling in Alaska.

edit: same BS applies to nuclear power.

Offline AceHigh

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2008, 08:40:45 AM »
I think people can tolerate something like this:
This is environmentalist politics we're talking about. 0.2% of the US population lives in Alaska. Maybe about 10% of the Alaskan population lives anywhere near the areas affected by Alaskan drilling. Even if the only known method to drill in Alaska resulted in the death of all life of any kind within 200 miles, less than 60,000 people, probably less, would be affected.

Yet there is immense opposition to drilling in Alaska.

edit: same BS applies to nuclear power.

I know, it's a complete bullshit, isn't it? I have always wondered how a small minority of people with those opinions are actually heard. However it may be that they use the fact that people try to be political correct. Even if majority have the opinion that they need more nuclear power plants and oil, they will not admit it openly, so they don't seem like heartless bastards who don't care about mutated frogs or whales that get murdered by the drill. (Yeah my mom told me the stories how she saw some curious whales get killed by the drilling equipment when they got too close).
For one thing, Tiff is not on any level what I would call a typical American.  She's not what I would consider a typical person.  I don't know any other genius geneticist anime-fan martial artist marksman model-level beauties, do you?

Online xShadow

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2008, 02:47:10 PM »
No matter how much is available now, the point is that it's like finding a needle in a haystack at this point. I don't know actual figures, but I would think that drilling for new oil is extremely expensive, and hard on any company that's wanting to do it.

Fifty years may be half of a human's life span (maybe more), but it's not that long of a time, overall. Oil can pretty much be considered a nonrenewable resource. Though it does get renewed (it does, right?), it takes thousands and thousands of years for it to build up to any actual number. The oil that humans are currently using took hundreds of thousands of years to be developed by the Earth; no one was pumping it out, either.

We just seriously need to start moving on to alternative energy sources. From what one of my teachers told me, superconductors are currently in the making. Just one small superconductor could power Los Angeles for a bit. Try sticking that thing in a car; it could run for like a year before needing a recharge. >_>


Well, whatever, talking about this is pointless; I'm guessing most of the people in the energy departments and everything are already discussing this at length, and working on it... and aren't bribed by rich oil companies... or anything... *Optimism decreasing*

Cute, huh?

Offline kureshii

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2008, 03:12:49 PM »
O_o superconductors can power cars...? Wow, I'd love to see that. A superconductor is just a conductor with negligible or no internal resistance, it doesn't produce power on its own.

Current implementations are impractical for power transmission since they have ridiculous requirements like extremely low temperature; you'd use more power trying to refrigerate the setup than you'd save by lowering transmission resistance.

They are usually used for extremely high-power applications or research, where internal resistance would cause immensely resistance heating.

Short-term developments are still open to debate, but I believe it's safe to say that the future is most likely powered by alternative energy.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2008, 03:18:48 PM by kureshii »

Offline Therion77

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2008, 03:26:30 PM »
We just seriously need to start moving on to alternative energy sources. From what one of my teachers told me, superconductors are currently in the making. Just one small superconductor could power Los Angeles for a bit. Try sticking that thing in a car; it could run for like a year before needing a recharge. >_>

Superconductor isn't alternative energy source.  ::)

Superconductor doesn't make energy, superconductor is more like electrical wire that when you get it at very low temperature (near absolute zero) it's resistance to electrical current goes to zero.
It can be used to transmit eletrical power and storage it... but you have to make that energy with something else.

Offline mgz

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2008, 06:12:46 PM »
Considering the fact that in the old days with the old technology we were pumping out less then 50%, I would say that "There is only twice so much oil available".

Yes, oil will end one day, but before that happens we will make technology to:

-Pump it out close to 100%
-Build equipment anywhere on ocean floor no matter the depth
-Make horizontal drilling (already in progress.
-Drill deeper
-have better equipment to find more oil deeper underground

So chill, I am not going over to solar panels yet.

The core concept behind peak oil is that after production passes the halfway point (that is, half of all supply has been consumed) it is impossible to raise production.  That includes consideration of all improved drilling processes.  There's a great deal of information about the subject on wiki and elsewhere if you'd like to read the details.

im pretty sure hes talking about production capabilities IE he means run them balls out .

however relying on oil is fucking stupid considering the validity of other forms of energy production or if nothing else refining oils use to only vehicles would drop usage SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOO MUCH.

Nuclear energy ftw

Offline lemonseed

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2008, 07:48:39 PM »
he means japan recently unveiled a prototype of an automobile with superconductor motors that runs on batteries but is 5% more energy efficient than similar battery cars.

Offline mgz

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2008, 08:34:53 PM »
in closing YOUR TEACHER IS A FUCKING RETARD LOL call him out on that shit ive made student teachers quit cuz they were spouting bullshit and i made them stumble through admitting their wrongness

Offline kagerato

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Re: Worldwide oil production already maxed?
« Reply #19 on: June 20, 2008, 12:16:47 AM »
I think people can tolerate something like this:
This is environmentalist politics we're talking about. 0.2% of the US population lives in Alaska. Maybe about 10% of the Alaskan population lives anywhere near the areas affected by Alaskan drilling. Even if the only known method to drill in Alaska resulted in the death of all life of any kind within 200 miles, less than 60,000 people, probably less, would be affected.

Yet there is immense opposition to drilling in Alaska.

edit: same BS applies to nuclear power.

The principles behind conservationism and environmentalism are not based upon the direct impact disturbing wild areas has on people.  It's true, there's practically no direct impact.  Rather, the motives are a combination of several factors:

a.) Preserving wildlife in its full diversity.
b.) Providing pristine lands for people to explore purely for leisure.
c.) Giving a choice to future generations about what the best use of undeveloped land is.

The opposition to Nuclear fission that arose during the 1970s was based in entirely different reasoning.  Nuclear power plants, after all, are   generally built near population centers, not out in the middle of nowhere -- it's an energy transmission efficiency issue.  (Light water reactors need  a substantial water source, so that also limits where you can put them.)

What really killed the nuclear power industry in the U.S. was the Three Mile Island incident in 1979.  The reactor containment vessel actually worked as intended, but for some reason they decided to vent excess steam and hydrogen straight into the atmosphere.  Naturally some radioactive isotopes were carried along for the ride, although the overall exposure to individual citizens did not exceed ~100 Millirem.  That's quite a few x-rays, but probably not enough to cause noticeable harm.

Three Mile Island was fundamentally a loss of coolant accident.  There were several chances during the development of the incident which could have prevented it, but ignorance on the part of the operators as to the actual state of the reactor prevented correct action.  (Part of this ignorance was caused by the lack of any instrument to directly read the water level in the core.)  Even when the containment building sump (a low section that catches fluid) started filling up, which would generally be a clear indication of loss of coolant, the operators made no response.  Errors like these compounded until the reactor was no longer salvageable.

The decline of nuclear fission plant construction wasn't cause solely by Three Mile Island.  After the 1973 oil shock that substantially damaged the economy, some analyses of electric energy demand concluded that overcapacity existed.  As a result, at least 40 planned nuclear fission plants never went into production.

I favor progression of research in nuclear reactor design, especially the Integral Fast Reactor.  This uses liquid sodium as the coolant, which alleviates the need for highly pressurized water.  As a result, the reactor core is close to ambient pressure, and the chance of a loss of coolant accident are remarkably tiny.  The drawback to liquid sodium is that it reacts rapidly with air or water, and so must be carefully controlled to prevent sodium fires (air mixture) or outright explosions (mixture with water).  The danger is dramatically reduced by the introduction of an intermediary loop between the reactor (sodium source) and the turbines (water source).  With this, any explosion that may occur between sodium+water reactions would be contained away from the reactor core.  Naturally, this extra but necessary complexity raises the cost of the design.

Integral Fast Reactors are also designed to be used as breeder reactors with fuel reprocessing.  It has been estimated that they can achieve ~99.5% energy extraction from the nuclear fuels given the correct processes.  This compares unbelievably favorably with standard light-water single-process reactors, which harness only a meager ~1%.  A substantial additional advantage to breeding and reprocessing is that the final products are much less radioactive, on the order of about 200 years to reach natural ore radioactivity.  This is much better than several thousands of years and makes it feasible to store practically all waste on site until it is safe to move elsewhere.

The opposition to breeder reactors is mostly based on nuclear weapons proliferation fears, which are largely unfounded.  Although the reactor does produce plutonium, it is not weapons grade and is intermixed with other fuel metals.  The high radioactivity of the mixed fuel source also damages purity by producing isotopes not desired for weapons fuel.  Most importantly, the plutonium used by the reactor never needs to leave the plant site.  This makes protecting the fuels a simple matter of properly securing the reactor, something which is generally already done.  Indeed, the total amount of radioactive material leaving a well-designed breeder reactor would be significantly less than a typical light water reactor.

The other major, practical contender for the energy market is solar, either photovoltaics, solar thermal, or both.  Solar has the significant advantage of locality, meaning that you can produce energy very near to where it is actually being consumed.  This both increases grid efficiency and makes the overall energy infrastructure more robust and less centralized.  However, solar naturally does not work at night; as a result, it is necessary to have a significant storage system for handling night-time use.  Further, locations too far from the equator do not receive a high enough intensity of sunlight to be feasible without mirrors or other concentration methods.

Producing photovoltaics has the moderate issue that some relatively rare metals like Indium are required.  However, the world supply of Indium has been deemed adequate to meet predicted demand.  (Consider that Silver, a rarer element, is mined at roughly three times the rate per year.)  Efficiency of solar cells has also been questioned.  Average efficiency of basic mass-produced cells is generally between 10 and 15 percent.  Specialized cells that capture multiple segments of the electromagnetic spectrum are able to reach and even break efficiencies of 40 percent, although they are naturally more complicated designs to produce.

For very warm climates with lots of relatively flat, open land (say, desert) solar thermal is an excellent power generator.  It is an extremely simple technology, easy to make and easy to deploy.  Large sheets of metal are laid out and warmed by the sun; mirrors are used to concentrate sunlight in a limited region.  The metal is connected to water or another medium that can extract the thermal energy. In hot climates like southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida this type of system can scale to meet practically any level of energy demand at an affordable cost.  When operating temperature is raised enough, water can be swapped out for a dry heat exchange mechanism.  This substantially reduces water use and is of great use in the desert where water is scarce.