Author Topic: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works  (Read 4435 times)

Offline Semnae

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The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« on: August 15, 2009, 11:08:56 AM »
So what does high debt mean event? People keep talking about it but only use as if it was the bogeyman don't turn your back or the debt will get you.

That's a really good question, and I'm starting a new thread because I feel that a large number of people don't know, and I don't want the other thread to go too far off topic.

The national debts of all the countries of the world exist in the form of securities, which are essentially contracts that can be assigned a value and traded, like stocks.  Debt in in the form of securities are called bonds and government bonds are called treasuries.  When a government issues a bond, what they are actually doing is selling their debt.  Investors, which in this case are called creditors, buy the national debt because they receive interest payments, much like when you borrow money from a credit card company or a bank.  Companies often sell their debt as well, but stable government bonds are a much lower risk investment because their primary source of income is taxes rather than profits.  The interest rate is called the coupon, and the date on which the issuer must repay the amount borrowed (often called the face value, the par value, or the principle) is called the maturity date.

There are three types of treasuries: t-bonds, t-notes, and t-bills.  T-bonds have a maturity date beyond 10 years, t-notes are 1 to 10 years, and t-bills are within a year.  It is important to note that the issuer of a bond sets the maturity date.  If the government decides they need to sell a large amount of debt right away, we don't need to pay it back all at the same time.  This makes repaying our debt more manageable, but keep in mind that the longer the treasuries are issued, the longer the US government will have to pay interest on the loan.  The national debt clocks you see that show the national debt increasing at a rate of about $3.88 billion per day are calculating the increase in the US national debt due to interest.

Governments have credit ratings, just like individuals who use credit cards.  The US national debt is approaching $12 trillion, but the US government credit rating is perfect.  This is accomplished by moving money around between creditors.  When a treasury reaches maturity, and the United States government does not have the money, it issues another treasury to pay off the previous treasury.  The United States government makes sure that the governments credit rating remains spotless so that United States treasuries will continue to be a good investment, and creditors will continue to buy our debt.  There is, however, a limit to this.  Each individual creditor has a maximum limit to the amount they can invest, and there's a limited number of people in the world capable of buying our debt.  As the national debt increases, we are approaching an undefined point where there will be nobody left to buy our debt.

There are a limited number of ways to reduce the debt.  First, there's the classic raise taxes/cut spending approach.  Neither are popular, and the two major political parties insist on only one or the other, where as the plan only works when both are done together.  A second way debt is often reduced is by debt forgiveness.  This is usually in exchange for political favors that may be more advantageous to the creditor than collecting on their treasury.  A third means is the sale of state property.  A fourth is economic Socialism, in which the government runs a particular industry and turns a profit.  A fifth is to eliminate the creditor, since you can't pay someone back that no longer exists.  Some good old fashioned pillaging would help the situation as well.  The sixth is to print more currency, which has the effect of decreasing its value. (Edit: Printing more money is done by borrowing from the federal reserve, which increases the national debt.)  The seventh is extortion.  Threats from a world superpower can pressure smaller nations to giving money.  The eighth and extremely unlikely method of reducing the debt is liquidation, which means the United States government would be disbanded, and its states and property would be divided up between the creditors.

Critics of the United States argue that the US national debt is increasing so fast, that there's nothing the government can do to stop it any more, and that the United States is on the verge of destruction.  While this may sound like a crazy doomsday theory, it may hold some merit.  Theoretically, there is a point where interest rates will increase the national debt so rapidly that taking all options except liquidation to their furthest extreme will not stop its increase.  Such a point would be impossible to define precisely.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2009, 01:05:06 AM by Semnae »

darkjedi

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2009, 11:19:32 AM »
One question is, just where the hell is the U.S. accumulating these debts from?

Are they overextending their political and military interests so far and wide, that their economy cannot keep up with the demands anymore?

Offline Sosseres

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2009, 11:26:54 AM »
One question is, just where the hell is the U.S. accumulating these debts from?

Are they overextending their political and military interests so far and wide, that their economy cannot keep up with the demands anymore?

http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/fy10-newera.pdf p114 and forward

Offline Spanks

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2009, 11:58:55 AM »
The US national debt is approaching $12 trillion, but the US government credit rating is perfect. 

WOW everyone in my country is having a spit because of something like a 300 Billion dollar national dept this year.

Already understand National dept etc but i didn't know the USA had such a large national dept.
"I ain't scared of heights. It's the ground that kills ya!"

darkjedi

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2009, 12:23:40 PM »
WOW everyone in my country is having a spit because of something like a 300 Billion dollar national dept this year.

Same as Korea.

Where are you from?

Offline Spanks

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2009, 12:54:27 PM »
WOW everyone in my country is having a spit because of something like a 300 Billion dollar national dept this year.

Same as Korea.

Where are you from?

thought we already went over this ;)
"I ain't scared of heights. It's the ground that kills ya!"

darkjedi

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2009, 01:00:25 PM »
Wow lol xD

Gyahahaha sorry im sadly deficient when it comes to rote learning lol

I likely won't memorize your nationality unless I repeatedly remind myself 'Dontcarett is from Malaysia Dontcarett is from Malaysia...'

Offline Proin Drakenzol

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2009, 02:12:03 PM »
There is actually a 9th way, which is far more likely than #8.


The United States would absolve itself of debt.

The government can, and, if necessary, will, simply tell a certain number (which may or may not be all) of the creditors that we cannot pay back the debt and therefore will not pay back the debt.

While a suboptimal choice that should very much be avoided there's not much other countries can do about it.

After all, any country that really pushes it to the point of war will get their money back... in the form of missiles to the face.

The linear nature of your Euclidean geometry both confounds and befuddles me.

darkjedi

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2009, 02:17:00 PM »
Just what kind of creditors are we dealing with? Small-time businessmen like Bill Gates or some such, or an entire business federation interconnected with various nations?

Offline Semnae

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2009, 02:34:47 PM »
Just what kind of creditors are we dealing with? Small-time businessmen like Bill Gates or some such, or an entire business federation interconnected with various nations?

A creditor is simply anyone who buys debt.  Other governments, like China, are major creditors for US treasuries.  Bill Gates almost certainly has US treasuries in his portfolio.  You or I could also go to an online broker and by some US treasuries.  It's just like buying stock.  The vast majority of US debt is owed to American citizens.

darkjedi

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2009, 02:39:16 PM »
So America declaring war on its creditors would basically mean America declaring war on itself.

How many would they need to kill?

Offline Semnae

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2009, 03:16:22 PM »
The vast majority of US debt is owed to American citizens.

My mistake.  The vast majority of US debt is owned by the Federal Reserve.

Quote
The Federal Reserve

The Intergovernmental Holdings section refers primarily to governmental borrowing from the Federal Reserve. This is sometimes referred to incorrectly as "the government borrowing from itself".

To begin with, the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks are private institutions operating collectively in a quasi-governmental capacity. When the government spends more than it receives in tax revenue, it experiences a budget deficit. To make up this shortfall, it issues new debt. This takes the form of treasuries that are sold on the open market. When there is not sufficient interest in the open market to buy up the required number of treasuries, the government will turn to the Federal Reserve, otherwise known as the "lender of the last resort".

When the government "borrows" from the Federal Reserve, both the treasuries and the money are literally created out of thin air. These newly acquired government securities increase the assets of the Federal Reserve Bank. This enables it to lend out many times that amount through the fractional reserve banking system. The process, known as "monetizing the debt", is inflationary.

For example, let us assume that the legislated reserve ratio is 10% and the government requires US$10 billion from the Federal Reserve to cover a shortfall. The government creates US$10 billion in government bonds to give to the Federal Reserve who issues US$10 billion in newly created money to the government. Interest payments on these bonds are paid for by tax revenue and/or additional deficit spending. The Federal Reserve may now legally lend out US$100 billion.

This credit expansion as a direct result of the U.S. government borrowing from the Federal Reserve dilutes the value of all outstanding currency. When the value of the dollar goes down, prices go up. In effect, it is theft from everyone who holds U.S. currency because they can now buy less with it today than they could have before. -DollarDaze.org

How many would they need to kill?

Hmmm... I don't think I could give you an exact number.  They'd have to start with all the rich people, then work their way down into the upper middle class.  Poor people don't have the money to do investing, so there shouldn't be any reason to kill them off.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2009, 03:28:26 PM by Semnae »

Offline Proin Drakenzol

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2009, 07:58:40 PM »
So America declaring war on its creditors would basically mean America declaring war on itself.

How many would they need to kill?


/facepalm

If the US absolved its debt then the only entities that could push the issue would be other countries.

America would not declare war on its creditors. It would declare war on countries that declared war on it. Those countries, in this scenario, would just happen to be creditors.

The linear nature of your Euclidean geometry both confounds and befuddles me.

Offline Spanks

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2009, 10:23:46 PM »
Wow lol xD

Gyahahaha sorry im sadly deficient when it comes to rote learning lol

I likely won't memorize your nationality unless I repeatedly remind myself 'Dontcarett is from Malaysia Dontcarett is from Malaysia...'

I hope you typed that with your sarcasm tab.

US: "I'm sorry i cant pay my depts"
Rest of the world: "Well then. I guess i can't trade with you"
POOF the world goes to shit

You know the US relies on the rest of the world and the rest of world relies on the US, have you heard of a thing called "Financial crisis"?
"I ain't scared of heights. It's the ground that kills ya!"

Offline Jski

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2009, 11:23:23 PM »
Wow lol xD

Gyahahaha sorry im sadly deficient when it comes to rote learning lol

I likely won't memorize your nationality unless I repeatedly remind myself 'Dontcarett is from Malaysia Dontcarett is from Malaysia...'

I hope you typed that with your sarcasm tab.

US: "I'm sorry i cant pay my depts"
Rest of the world: "Well then. I guess i can't trade with you"
POOF the world goes to shit

You know the US relies on the rest of the world and the rest of world relies on the US, have you heard of a thing called "Financial crisis"?
That is the most truth ever, we live in a world that you can't hide from the world community. We can no longer isolate our self from it. Also by using the web we put our self out there in this world community!

Offline Semnae

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2009, 01:09:37 AM »
There is actually a 9th way, which is far more likely than #8.


The United States would absolve itself of debt.

The government can, and, if necessary, will, simply tell a certain number (which may or may not be all) of the creditors that we cannot pay back the debt and therefore will not pay back the debt.

While a suboptimal choice that should very much be avoided there's not much other countries can do about it.

After all, any country that really pushes it to the point of war will get their money back... in the form of missiles to the face.

Absolving itself of debt wouldn't work, because then nobody would buy US government treasuries ever again.

darkjedi

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2009, 02:32:19 AM »
Proin sounds very earnest. xD

Dontcarett got it right, I think.

Proin's wrong.  :P

Offline relic2279

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2009, 03:26:39 AM »
I don't think Proins opinion was at odds with Dontcarett.

So I fail to see how they're relevant.

Regardless, the USA is large enough, and has enough diversity geologically that they could become complete isolationists if needed. And survive. They would be giving up luxuries like oil, but as food and water goes, they have quite the monopoly with the great lakes and breadbasket regions. Many other countries could not sustain without imports. Japan for instance...


darkjedi

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2009, 03:38:55 AM »
I don't think Proins opinion was at odds with Dontcarett.

So I fail to see how they're relevant.

Mm, maybe it was just my perception of how Proin takes easily the likelihood of the U.S. utilizing military force to supplant creditors if the creditors insist on the U.S. paying their debt that made me say he's wrong. Such an act would have been very self-destructive, as described by Dontcarett, and humans who are as educated as most Westerners are rarely commit to suicidal acts.

So maybe the 9th option needs to be driven entirely out of the equation, because it's very unlikely...?

They would be giving up luxuries like oil

Oil is the only thing that makes luxuries possible to you.  :P

U.S. does not have enough oil. They still need a bilateral economic relationship with Canada at the very least to sustain their industry. And afaik Canada is a big creditor of the U.S. I learned it from Fallout 3!


Source:

Canada and the U.S. have also one of the world's largest investment relationships. The United States is the largest foreign investor in Canada and the most popular destination for Canadian investment. In 2006, U.S. direct investment in Canada was worth more than $241 billion USD, while Canadian direct investment in the United States was close to $197 billion USD, which makes Canada the 5th largest investor in the U.S., accounting for 8.9% of all Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in that country.

$200 billion is pretty big.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2009, 03:45:28 AM by darkjedi »

Offline relic2279

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Re: The National Debt: What it Means and How it Works
« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2009, 03:49:32 AM »
And afaik Canada is a big creditor of the U.S. I learned it from Fallout 3!

Creditor and investor are two different things :P  Canada isn't even a blip on the creditor radar:
http://www.geldpress.com/2009/02/top-15-foreign-holders-of-us-debt/