Given that the majority of the creditors of the U.S. are Americans, I think it's far more likely that the property of the U.S. will be liquidated among the Americans rather than the whole America going self-destructive due to property issues. The only thing that will be changed is basically who owns the White House, who owns the Freedom Tower, etc. It's less destabilizing than going to war with China, for example.
So I say #8 is more likely than #9. Anyway, I got you wrong. Sorry for that.