A change in the future of American politics?

[relic2279]

Some new polls came out that list the approval rating of the republican party from ages 18-29. The favorability rating of the Republican party in the age group of 18-29 is at a staggering low of 8%. The lowest it's ever been in US history. 
What I want to know is, could this be a sign of actual change in American politics?

People are most impressionable between the ages of 16-30. The beliefs they learn/acquire at this age range are the views they will hold onto most of their life. If we have a large, younger generation of adults growing up with an unfavorable view of the republicans, will that be the end of neo-conservatism?

If it is, in my opinion, that would be a good thing. Especially for real conservatives. I, myself, am for fiscal responsibility, want a non-interventionist foreign policy and am socially liberal. Usually tenants of libertarianism, or even better, the old school republicans. However, since the 80's, there has been a huge shift. From right, to ultra-extreme religious/war mongering right. AKA Neo-conservatism.
The "liberals" filled the gap, and moved to the middle. In essence, they are the conservatives your parents and grandparents voted for.

Excluding socialized health care which I am for, I wouldn't mind considering myself a conservative again. If I am lucky enough, maybe one day I can vote republican.




Polling Source:
http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/10/1
http://politifailed.blogspot.com/2009/10/party-of-fail.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/122399/Congress-Job-Approval-Ratings-Grow-Polarized.aspx

[Semnae]

I'd love to believe those figures, but there are a few problems with this poll.  First, Daily Kos has a history of political bias.  They were the one's that started the rumor that Palin was pregnant during the election campaign, which led to the disclosure that her daughter was the one that was pregnant.

Second, this poll was done by telephone, and most of that age group uses only cell phones, which can't be legally polled (FCC regulations).  This isn't a random sample, since it only includes people who use home line telephones.  This was once the best way to conduct a poll, but as cell phones dominate the phone market, polling by this method has become less accurate.

Third, 2400 total people were polled with a 2% MOE, but if you look toward the bottom, it states, "The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region."  Scientifically, anything below 1000 individuals would be crap, and the poll doesn't state how many people were polled specifically within that age group.  The fact that Daily Kos didn't give us all their numbers makes me highly suspicious.

I'd really like to see another poll back these numbers up.

[relic2279]

I'd really like to see another poll back these numbers up.

The gallup poll I listed above last has republican favorability at 13 percent versus 8. Not as quite as low, but close enough to ask, will American politics be changing?

[Semnae]

I'd really like to see another poll back these numbers up.

The gallup poll I listed above last has republican favorability at 13 percent versus 8.

I think you misread that article.  The Gallup poll you linked shows Congressional approval among Republicans to be 13%.  It's a Democratic congress, so that's not surprising.  That poll says nothing of age groups.

will American politics be changing?

I'd say it's up in the air.  There are a lot of things that could happen that we simply can't predict.  I predict that the Republican party will be forced to change to continue being competitive, but the type of change that will take place is unpredictable.  The party does not necessarily have to become less neo-conservative to rally the nations youth.

The moderates of both party's are usually only run in swing states because moderates are more competitive there.  I think it is unlikely that the Republican party will become more moderate because neo-conservatives hold most of the Republican strongholds, so as the Democrats win more seat, the Republican party becomes more neo-conservative.  It works the same way with voters.  As more moderate voters turn Democrat, the Republican voter base becomes more neo-conservative.

[relic2279]

I think you misread that article.  

Whoops you're right. That's what I get for posting drunk at 5am.

[nates1984]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/28157

[lx4]

People get more conservative with age. Most young people are either college students or work for minimum wage, no wonder they are democrats. The more taxes you pay the more attractive the right becomes. The older you get the more conservative your values become, you settle down, start a family etc.

If you did a similar poll among young people here in Sweden maybe 30 years ago I would imagine almost everyone would be left wing, many radical left. Still we have a right wing government today largely supported by those same people.

[kyanwan]

People get more conservative with age. Most young people are either college students or work for minimum wage, no wonder they are democrats. The more taxes you pay the more attractive the right becomes. The older you get the more conservative your values become, you settle down, start a family etc.

If you did a similar poll among young people here in Sweden maybe 30 years ago I would imagine almost everyone would be left wing, many radical left. Still we have a right wing government today largely supported by those same people.

Yeah.  As soon as you get a job, you become a Republican. 

The problem with us here in the USA:   We don't see further than TOMORROW.

It's a hard thought process to break.   Even I have it.   It's a pain.   Long-term planning, is lacking here.

That's why people say - for the long term, our current set of policies is very bad - it's not going to work.   

I also now see - why some people call Calvin Coolidge one of the brightest presidents we had - while others call him the father of the great depression, and one of the worst presidents we ever had.

Government, where it counts ( product safety, public infrastructure, defense, general industry oversight ) - is good - in other places ( finance, business, healthcare --- {to stabilize & force lower prices, not finance high prices.   Correct the market, it's too expensive and greedy.} ) is bad.

[relic2279]

People get more conservative with age. Most young people are either college students or work for minimum wage, no wonder they are democrats.

Yeah.  As soon as you get a job, you become a Republican. 

It's actually the opposite for me. My parents were pretty hard core republicans, and so was I until till I turned 18-20ish. Been a democrat ever since. I also work a blue collar job (commercial HVAC tech)

defense is good - in other places healthcare -- is bad.

I agree with the others, but disagree on the two above.

Defense is largely a waste of money. We're not paying for defense as much as we're paying to police the world. I'm not saying we should not have ANY defense, but we could cut our military spending by more than half and still be spending more than everyone else. Who are we defending against? No other countries pose a realistic threat to us. We only have to worry about terrorists for the most part.
And healthcare... well. Difference of opinion I suppose. I've been through the system while holding decent insurance. It's a scam. I'd take Canada's any day of the week over our system.

[kostya]

Yeah.  As soon as you get a job, you become a Republican.

It may be that I only work part of the year (summers) because I going to school, but paying taxes have affirmed my hatred of Republicans. I have yet to see a cent of Bushes tax refunds, On the other hand I have had to calculate my alternative minimum tax (and subsequently get taxed at double the rate I should be). Thank you, Republicans, for giving us a tax code that provides giant loopholes for the rich and ass rape for the poor. Maybe it is because I was born in the Former USSR, but I am outraged a lot more by the rich getting tax breaks then I do by having to give up a substantial part of my pay to taxes.

[sdedalus83]

Kostya, you're either an idiot or a troll.  AMT doesn't kick in until about $77k, no matter what kind of work you do or what your employment status is.

[kyanwan]

I agree with the others, but disagree on the two above.

Defense is largely a waste of money. We're not paying for defense as much as we're paying to police the world. I'm not saying we should not have ANY defense, but we could cut our military spending by more than half and still be spending more than everyone else. Who are we defending against? No other countries pose a realistic threat to us. We only have to worry about terrorists for the most part.
And healthcare... well. Difference of opinion I suppose. I've been through the system while holding decent insurance. It's a scam. I'd take Canada's any day of the week over our system.

Defense - is mainly securing our borders for all practical purposes.   Examples of what I see for defense:

- Nuclear Submarines:  Mainly Obsolete, mothball em.
- F22 Raptor:  Bad.  Find something cheaper.
- Expensive technology ( say, a $2000 sight for a gun, $200 flashlights, etc.... ):  Drop it
- Manpower:  GOOD
- Military people knowing how to do valuable skills:  GOOD ( such as go to college and SERVE in the military long enough to pay off all of your college bills - Not serve 2 years to get a masters degree.  That's bullshit.   I pay off my college for 10-20 years - you should SERVE 10-20 YEARS to get a free education on the taxpayer's back.  Half as an enlisted up-front, half as officer after-the-fact.)

I didn't say expensive defense spending was a good thing, but smart defense spending is.

---

Healthcare needs to be regulated - such as the following:

- Monetary penalties for chronic abuse of the hospital system - such as a fine of 10-20% of the cost of the treatment you have received.  ( such as emergency room for the sniffles, constantly ).  Penalties should be like tax debt - you must pay it, you can't run, you can't hide.
- Limits on liability / lawsuits.
- Hard limits & regulation on insurance premiums.
- Public option once the cost is driven down at least 50% or more, that is, if we need it anymore.
- Public option for chronic condition / severely ill patients ( diabetes, cancer, etc )
- Strict limits on the salary of nonprofit corporate officers & directors.   ( Yeah.  Nonprofits my ass. )   Very strict penalties for abuse of system - including loss of nonprofit status.  

Certain things are out of the hands of the private sector - or need central coordination to accomplish.   That's what the government should handle.   Steer the ship on to the right course - and let go of the wheel once it's heading in the right direction.

[vicious796]

Most kids between 18-28 get their ideas from outside sources and haven't learned to think on their own yet, believe me. Look at the surge in politics in pop culture recently, bands like Green Day (mainstream) were singing out and speaking out (sadly) about Bush. System of a Down, Rise Against, Paramore, all major bands with a big following of kids between 18-29, surprised? Musicians are becoming more politically driven and with them come the mindless.

American Universities are also NORTORIOUSLY liberal, to an extreme in some cases. Kids are confused, they want to be cool, next thing you know they're in Greenpeace hanging signs on Mount Rushmore. We've replaced alcohol with liberalism. Look at Sem (though honestly he made a couple great points in this thread alone, especially with cell phones).

The other thing to consider is that the youth in this nation doesn't vote. Like, at all. Conservatism comes with age in most situations. Of course there are exceptions to every rule but most "conservatives" are older. By the time they do get around to voting, they'll be conservative. The last 2 Democrats to win (Obama, Clinton) won in large part because they got the youth active in their campaign. Those who failed to do so lost (Gore, Kerry). Mr. Yee Haw had a chance to win against Bush if he hadn't... you know... Yee haw'd...

[fohfoh]

Vicious, I went through the same debate for the Student Union at my university. People don't vote not because they don't care, but because they don't want to support ANYTHING that is practically an embarrassment to the type of work they do. My student union is full of fucking retards who know shit all about running an organization. The people there probably care more about how great it looks on their resume to be on the SU than actually running the damn thing. Proper marketing? None. We get business students who make up stupid ass posters that "get people's attention" but for the wrong fucking reason. I notice that your name, your picture and your want of being a Op-Fi candidate. But what the fuck does it have to do with Wall-E and what the fuck are you going to do when in the Op-Fi position? Or... Ok, you want to be the representative of the X school of Business. Could you not have at least taken a picture in front of the damn school instead of the fucking cafeteria? What the fuck kind of representative doesn't even put the place they're trying to represent in the picture but another location instead? And what the fuck does a representative do? It sure as hell seems to have nothing to do with the school you want to represent if you can't even put a fucking picture of the damn school on your poster.

It's an embarrassment. I refuse to support something that embarrassing. Yes, people say, "If it sucks so much, why don't you run?"

Three reasons.

1. When retards dig holes towards landmines, you don't give them more shovels.
2. When retards dig holes towards landmines, you get the fuck away from the land mine and from afar wait for a group to replace the retards who are about to die.
3. I do not have the patience to teach 10 out of 11 stuck up shit bags who care more about their resume than representing the student body how to properly make a campaign poster. Yes, the idea is to get people's attention, BUT FOR THE RIGHT REASON. I might also want to mention the university doesn't even take the SU seriously because they're so stupid. "WE DEMAND XYZ!" (Us from outside thinking... "Do you fucking idiots even know how much that costs and the management nightmare it's going to stir up?")

The only useful thing the SU is good for is a party. And even then... their parties are somewhat poorly planned, shitty and overpriced.

[relic2279]

Click for the lulz:

http://hammerandsteele.com/?u=http://forums.bakabt.me/index.php?board=30.0

more lulz:

http://hammerandsteele.com/?u=http://www.kkk.com/

[vicious796]

But that's the point to - and beauty of - a silent ballot. You don't have to reveal who you voted for or why or if you even did it at all. Laziness trumps all as well as ignorance. Ask any random group of 18-24 year olds to name you 5 senators, the name of their State Governor, or how many reps they have in the House for their state, and I promise you at least 95% of them can't answer those questions. They don't know and - for the most part - don't care. What we have here is a minority of informed (or partially informed) youths with a mix of less youths in an anonymous internet forum discussing politics. We are a minority. I promise you my fiance can't name the Governor of our state and almost all of my friends that are my age (23) couldn't tell you that there's an election going on for Governor right now and it's very, very heated.

Kids in Student Unions and mock Governments are very special kids indeed. Most of them do it for reasons other than to help their fellow students, you're right. They know that it'll look fantastic on a resume later and they can bull shit their way through an interview about things they "organized" and did. However, the real world is cruel. Life outside of school is cut-throat because (in theory) your lifecord from your parents is cut off and you have to fend for yourself. Lies and fabricated truths can only take you so far in the real world until you get exposed and someone takes your job, family, or life. If you can go through that Student Union or Government and learn from it, not just put it on a resume and BS about it, then you're in a better spot in life.

If you can't, you just wasted time.

[nstgc]

By nature I'm the sort of person who speaks up and pisses people off, however, the current situation in the US is well beyond me. I'm definitely among those ill-informed and lazy people mentioned. I also, for that reason, don't vote.

The republican party is full of shit heads, Ron Paul aside, there is no one I would vote for (and he's in Texas). The Democrats are even worse in my minds with their love of large government. Until the way we elect our representatives changes, discussions like this are pointless. I'm not talking about the electoral collage (so long as they vote with the voters), which I agree with (its because we are a republic of states). In my state we have retards pitted against retards at all levels. For the presidential election, we had Obama and McCain, two equally bad choices (although I'm starting to wish McCain won). Are there no good people to lead are country or is there some group of puppet masters putting hundreds of billions of dollars into ensuring that no one worth voting for ever has a chance?

[edit] I should also mention that I consider myself a "true" Republican in that I believe in small government and minimal involvement in general. My actual party is closer to Libertarian.