Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four

[ilkaid]

I'm switching my vote to tightmuffin, because I suspect they are our vampire, my reasoning for this claim comes from:

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Tomoya-kun started day 2 by voting for tightmuffin, but as he is now a newborn vampire and now must vote as directed by tightmuffin, so comes up with a half-assed excuse and switches his vote to borror0, now tightmuffin in order to throw us off votes for tomoya-kun, this is a good move on his part because it means that if not enough people vote for borror0 to get lynched, and tomoya-kun gets lynched and revealed to be a newborn vampire. Tightmuffin is in the clear because mot many people would think that a vampire would vote for their only underling at this early stage in the game. But as the votes against borror0 stack up tightmuffin can switch his vote to borror0 without attracting to much attention.

Also our sheriff is a werewolf
Reasoning:

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Our werewolf targets either Chiyachan (who was in for questioning) or the sheriff, (as I see the rules) if a killer goes after the sheriffs detainee, they end up facing the sheriff
The rules for sheriff vs werewolf:

If a werewolf attacks the Sheriff, Serial Killer, Paladin or Vigilante (if they have a bullet remaining), the werewolf has a 50% chance of death. If the werewolf is killed, there is still a 50% chance their victim will turn due to the curse at the next full moon (2 game days - every other day). Day 1 is now a Full Moon night with a 75% chance to turn Victims and a 25% chance to kill.*

Since the werewolf is not dead survived the 50% chance, and the sheriff is not dead he must have been turned.

If you can see any holes in my logic please inform me

[Chiyachan]

My gunning for someone is known from the last 3 games though. It's not suspicious. I've just had to choose someone else since Havoc isn't in.

[TightMuffin]

But why would he vote for me in the first place, if he were my lackey?  Wouldn't he wait for my instructions first?

Also, while taking out one of my own in the lynch votes would indeed be a decent diversion, it wouldn't do to do it so early in the game.  I'd have waited until at least the fourth or fifth day, when the lackeys I have are more disposable.

Basically, an amateur may have acted the way you said, but not someone of such superior intellect as myself.  This is a hole in your theory.  Now I'll ask that you do not doubt the adorable Muffin-chan again.

[ilkaid]

But why would he vote for me in the first place, if he were my lackey?  Wouldn't he wait for my instructions first?

Also, while taking out one of my own in the lynch votes would indeed be a decent diversion, it wouldn't do to do it so early in the game.  I'd have waited until at least the fourth or fifth day, when the lackeys I have are more disposable.

Basically, an amateur may have acted the way you said, but not someone of such superior intellect as myself.  This is a hole in your theory.  Now I'll ask that you do not doubt the adorable Muffin-chan again.

Where does it say that the newborn vampire HAS to wait for instructions? No isntructions implies the newborn is free to do as they wish, oh and my theory has the basis that only someone clever could do it, you didn't wish to vote for your lackey and you planned to change your vote to a more suitable one later, which is exactly what you did. And being adorable does not escape you from doubts or suspicion.

[TightMuffin]

It should...

[flyawave]

well, because I have no clue who to vote for, my vote goes to borror0 because... bandwagon

[Borror0]

Not really.  Honestly, I'd have preferred not to lynch you today, but the masses seem to disagree with me.

Change your vote, then. Like all first-past-the-post voting system, the council lynching system promotes compromising. That is, if by voting for one of the two citizens with the most votes against them, you're wasting your vote and risking to die yourself. People will gather around the two biggest existing majorities, because they are scared, unless people like you pave the way. Vote for who you believe should be voted out, not for who the masses say you should. Be a leader, not a follower.


In a semi-related note, I want to propose using preferential voting (also known as instant run off) for the next town councils. Since, obviously, proportional voting wouldn't work when it comes to lynching someone, it would seem this is the second best voting system available.

[TightMuffin]

Eh, I like this voting system, I see no reason to change it.

Also, I did change my vote.  A bunch of times.  Even if I weren't voting for you you'd still have no chance of surviving unless a lot of other people did too, so I see no reason to change it again.

[Borror0]

Self-preservation mode it is, then. I vote for Arc da Rat. I'm hoping others find her a more appealing target than tomoya-kun - especially harpy and Muffin, since they voiced their suspicion for her in their previous post.

[Meomix]

In fact Borror act the most suspicious as he does not act as he used to in previous round

Fair point. I was trying to stay out of trouble. A rule in games like this is that, unless you're in trouble, it's best not to speak. Case in point: tomoya-kun probably decided to vote for me because I was the first name he saw after TightMuffin said "How cruel..."

Apparently, silence won't work this time around.

So, who's suspicious? Chiyachan. His insistence about how much I ought to die is odd, in-of-itself, but what makes him suspicious is that he was one of the two at the police office. Since there was no death, it is to assume that either him or the sheriff has been turned into a werewolf (in fact, that is very likely since day 1 has a 75% turn chance). Moreover, it's also possible that both he and the sheriff are werewolf. That is, he is the original a werewolf and he turned the sheriff as well.

I vote for Chiyachan, and I encourage others to do so.

isn't that an infringement of the game rules ?

Well it says only Newborn Vampires get disqualified for revealing their role, maybe Borror0 has stopped pretending.

What makes you think I would be so mindfuckinglystupid has to put a target on my back when I'm already in trouble? Think about it for a second.

You cite Kurses, but I shall remind you that he nearly got voted out a few times. He did work for him, but it was inarguably a case of Xanatos Roulette. I could elaborate on how that is the case, but you did it so well for me so I only need to quote you: "This is the shit that only happens in anime yet here we are [...] So you decided to use all your willpower to direct attention away from yourself, miraculously falling into another's Xanatos Roulette." Your words, not mine.

To put it bluntly, only a fool would think of using such a tactic.

To quote the brilliant Harry Potter and the Method of Rationality fanfic's Chapter 24:
"That was when Father had told Draco about the Rule of Three, which was that any plot which required more than three different things to happen would never work in real life. Father had further explained that since only a fool would attempt a plot that was as complicated as possible, the real limit was two."

Unless you believe I am absurdly stupid, there is no reason I would try to use a plan that is so contrived.

So, citizens of Baka Town, do you have any reason to believe I am absurdly stupid? Enough to attempt a Xanatos Roulette, really?

Don't put words in my mouth  "This is the shit that only happens in anime" was directed at Airhawk for creating a nigh inescapable logic trap

What makes you think I would be so mindfuckinglystupid has to put a target on my back when I'm already in trouble? Think about it for a second.

Maybe because it is so mindfuckinglystupid to begin with? Why would someone risk certain death by putting a neon sign on his head? It sure as hell worked for Kurses and 1000mAh in the past. No one else but you put that target on your back buddy, unless you are trying to hold onto the excuse that fairies possessed the forum.

[TightMuffin]

Well, as I said before, even if he's the werewolf, he's not much of a danger to anyone until tomorrow.  Don't you think it would make sense to get rid of a more pressing target first?

[Borror0]

It sure as hell worked for Kurses and 1000mAh in the past.

Ya. It totally led them to an easy victo... oh, wait, no it didn't! They lost.

No one else but you put that target on your back buddy, unless you are trying to hold onto the excuse that fairies possessed the forum.

No, but I am claiming that someone with the moderation rights changed my signature.

[TightMuffin]

Could any mod do this?  Assuming you're telling the truth, the only person in this game with moderation rights as far as I know is Arc, but I don't know how SMF works with those kinds of things, I always thought only administrators or super mods could change people's sigs.  Also, that seems like it'd be going a bit far...  I don't think Arc really seems the sort to do such a thing, judging from what little I've seen of her.

[Havoc10K]

there are hackers too, but dunno what that would give anyone

[harpy]

Now Arc is becoming even more suspicious, but then again this might just be Borrors plan....

and I think mods can change signs, there have been few times when they have removed signs if it is to be or have wrong content

[TightMuffin]

Hm...  Well honestly I don't see why people are suspecting Bore in the first place.  I still think Arc is far more suspicious than anyone else.  By not voting her out  right now, you could be making a big mistake.  (And I'm certainly not trying to protect Bore, my initial vote was for him after all.)

[Chiyachan]

Arc is only a mod on the Hentai board. Can't do anything here.
So you'd be looking at full staff members, and what do they have to gain by doing it? =\
We -KNOW- Borror0 is a bad person, why risk lynching an innocent when we can rid ourselves of bad ones?

[TightMuffin]

Well yeah, but if Bore made a post over there, then theoretically she'd have been able to do it.  Or at least, I assume so.  I don't really know that much about such things.

Also, we don't know Bore is a bad person.  I'm much more confident that Arc is the serial killer than that Bore is the werewolf.

[Havoc10K]

Arc and Enzedder don't have access to accounts, at least not on editing level.

[TightMuffin]

Ah, alright.  Yeah, as I said before, it doesn't seem the kind of thing she'd do in the first place.  Was just mentioning the possibility is all.

Well, then I guess Bore is lying.  But that doesn't really necessarily mean much.  I think it's just as likely that that was his idea of a joke that backfired, rather than being an immensely ill-thought out plan.