I was only silent because I had loads of things to do this week if you look at my post history you'll see that I haven't made a post for 2 days. I have been reading the thread though.
So my view is:
And where is Soulreaper77 i haven't seen her since this day started.
I'm not a female
I'm a powerful testosterone filled muscle tank!
I vote on tight muffin, as he had 2 votes in the last round.
This vote has been invalidated
How cruel... :'(
I retract my vote and recast my vote to Borror0
Tightmuffin's avatar made me feel terrible about myself, and Borror0 has no avatar so i don't feel guilty.
From this I conclude that
tomoya is an Newborn. He changed his vote to
borror for NO reason at all.
Borror was barely mentioned before he made his vote, he only had 1 vote in the first voting round.
Tomoya is also a new player and from what I make up of it he doesn't know how to play this game well, or hasn't remembered all the rules yet. And from that mistakes easily spawn. If he hadn't used strike-outs to invalidate his first vote it would have been so much more believable, his first vote was simply based on the fact that he wanted to even out the votes. Also his vote was made after the events of day 2 were posted and again there was no reason to change votes nor to deem them invalidated, and if you look at the times you'll see that his vote was 19 minutes after day 2. He had enough time to read, assess the situation and vote but he didn't. He just voted for the reason that he wanted to even out the votes. Then after changing his vote he realized that he was turned into a Newborn and had to vote on the target the Vampire specified so to fix his mistake he deemed his vote invalidated and had to vote again. After that we get an explanation that he felt bad to kill
Tightmuffin because of his avatar, which isn't the way to play after day 2.
This assessment leads to the suspicion that
Tightmuffin is the Vampire or that a person who is on close terms with him is the Vampire,
vuzedome rises to my mind (although I don't know if they really are on close terms). I suspect that the current Vampire is either trying to keep
Tightmuffin in the game or he is
Tightmuffin himself, this part is pure speculation though.
Also
Tightmuffin pming me to vote on
Arc Da Rat is not in the spirit of the game. If you want to convince me do it here and don't pm me for that.
And then this:
I vote for tomoya-kun.
Good man. I will also vote for Borror0, this time around.
I encourage you to change your vote to tomoya-kun. I didn't try to vote you out. He, however, did.
Well, I can't argue with that logic. Alright, vote changed to tomoya-kun, then. I still consider him to be pretty suspicious...
Logic?? What logic? This is more of a "You vote on me, I vote on you" kind of thing. No logic to be seen here. You tried to pass it off as logic but in reality you are voting on your own Newborn to divert any suspicion from you being the Vampire. And to add to your suspicion
tomoya has voted on
Arc Da Rat, who you have been trying to kill for almost the entirety of the game now.
I think TightMuffin was correct before. We should worry about werewolf tomorrow. Today we have to worry about other killers. Going to vote for Borror tomorrow, that is if I survive this night.
I also do not believed Arc is a killer, but I think tomoya-kun is really suspicious...
On the the case of
harpy. I think
harpy is the Sheriff. Normally I wouldn't talk about protectors because they're good and all and shouldn't be killed but this is different. We all know that on Day 1 the Sheriff's office was attacked by the werewolf, he failed to kill him/her and thus the Sheriff is
turned.
Why
harpy? Because
Chiyachan was taken into custody. In round 3
tiffanys discussed that both
Chiyachan and harpy are dangerous players. She had pretty solid reasons, being that both harpy and
Chiyachan made it far in the previous rounds of this game. This lead harpy to the choice that
Chiyachan was suspicious and thus he was taken into custody. Also why was
harpy attacked? That must be the choice of a someone who played the previous rounds and deemed that she was dangerous and because of the heightened chances of the werewolf on Day 1 he thought he could succeed in turning her and making her part of his team so that she wouldn't attack him or pose a threat to him.
Also another reason why I believe
harpy is the sheriff:
I will vote for maddoctor. The name just sounds like he likes to go around and cut people up....
Ok, she votes on a random person. All is fine.
As there's no Havoc to choose, I'll have to vote for harpy. They're evil creatures. >_>
ah, now I think I will change my vote to Chiyachan
he always has this negative and hateful feel about him...
Chiyachan - well I did not had a real reason to vote for maddoctor, but I have reason to vote for you. I am all about reason
* me joins Arc Da Rat, but drinks a gin-lime cocktail one can never go wrong with that*
I decided to vote for maddoctor after all
* me drinks another gin-lime cocktail and feels bad about changing her mind all the time*
Ok, what just happened here?!? She voted on
Chiyachan because she thinks he's evil then she explicitly says that she has a reason to vote on
Chiyachan, then suddenly she changes her vote to
maddoctor for what reason?? Doesn't seem "all about reason" to me. If we look at the aftermath of Day 2 we see that
maddoctor had enough votes to be killed either way, with or without
harpy's vote. So I don't know why she would change her vote from a person she had all the reason to vote on to a random person she had no reason to vote on.
And then
Chiyachan gets taken into custody but he barely talked nor did he raise any suspicion in my eyes. So it seems that she changed her vote to take
Chiyachan into custody on a werewolf safe day, note that
Chiyachan was the werewolf in the last round.
Arc da Rat doesn't seem too suspicious to me. Mainly because she only has said random things as far as I can see.
BUT this raises my suspicion a lot:
(which you've actually done in every single game thus far and were innocent in every single one of those)
I'm figuring that everyone is missing this part of Tiffanys post ... The last 2 games I have played I didn't vote on the 1st day & was one of the innocent. It would be a very slim chance for me to be one of the killers ... much less being the Serial Killer base on theses facts.
We all know that whatever you were in the last round(s) has 0 to do with what you are now. For you to bring that up as a reason for your innocence is not so thought through. This could be because you're actually the serial killer and don't know how to handle the pressure very well or how to hide the fact and push the suspicion on other people.
It would be a very slim chance for me to be one of the killers
For everyone's information chances are
NOT slim that a person is a killer. We started with 17 players, 3 got killed so that leaves us with 14. Maddoctor revealed he was an innocent and Chiyachan is also an innocent since killing happened and werewolf attacked while he was detained, 1000mAh is also an innocent because he got killed. This leaves us with 11 people and 8 roles to divide. Assuming that harpy is the Sheriff we only have 10 people left and 3 killer roles, 1 semi-killer and 2 protector roles and 1 neutral role (Vigilante).
Now the chance that 1 random person of those 14 people might be an killer/semi-killer is 50%.
I'm not much of a statistics person, it has been several years already so it may be wrong, I used 4 nCr 1 * 10 nCr 5 / 14 nCr 9 = 0.503 aka 50.3%
I also used several other possibilities like 4 nCr 1 * 10 nCr 8 / 14 nCr 9 = 0.089 = 8.9% or 10 nCr 4 / 14 nCr 8 = 0.069 = 6.9% or 14 nCr 4 / 14 nCr 9 = 0.5 = 50%
While these last answers seem more realistic to me the form they're written in does not. If I had to chose a second best answer it would be the 8.9% one. Please enlighten me on this if you know anything about it :3
I will withhold my vote until I hear what you guys have to say on this.
