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Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four
Chiyachan:
And the chance of me randomly being selected as a werewolf two games in a row is...? =\
Borror0:
--- Quote from: Chiyachan on September 30, 2010, 07:36:26 PM ---And the chance of me randomly being selected as a werewolf two games in a row is...? =\
--- End quote ---
It's completely irrelevant, as the two events are independent.
Let me explain via coin flips:
If you flip a coin and it falls on tails, what's the chance that the next coin flip be tails again? It's 50%. There's a 50% chance it'll be tail and a 50% chance it'll be head. Now, if you have not flipped a coin yet, and you ask what's the probability of flipping two tails in a row, then the answer would be 25%: 25% to have two tails, 25% to have two heads, 25% to have head then tail, and 25% to have tails and then heads.
When this game started, you had the same chance as any of us to be a werewolf.
flyawave:
@ Soulreaper77
your logic for suspecting Harpy seems reasonable... If that is the case, then we can put off lynching her for a while as the next moon not the next day
Chiyachan:
What's the chance of winning the lottery two weeks running?
It's not the same as winning it for only one week, is it?
Same applies here.
If you'd care to re-read my question you'd see I wasn't asking what the chances of me getting werewolf this time were, I was asking what the chances of getting werewolf in two games in a row were.
You'll find it's a lot lower than just being selected for one game.
But anyway.... Vote borror0 and his evil red eyes. :( His bite is worse than his howl.
Soulreaper77:
--- Quote from: TightMuffin on September 30, 2010, 07:17:43 PM ---I don't think PMing people is against the spirit of the game at all, and I asked Tiff about something similar earlier and she didn't seem to mind. Of course, nothing I can do to stop people from repeating the PMs here, but that's a different story. Of course, if it does bother you, there's no reason I can't refrain from PMing you in the future, but I think there's no reason two people can't have a private discussion within the bounds of the game as well.
--- End quote ---
It's not in the spirit of the game because this can lead to cheating. For example if the Sheriff and the Serial killer work together they can pretty much cheat their way to Day X by having the Sheriff not detaining the Serial Killer and the Serial Killer not attacking any detainees. Also they could eliminate at least 2 special roles out of the mix and that will make it easier for them to predict who is who.
I wouldn't be bothered if it was only about that I didn't vote yet but telling me who to vote on over pms is something I think nobody should do unless it's their role of course. Because a big part of this game is analyzing comments.
--- Quote from: Borror0 on September 30, 2010, 07:25:06 PM ---Chiyachan could be the werewolf or a vampire. It's not clearl if he's an innnocent or not.
In fact, he's more likely to be the werewolf than anyone else because the werewolf has to attack the sheriff if he's taken in custody (it might be the same for the vampire, though I can't be sure because the sheriff/vampire interaction isn't detailed in the OP).
--- End quote ---
The reason why I believe Chiyachan could not be the werewolf is because:
--- Quote from: Day 2, scene 2 ---Now, like always, the Sheriff did choose to remain anonymous but they did make a statement that there was indeed multiple attacks here last night. It is unclear at this time whether their targets were the Sheriff or the suspect in for questioning, Chiyachan, but it would seem that everyone managed to make it out of this extremely stressful ordeal unharmed
--- End quote ---
Which to me implies that attacks came from the outside. It would be weird that if he detained the werewolf and he turned and he attacked him that the Sheriff wouldn't know that he had been attacked. With the demon I can imagine he wouldn't know but if you're attacked by a werewolf you wouldn't forget that ordeal just like that. But it isn't specified in the rules that the Sheriff will tell if the attack was from the inside or outside. If he would tell that then in the case of the attack coming from the inside the werewolf would be known to all.
I would like Tiffanys to clear this up. Will the Sheriff know if he got attacked by his detainee when it's not the demon and will he make it public?
EDIT: It just struck me that it says their ... Which means there were 2+ attackers. Demon killed someone, Serial Killer killed someone, Werewolf failed, Vampire turned tomoya (??). This has raised some doubts in my reasoning from before.
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