Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four

[Chiyachan]

And the chance of me randomly being selected as a werewolf two games in a row is...? =\

[Borror0]

And the chance of me randomly being selected as a werewolf two games in a row is...? =\

It's completely irrelevant, as the two events are independent.

Let me explain via coin flips:
If you flip a coin and it falls on tails, what's the chance that the next coin flip be tails again? It's 50%. There's a 50% chance it'll be tail and a 50% chance it'll be head. Now, if you have not flipped a coin yet, and you ask what's the probability of flipping two tails in a row, then the answer would be 25%: 25% to have two tails, 25% to have two heads, 25% to have head then tail, and 25% to have tails and then heads.

When this game started, you had the same chance as any of us to be a werewolf.

[flyawave]

@ Soulreaper77
your logic for suspecting Harpy seems reasonable... If that is the case, then we can put off lynching her for a while as the next moon not the next day

[Chiyachan]

What's the chance of winning the lottery two weeks running?
It's not the same as winning it for only one week, is it?
Same applies here.
If you'd care to re-read my question you'd see I wasn't asking what the chances of me getting werewolf this time were, I was asking what the chances of getting werewolf in two games in a row were.
You'll find it's a lot lower than just being selected for one game.

But anyway.... Vote borror0 and his evil red eyes. His bite is worse than his howl.

[Soulreaper77]

I don't think PMing people is against the spirit of the game at all, and I asked Tiff about something similar earlier and she didn't seem to mind.  Of course, nothing I can do to stop people from repeating the PMs here, but that's a different story.  Of course, if it does bother you, there's no reason I can't refrain from PMing you in the future, but I think there's no reason two people can't have a private discussion within the bounds of the game as well.

It's not in the spirit of the game because this can lead to cheating. For example if the Sheriff and the Serial killer work together they can pretty much cheat their way to Day X by having the Sheriff not detaining the Serial Killer and the Serial Killer not attacking any detainees. Also they could eliminate at least 2 special roles out of the mix and that will make it easier for them to predict who is who. 
I wouldn't be bothered if it was only about that I didn't vote yet but telling me who to vote on over pms is something I think nobody should do unless it's their role of course. Because a big part of this game is analyzing comments.

Chiyachan could be the werewolf or a vampire. It's not clearl if he's an innnocent or not.

In fact, he's more likely to be the werewolf than anyone else because the werewolf has to attack the sheriff if he's taken in custody (it might be the same for the vampire, though I can't be sure because the sheriff/vampire interaction isn't detailed in the OP).

The reason why I believe Chiyachan could not be the werewolf is because:

Now, like always, the Sheriff did choose to remain anonymous but they did make a statement that there was indeed multiple attacks here last night. It is unclear at this time whether their targets were the Sheriff or the suspect in for questioning, Chiyachan, but it would seem that everyone managed to make it out of this extremely stressful ordeal unharmed

Which to me implies that attacks came from the outside. It would be weird that if he detained the werewolf and he turned and he attacked him that the Sheriff wouldn't know that he had been attacked. With the demon I can imagine he wouldn't know but if you're attacked by a werewolf you wouldn't forget that ordeal just like that. But it isn't specified in the rules that the Sheriff will tell if the attack was from the inside or outside. If he would tell that then in the case of the attack coming from the inside the werewolf would be known to all.
I would like Tiffanys to clear this up. Will the Sheriff know if he got attacked by his detainee when it's not the demon and will he make it public?

EDIT: It just struck me that it says their ... Which means there were 2+ attackers. Demon killed someone, Serial Killer killed someone, Werewolf failed, Vampire turned tomoya (??). This has raised some doubts in my reasoning from before.

[Tiffanys]

Voting is now closed. Today's votes will not be counted, more will be explained in the news.

Will the Sheriff know if he got attacked by his detainee when it's not the demon and will he make it public?

I've mentioned this before. The Sheriff could say what happened if they really wanted to, but if the Sheriff did indeed survive a Werewolf attack then that means that they are also now a Werewolf. Now, it would not be in the Sheriff's best interests to report having become a Werewolf, now would it? More than that, if the attacker was the detainee, then it would be imprudent to get one of your teammates (a fellow Werewolf) killed. That just reduces the chances of a victory for the Sheriff, as per that particular scenario.

The attack could have come from outside as well, and it could have been a Vampire. If a Werewolf (on moon night) or Vampire were detained, however, then they would attempt to turn the Sheriff. The Vampire has nothing to lose, and the Werewolf can't help it. Kinda hard to miss someone ripping out of their clothes and becoming a Werewolf right in front of you.

Day 3 will be incoming, but it'll take me several hours.

[OniSamurai]

What's the chance of winning the lottery two weeks running?
It's not the same as winning it for only one week, is it?
Same applies here.

The odds of winning the lottery 2 weeks in a row IS astronomically higher if looked at as a whole. But the point is that if you win one week, you still have the same odds of winning it again even if you did or didn't win it the previous week.

[Chiyachan]

I am looking at it as a whole. In this instance anyway.

[OniSamurai]

I am looking at it as a whole. In this instance anyway.

Understood.

[Chiyachan]

I'm not saying it's not impossible for me to be a wolfy, but overall, it's not that likely I am. I might be without knowing it. =(

[Soulreaper77]

Voting is now closed. Today's votes will not be counted, more will be explained in the news.

Will the Sheriff know if he got attacked by his detainee when it's not the demon and will he make it public?

I've mentioned this before. The Sheriff could say what happened if they really wanted to, but if the Sheriff did indeed survive a Werewolf attack then that means that they are also now a Werewolf. Now, it would not be in the Sheriff's best interests to report having become a Werewolf, now would it? More than that, if the attacker was the detainee, then it would be imprudent to get one of your teammates (a fellow Werewolf) killed. That just reduces the chances of a victory for the Sheriff, as per that particular scenario.

The attack could have come from outside as well, and it could have been a Vampire. If a Werewolf (on moon night) or Vampire were detained, however, then they would attempt to turn the Sheriff. The Vampire has nothing to lose, and the Werewolf can't help it. Kinda hard to miss someone ripping out of their clothes and becoming a Werewolf right in front of you.

Day 3 will be incoming, but it'll take me several hours.

Ok thanks :3


Hmm now things get a little more difficult. Let's say both the Vampire + Werewolf attacked the Sheriff. Werewolf failed so Sheriff has to be turned but the Vampire turns at a 100% rate so that must mean that when the werewolf came first the Vampire would lose its turn and if the Vampire came first the Sheriff would a Newborn and Newborns can't be turned so that must mean that the Werewolf lost its turn.
Or else I totally misinterpreted the word "their" and only the Werewolf attacked... Confused now :S

[Borror0]

I am looking at it as a whole. In this instance anyway.

We know you are. We're telling you it does not make sense to do so. To claim otherwise is to claim that previous coin flips have an effect on subsequent coin tosses, which just does not make sense. When this game started, you had a one in seventeen chance to be a werewolf. Period.

[Soulreaper77]

I am looking at it as a whole. In this instance anyway.

We know you are. We're telling you it does not make sense to do so. To claim otherwise is to claim that previous coin flips have an effect on subsequent coin tosses, which just does not make sense. When this game started, you had a one in seventeen chance to be a werewolf. Period.

No he didn't. There are 9 roles and each role except Innocent is only handed out once. So it would be more like:
1st person: 1/9
2nd person: 1/8
3rd person: 1/7
...
9th person: 1/1
10th - Xth: Innocent

So the chance increases for persons lower down the list to be a special role, till person 9 that is.

[Borror0]

So the chance increases for persons lower down the list to be a special role, till person 9 that is.

It's always a chance in seventeen. Let's say werewolf is the third role attributed: 16/17*15/16*1/15 = (16*15*1)/(17*16*15) = 1/17

[OniSamurai]

EDIT: Nevermind

[Borror0]

EDIT: Nevermind too. Please delete this post.

[tomoya-kun]

What's going on?

[Chiyachan]

Complicated mathematics. I got no idea anymore.
How about voting for the dead guy and Borror for making everyones head hurt?

[Soulreaper77]

So the chance increases for persons lower down the list to be a special role, till person 9 that is.

It's always a chance in seventeen. Let's say werewolf is the third role attributed: 16/17*15/16*1/15 = (16*15*1)/(17*16*15) = 1/17

Compare it with choosing the people with rolling a 17-sided die, what is the chance that I roll on for example Chiyachan, 1/17 you would say and that's good. But now I only have Chiyachan as a person, now I need to roll another die, a 9-sided one to assign him his *special* role, the chance to get 1 out of the 9 *special* roles is 1/9.
Then 1/17 (person roll) * 1/9 (role roll) = chance a random person gets a random *special* role. The randomness sits in the 17-sided die. As it will randomly select a person to receive a special role.
Then my second throw would be a roll with a 16-sided die and a 8-sided die, whose total chance is higher than my first roll.
So to sum it up:
1st person to be given a special role: 1/17*1/9 
2nd person to be given a special role: 1/16*1/8
....
Last person to be given a special role: 1/8*1/1


Meh .... I wanna see Day 3 now. I'm actually waiting for it to get posted so I can go to bed xD

[tomoya-kun]

On the topic of werewolf, when can they attack?