Author Topic: Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four  (Read 38912 times)

Offline Borror0

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Re: Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four
« Reply #300 on: September 30, 2010, 10:42:38 PM »
So to sum it up:
1st person to be given a special role: 1/17*1/9 
2nd person to be given a special role: 1/16*1/8
....
Last person to be given a special role: 1/8*1/1

First, there are only special eight roles attributed at game start, not nine:
1. Werewolf
2. Serial killer
3. Demon
4. Sheriff
5. Paladin
6 Vigilante
7. Doctor
8. Vampire

Now that's cleared out, I can explain the problem with that methodology is that it does not even give a 100% chance (ie 17/17):

  1/17*1/8
+1/16*1/7
+1/15*1/6
+1/14*1/5
+1/13*1/4
+1/12*1/3
+1/11*1/2
+1/10*1/1
      0.2341

At that point, you have only 23.4% of all outcomes accounted for yet over 50% of the players have had their roles attributed to them. I'm not even sure how you'd calculate the probability of someone being an innocent (9/10, maybe? But then you'd be over 100%!) When you add all possible outcomes, and you don't come up with exactly 100% it means that you've done something as not all outcomes are accounted for.


Here's two mistakes you've committed:

1. You ignored previous events. For someone to make it to 1d15, he had to not be rolled on the two previous rolls (probability of 16/17 and 15/16). If you ignore that, you are not measuring the chance of someone being of a certain role. You're measuring the chance of someone having a special role on that particular die role. That's not what you're interested in.

2. You're measuring the chance of someone to land a particular role at a specific point in time, when it's not a relevant metric. The smaller die roll measure is used to determine which role someone gets, but you don't care about that. You only care about the likelihood of someone being any special role.

On the topic of werewolf, when can they attack?

On Day 1, and then every two nights (Day 3, Day 5, etc.).
« Last Edit: September 30, 2010, 11:54:55 PM by Borror0 »

Offline Meomix

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Re: Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four
« Reply #301 on: September 30, 2010, 11:52:04 PM »
If he hadn't used strike-outs to invalidate his first vote it would have been so much more believable, his first vote was simply based on the fact that he wanted to even out the votes. Also his vote was made after the events of day 2 were posted and again there was no reason to change votes nor to deem them invalidated, and if you look at the times you'll see that his vote was 19 minutes after day 2. He had enough time to read, assess the situation and vote but he didn't. He just voted for the reason that he wanted to even out the votes. Then after changing his vote he realized that he was turned into a Newborn and had to vote on the target the Vampire specified so to fix his mistake he deemed his vote invalidated and had to vote again. After that we get an explanation that he felt bad to kill

Wo wo hold it. How do you know it was exactly 19 minutes? There are people that pop in, take afew seconds then vote on the first person they see. Only people who had special roles would know the time of revelation, care to explain this Soulreaper77?
Did you know Satan was supposedly gods RIGHT HAND MAN, not his left. Blows your theory out of the water now doesn't it.

Offline Soulreaper77

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Re: Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four
« Reply #302 on: September 30, 2010, 11:52:42 PM »
So to sum it up:
1st person to be given a special role: 1/17*1/9 
2nd person to be given a special role: 1/16*1/8
....
Last person to be given a special role: 1/8*1/1

First, there are only special eight roles attributed at game start, not nine:
1. Werewolf
2. Serial killer
3. Demon
4. Sheriff
5. Paladin
6 Vigilante
7. Doctor
8. Vampire

Now that's cleared out, I can explain the problem with that methodology is that it does not even give a 100% chance (ie 17/17):

  1/17*1/8
+1/16*1/7
+1/15*1/6
+1/14*1/5
+1/13*1/4
+1/12*1/3
+1/11*1/2
+1/10*1/1
      0.2341



At that point, you have only 23.4% of all outcomes accounted for yet over 50% of the players have had their roles attributed to them. I'm not even sure how you'd calculate the probability of someone being an innocent (9/10, maybe? But then you'd be over 100%!) When you add all possible outcomes, and you don't come up with exactly 100% it means that you've done something as not all outcomes are accounted for.


You forgot the Nurse but that doesn't matter.

That what I did didn't account for the innocents only the special roles. So if the chance that a random player will get a special role is 23.4% then the chance that a random player will get an Innocent role is 76.6%.

Here's two mistakes you've committed:

1. You ignored previous events. For someone to make it to 1d15, he had to not be rolled on the two previous rolls (probability of 16/17 and 15/16). If you ignore that, you are not measuring the chance of someone being of a certain role. You're measuring the chance of someone having a special role on that particular die role. That's not what you're interested in.

2. You're measuring the chance of someone to land a particular role at a specific point in time, when it's not a relevant metric. The smaller die roll measure is used to determine which role someone gets, but you don't care about that. You only care about the likelihood of someone being any special role.

How did I ignore previous events? I can't roll the same person twice, I cross them out hence the 1/17, 1/16, etc. What you are doing is calculating the chance that I pick a person on my Xth turn and assuming I can roll them multiple times. Or in die-terms, you're calculating the chance that I throw a number X and X-1 in a row and then throw a Y. But we want to know the chance that we get a role with Z amount of people. Hence the second die.
And in this particular problem only the first 9 people matter since the rest will be an Innocent anyways.

Example time ^^:
If I have a deck of cards the chance that I will draw an Ace on my first hit = 1/52. But that's only an Ace, I want to draw an Ace of Diamonds on my first hit = 1/52 (52 cards)*1/4 (4 suits). Now I want another Ace but this time I want it to be an Ace of Spades = 1/51*1/3. Now what is the chance that I draw those in a row? 1/52*1/4*1/51*1/3 = 1/31824 Now what would be the chance that I draw any other card combination on my next turn? 1 - 1/31824 = 31823/31824.
Now back to the game. Let's say we have only 3 roles, Werewolf and Demon and Innocent.  Chance that I draw a person is 1/X. Chance that I draw a person with the werewolf attribute is 1/X*1/3. Now I draw another person, the chance that he has the Demon attribute would be 1/(X-1)*1/2. Chance that I draw and a Werewolf and Demon in succession = 1/X*1/3*1/(X-1)*1/2 = 1/(6(X^2-X)) What is the chance I draw an Innocent next? 1 - 1/(6(X^2-X)) =
(6(X^2-X)-1)/(6(X^2-X)) and adding the chance that I draw the Werewolf + Demon on turn 1 and 2 + the Innocent on turn 3 will always result in a total chance of 1.
I only expanded those first turns to 9 and left out the Innocent chance.

Let me hear if you have any objections since I'll be needing these chance calculating skills very soon and this is helping me a lot :3



If he hadn't used strike-outs to invalidate his first vote it would have been so much more believable, his first vote was simply based on the fact that he wanted to even out the votes. Also his vote was made after the events of day 2 were posted and again there was no reason to change votes nor to deem them invalidated, and if you look at the times you'll see that his vote was 19 minutes after day 2. He had enough time to read, assess the situation and vote but he didn't. He just voted for the reason that he wanted to even out the votes. Then after changing his vote he realized that he was turned into a Newborn and had to vote on the target the Vampire specified so to fix his mistake he deemed his vote invalidated and had to vote again. After that we get an explanation that he felt bad to kill

Wo wo hold it. How do you know it was exactly 19 minutes? There are people that pop in, take afew seconds then vote on the first person they see. Only people who had special roles would know the time of revelation, care to explain this Soulreaper77?

Because:

                                                               Look here ^
Day 2

Scene 1

Good morning BakaTown, we have some breaking news for you this morning. It seems a lot was going on at the police station last night. For that, we're going to go to our reporter in the field, Sally McFields.

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[/spoiler]

and

I vote on tight muffin, as he had 2 votes in the last round.

This vote has been invalidated

« Last Edit: 29 September 2010, 05:32:03 by tomoya-kun »

It's actually more than 19 minutes. I accidentally took the post time and not the edit time.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2010, 12:02:24 AM by Soulreaper77 »

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Day 3

Scene 1

Good eve, subjects. Your Queen has arrived.
I trust little Mimina has treated you well. How cute she is.
Ah, well... It would appear there have become affairs which will have been dealt with soon enough.
Magics forbidden at the turn of the 13th century. Though, it would seem they had not been forbidden quite well enough.
Oh, it's a real bother... But, what's a Queen to do?
Oh! I know. How about we just kill them? That seemed to work pretty well in the past. Or did it..? Hmm... there does seem to be that little issue with it cropping up again.
Well, I suppose it can't be helped.
The Werewolf Chiyachan. Be taking that one, we will. Perhaps a public execution is in order? Those are always fun.
Doesn't everyone just love a little death in the morning? I know I do.
You humans are so drab... Lynchings? Uck! You'll have to get -5 style points for that one, little boys and girls. Where's the style? ugh... The world's not what it was 4 centuries ago.
Oh, it was nice... mass impaling... public torture, stretchings, crucifixions, iron maidens, witch burning... Ohh, witch burning... I think I like that one!
So, Ophelia dear, get on with it, would you?
Oh, and Mimi, sweetie... come play with mommy.


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Offline scotsman

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So now 3 vampires, 1 werewolf?, a serial killer and a demon. I would say poor Muffin and apologize for suspecting you but you probably deserved it....

Offline Borror0

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Ah! I told you I was innocent! You mocked me and nearly lynched me. However, the truth has now surfaced and I am at last vindicated.

PS: Soulreaper77, I sent you an email to not derail this thread any further.

Offline tomoya-kun

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So who is the serial killer?


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So who is the serial killer?

I dunnoooooo... Who would kill 1000mAh and the adorable TightMuffin?

Offline scotsman

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I think someone is either setting Arc up or Arc is a really bad killer and only kills those voting for her.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2010, 02:31:37 AM by scotsman »

Offline Borror0

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I think someone is either setting Arc up or Arc is a really bad killer and only kills those voting for him.

If so, I'm probably next.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2010, 02:32:01 AM by Borror0 »

Offline vuzedome

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Damn it, I knew Chiyachan was up to no good, was hoping that someone would vote him up for lynching and I would have followed with a vote as well.

Alright, now, who we vote for next?

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Offline TightMuffin

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Well, I kind of figured that would happen...  Is most of the reason I'd started campaigning so hard to get Arc out.  (Even if Arc wasn't the killer, the real one probably wouldn't bother with that trick if they knew she'd be lynched anyway.)

Ah well, good luck, my friends.  Avenge me somehow!

Offline harpy

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Hm, I was planning to vote for Borror today (if he was still around), but I guess I have no reason to as all that sign changing ordeal was not his plan or anything...
My next choice was Chiyachan, but that's not possible as well...

*harpy drinks stronger gin-lime cocktail and feels totally lost and thinks real hard to find someone to vote for while trying to figure out all these statistics that makes no sense to harpy*..*harpy sips more of her drink and comes to conclusion that she still hates math*


...Men are so necessarily mad that it would be another twist of madness not to be mad...

Offline suhaib

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I gotta admit that i didn't see that one coming ...

I will take some time to think who's my vote
will go to !

Quote
there was quite a lot of activity going on at the ilkaid house.

i wonder what that is ...

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Offline Meomix

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This.. This cant be happening!! Zen zen da'me da, Zen zen da'me da kor'ie.



*Watches on in astonishment as Chiyachan gets shot with multiple bullets*



BORROR0 THIS SHALL BE YOUR DEMISE! YOU THINK I'M GOING TO LET YOU SLIDDER OUT OF THIS! *Slam*

Since Chiyachan attacked me first, Vampire Borror0 came after me later, meaning there were no Newborns on Day 2.

I declare this moment on BBT news that i am the SHERIFF! Tiffany Awesome shall confirm it!


I will now reveal what really happened the day after yesterday.

Night 1:



Last night while you were questioning Chiyachan you went and opened the window. While you were looking outside asking some obscure question you heard clothes ripping.

As you turn around you hear glass shatter and out of the interrogation room a Werewolf comes flying from the shattering glass and pounces on you.

You grab your gun and get a shot off and nick his leg. That must have made him fear for his life because just after the shot was fired he jumped off of you and dove out the outside window. You were going to chase after him, but you realized you couldn't move and suddenly the pain registered with your brain and it was intense. All you could see was blood all around you and you quickly lost consciousness as you went into shock.

When you came to, you saw Borror0 standing over you with blood running down his chin and a very displeased look on his face. You grabbed your gun and shouted "What are you doing here?! Don't move!" Just then, you saw him grin and noticed the long extended fangs in his pearly white smile with blood still running from his mouth.

You panic and start firing but he just moves around like a blur so fast that you can't even aim at him. Then, all the sudden he just bursts into a cloud of black smoke and disappears out the window.



You sit up wondering what the hell just happened... But looking down at your body... you realize the pain is nearly gone and your clothes are ripped to shreds but you aren't badly hurt, certainly not bad enough to immobilize you and make you go unconscious.

As you look up at the moon you feel the blood inside your body burning and in that instant you understand what had just happened. Chiyachan must have been a werewolf, turned, attacked you... and now you were going through the change and would turn into the beast at the next full moon yourself.

But what about Borror0? Why was he there? Was he really there? Was he a vampire..? So many questions, and so few answers. But, it's pretty clear you can't tell anyone about any of this or you'd risk your own safety.




Here are the official documents in case you think i'm making this all up

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May i remind everybody that a Vampire can only be killed by lynching.

This player can only be killed by lynching. Immune to all other killers including Vigilante.

Can be stopped by Paladin, but not killed. The Paladin however is subsequently turned. Their protected target will remain unaffected.

This Vampire has been sent from the Unholy Legion of Area 7, under orders of the sovereign Queen Ophelia. Its mission: Infiltration, subversion, and attrition.

The orders...
1. Give the human cattle their unholy rebirth into darkness.
2. Command your newborn army and eliminate all hostile threats from within.
3. Take control of Baka Town in the name of the Vampire Queen.

This player is a killer subverter. It is a largely passive role, it cannot kill anyone. However, they are neither on the side of the Killers nor the Innocents. The Vampire player will turn Innocents and Protectors into Newborn Vampires. If the Vampire encounters a Killer, the Killer will lose their turn and neither will die. The killer will know their identity and the Vampire will know their role. Of course, the Killers can't just go out and say "So yeah, I was killing someone last night and..."

Whether the Vampire Victory is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen. Only the Vampire Overlords can decide that.

Vampire is able to target 1 person a night, every night.

If the Vampire player is killed a Newborn Vampire will be chosen by the Queen to drink the Ancient Blood and take on the role of Vampire one time only. They will then gain all of the privileges and benefits associated with their new role. If the second Vampire is killed, there will be no new Vampire and all Newborn Vampires revert to their previous roles.

TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE! BORROR0 MUST. BE. LYNCHED!

Since voting suddenly closed i had no time to react to change my choice to Borror0 and thus Soulreaper77 was taken in for questioning because his presence in the Town Hall was nonexistent.
When a Demon tries to possess someone the chance is 50% for all players so that is not enough to pin Soulreaper77 down.

But that is not important now oh ho ho no. Whats important now is getting this Vampiric bastard out of my hair, the streets, and this planet.

Quote from: Day 3 Scene 6
Thanks Hidea. Well, it looks like there was no Demonic possession last night. But rumors would have it that there was quite a lot of activity going on at the ilkaid house.

ilkaid has to be the Newborn.

Because Serial Killer got TightMuffin.

Demon Failed then went to sleep.
 
Werewolf Cant act until the night of Day 3.

What else is there other than Borror0 crashing into ilkaid's house!?

ilkaid if you are a special class other than a Newborn then i prefer you state it now.

ILKAID IF YOU ARE NOT A NEWBORN STATE: "I am a Newborn."
ILKAID IF YOU ARE A NEWBORN STATE: "I am not a Newborn."

This player will be forced to vote along with the Vampire. The Vampires seek to rule from within, and they wish to control the town by controlling its people, to make its people their people.

You cannot reveal your role as a Newborn Vampire at any time or you will be disqualified. You cannot reveal the identity of the Vampire player or you will be disqualified. If you do not vote who you are told to vote by the Vampire player then you will... you guessed it, be disqualified.

IF YOU ARE INNOCENT YOU SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERFORMING THE FIRST TEST!



I REPEAT BORROR0 MUST BE LYNCHED!
Did you know Satan was supposedly gods RIGHT HAND MAN, not his left. Blows your theory out of the water now doesn't it.

Online Tiffanys

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Going a bit too far there Meomix...

And the real question is, if what you're saying is true (I will not confirm nor deny) why should people vote out a Vampire (which will not kill them) over a Werewolf which will kill them, tonight in fact.

Offline Meomix

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Going a bit too far there Meomix...

And the real question is, if what you're saying is true (I will not confirm nor deny) why should people vote out a Vampire (which will not kill them) over a Werewolf which will kill them, tonight in fact.

Meh the pics were cool and fit the dialog.

I took the risks when i just exposed my identity, i had to give solid evidence on why i wanted Borror0 Lynched otherwise i would have been labeled as erratical and highly suspicious.

TightMuffin tried for the entire Day to gather votes against Arc Da Rat but did to not have enough evidence nor unwilling to risk exposing herself to the masses, in the end her target was not lynched.

As for me no one gains from this, either the Paladin, Demon or Vigilante will be after my ass.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2010, 08:11:49 AM by Meomix »
Did you know Satan was supposedly gods RIGHT HAND MAN, not his left. Blows your theory out of the water now doesn't it.

Online Tiffanys

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TightMuffin tried for the entire Day to gather votes against Arc Da Rat but did to not have enough evidence nor unwilling to risk exposing herself to the masses, in the end her target was not lynched.

Actually, if votes had been counted she would have been:

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edit:

And Meomix, I'm not talking about the "cool pics." I am referring explicitly to this:

ILKAID IF YOU ARE NOT A NEWBORN STATE: "I am a Newborn."
ILKAID IF YOU ARE A NEWBORN STATE: "I am not a Newborn."

IF YOU ARE INNOCENT YOU SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERFORMING THE FIRST TEST!

This, in any form, is against the game rules and will not be allowed.

Here are the official documents in case you think i'm making this all up

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And this, I mean c'mon... That just destroys the spirit of the game. I didn't think it was too much of a big deal in Game 3 personally, but when it goes to this level... that's just entirely inappropriate.

I revealed my own role. You're trying to reveal... let's count... 4? 5? people? That's just not acceptable, not like that.

I think I'm going to have to add a rule against this, it's pretty ridiculous.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2010, 08:44:50 AM by Tiffanys »

Offline Arc-sama

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Woah ... I wasn't expecting to even be alive ... either I'd be lynched or killed.

*orders a rum & coke then goes to review the reports*


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Offline Meomix

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TightMuffin tried for the entire Day to gather votes against Arc Da Rat but did to not have enough evidence nor unwilling to risk exposing herself to the masses, in the end her target was not lynched.

Actually, if votes had been counted she would have been:

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edit:

And Meomix, I'm not talking about the "cool pics." I am referring explicitly to this:

ILKAID IF YOU ARE NOT A NEWBORN STATE: "I am a Newborn."
ILKAID IF YOU ARE A NEWBORN STATE: "I am not a Newborn."

IF YOU ARE INNOCENT YOU SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PERFORMING THE FIRST TEST!

This, in any form, is against the game rules and will not be allowed.

Here are the official documents in case you think i'm making this all up

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And this, I mean c'mon... That just destroys the spirit of the game. I didn't think it was too much of a big deal in Game 3 personally, but when it goes to this level... that's just entirely inappropriate.

I revealed my own role. You're trying to reveal... let's count... 4? 5? people? That's just not acceptable, not like that.

I think I'm going to have to add a rule against this, it's pretty ridiculous.

Ok... Then i should have just said i was the Sheriff + Werewolf point at Borror0 and hope people "take my word for it!?"

Well then im stumped.
Did you know Satan was supposedly gods RIGHT HAND MAN, not his left. Blows your theory out of the water now doesn't it.