You know, those with silver bullets can do the job instead, we have..... 4 roles with it? Vigilante, Paladin, Serial Killer and Sheriff's own self.
Vigilante and Serial Killer can go for the kill immediately, or maybe Demon can make Sheriff shoot at self.
You forget the fact that innocents dying is beneficial to the killers and the special roles may or may not even be either alive or in control of their own actions at this point. With that aside, should they fail then they will either die or be turned, and this is a full moon night so even the Serial Killer wouldn't have an easy time of it.
While it may seem like the obvious choice to be beneficial for the innocents, it isn't exactly beneficial to the ones with the roles able to do said killing. In fact, they're taking a 50/50 chance of losing the game right then and there. Not very good odds if you ask me, when there are so many other choices. Attacking a Werewolf on a Moon night would be a stupid move by anyone with half a brain. It's better to make those kills on non-moon nights so they can't fight back.
Best case scenario, 5 people die tonight (lynch+skiller+demon+werewolf*2). That leaves 7 players. Worst case 3 die and 2 are turned werewolves. Then you have 4 Werewolves on your hands and you don't know who they are. Worse, they control majority vote. Worse, the only non-Werewolves at that point would be Serial Killer & Demon. Unless Serial Killer gets killed (pretty big chance of that). In which case, the Demon can't kill the Werewolves, so the only person that could possibly die is the innocent that is left (or whatever it is that's left). And so, then the Werewolves just group together and vote them off the island. Ta-da, Werewolf Victory, just like that.
You have a considerably higher chance of winning as a non-Werewolf with the other route, I'm afraid. But then the Vampire gets stronger, and even if you kill the Vampire you know then, even assuming the Vampire has 0 Newborn Vampires now, if they manage to get one tonight, then you'll be fighting the Vampire you don't know. It could be quite honestly anyone and you won't be able to kill them except by lynching and the only way you're going to be able to lynch them is admitting to be <insert special role>, which quite sadly if you're a killer won't be a possible route for you. So, really it's your popularity verse theirs, and if they have other Newborn Vampires at that point then that's extra people voting for their cause against you.
Of course, I suppose you could get lucky and take out the Vampire and then the New Vampire and somehow pull off a different Killer or Innocent Victory. Though, at the moment I'd say it looks like one of those two sides is probably going to win at this point.
Then again, I shouldn't really be saying anything at all. Come to think of it, I'm not even sure why I responded... I blame Meomix.
