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Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four

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ilkaid:

--- Quote from: Borror0 on October 02, 2010, 05:05:18 PM ---
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 04:43:47 PM ---But yes I do believe Meomix's accusation, I mean telling people a piece of information that will get you killed in order to take someone down, I don't see it being fake.
--- End quote ---

Here's the problem with using logic to explain Meomix's behavior: her decision to out herself makes no strategical sense.

Had she stayed quiet, werewolves would have probably won. Think about it, even with Chiyachan disqualified from the game they still had two werewolves and it was Day 3. Had she stayed quiet, there would be 3-4 werewolves by now out of ten players. Even if I am the vampire, it makes no sense to out yourself for it especially when I was already on the hot seat. I think it's safe to believe she just was angry at seeing her primary ally, Chiyachan, disqualified and blamed it on me.


--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 04:43:47 PM ---Everyone should vote borror0 give him just 2 more days and he will control the majority of votes and will win the game.
--- End quote ---

You're assuming that:
1. I'm the vampire you.
2. No vampire newborns have been killed to far.
3. The vampire's targets for the past two nights were not the demon, werewolves, or dead before he/she arrived.
4. The vampire's targets won't be the demon, werewolves, or dead before he/she arrives.

For all we know, you could be the vampire and have not a single newborn at your orders. Werewolves are, by far, a much greater treat than vampires are by now. In fact, leaving werewolves alive increase the chance of a vampire victory...

--- End quote ---

You cannot make me doubt Meomix, I am certain that you are the vampire.
1) You say werewolves are the bigger threat, where does this logic come from?
Night 1) Chiyachan started out as the werewolf, was taken into custody by Meomix the sheriff, Chiya attacks and turns Meomix, later you (the vampire) show up and attempt to convert Meomix it fails because she is a werewolf now.
Night 2) Chiyachan is lynched due to rules violation, You come to my house attempt to convert me, but are stopped by the paladin, you turn the paladin. Get newborn vampire number 1.
Night 3) Meomix is lynched, Meomix intended to turn/kill me. While this is going on you have a 6 in 7 chance of turning another follower
I got the 6 in 7 odds from:
You didn't target me
You didn't target the demon (the demon was sucessful if you had targeted them there action would have been inturrupted and they wouldn't have killed)
You wouldn't have targeted the paladin they are a newborn now afterall
You wouldn't have targeted Meomix because you can't convert a werewolf
There were 12 people alive last night removing 4 for the reasons I've listed above and you obviously can't target yourself that leaves you with 7 people, only one of those (Shabutie) could have been dead before you got there, with odds of 6 in 7 it isn't unreasonable to assume you were sucessful in turning someone (if people don't believe me when I say I wasn't targeted the chances become 7 in 8 even more likely that you were successful).
So which is the bigger threat? A vampire with 2 newborns or 0 werewolves?

2)No newborns have been killed.
I'm assuming that like a werewolf if a vampire newborn is killed their vampiric nature will be reported in the news.

3) 2 days and the you have the majority.
There are 10 people left alive, in that group there are: A vampire (borror0), 2 newborns (one of which is a paladin), The demon, Vigilante, Doctor and 4 innocents (possibly 5 innocents if the other newborn is vigilante or doctor)
Someone is going to be lynched tonight 7 in 9 chance (assuming people don't do the smart thing and vote for borror0) that the newborns are unharmed, 8 in 9 chance of not lynching the demon, borror0 has a 6 in 8 chance in sucessfully converting (assuming demon is sucessful in his possesion/murder attempts), this means by tommorow if we don't lynch borror0 today by tommorow there will be a reasonable chance (7/9*8/9*6/8*1/2=7/27=25.9%) of borror0 controlling 4/8 votes and another 25.9% chance of borror0 controlling 4/9 votes (in the second case its the odds of borror0 getting a 3rd newborn but the demon failing to kill)
either way borror0 has a 51.8% chance of getting a 3rd newborn tommorow and controllong a large chunk of the vote, with that large chunk he can vote out a non-vampire and ensure his majority and his victory.

tl;dr We need to vote out borror0 and if we don't take him out today chances are he is going to win.

flyawave:
essentially... that^
Borror0 is the vampire... end of, we can worry about werewolves later

suhaib:
hmmm,

after re-thinking i'm going to
change my vote to Borror0 !

Soulreaper77:
There are no werewolves left. Meomix, the only remaining werewolf, got lynched. And remember that when you are the lynch target you'll taken into custody and can't target ANYONE that day/night. Cause that will defeat the purpose of lynching.

Borror0:

--- Quote from: Soulreaper77 on October 02, 2010, 06:15:02 PM ---There are no werewolves left. Meomix, the only remaining werewolf, got lynched. And remember that when you are the lynch target you'll taken into custody and can't target ANYONE that day/night. Cause that will defeat the purpose of lynching.

--- End quote ---

Oh really? Then how do you interpret Tiffanys' earlier post? There is at least one werewolf left, most likely two. Chiyachan was able to attack his primary target, after turning Meomix into a werewolf. Fighting against the sheriff didn't keep him busy long enough.

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