Discussion Forums > Forum/Thread Games
Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four
Arc-sama:
* really confused that her head is spining *
All this time I though Hilde had a jacket on now I know she is wearing a bikini. oO
I'm gonna have to analyze this after I get back from work ... not enough time right now.
Borror0:
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 10:09:12 PM ---Assuming and it is a big assuption I know that the first 2 points are true (ignoring the demon for the moment) we are left with:
1 Vampire
1 Newborn vampire
1 Demon
1 Werewolf
5 Innocents (including doctor and vigilante)
--- End quote ---
Let's look at how likely that is.
Chance for the doctor to have targeted the right person: 1/8
Chance for me to have only one newborn out of two days: 3/12*7/9+9/12*2/9=36.11%
Let's look at how likely that is: (3/12*7/9+9/12*2/9)/8*100%=4.51%
Hmmm....
Now, let's look at how likely MY scenario is!
Chance for the werewolf to have turned someone if no reported death: 7/8
Chance for me to have two newborns out of two days: 9/12*7/9= 58.3%
( 9/12*7/9)*7/8=51.04%
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 10:09:12 PM ---Even if we assume the worst, there are two werewolves, we lynch Borror0, the new vampire turns an innocent and the demon kills an innocent
1 Vampire
2 Newborn Vampire
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents
We would be in trouble here but we vote out the next vampire and then innocents outnumber everyone.
--- End quote ---
You wouldn't be "just in trouble" because the best case scenario for the next day (which has a 1.5265% to occur*) would look like this:
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents
In other words, you're pretty much screwed.
*12.5% chance (or less) to pick the vampire, 25% chance for both the werewolves to kill target, and 50% for the demon to fail possession (1/8*1/4*1/2=1/64).
Look, if you're an innocent looking for who to gamble on, we're the winning team. If you side with us, we got a 100% chance to survive. Your chances of survival are abysmal (less than 2%) as an innocent. On the other hand, as a vampire, your chances to win are quite good. Plus, you get to live much longer and healthier than as an human. I don't see how it's not a great deal.
vuzedome:
I thought it's one move every night per killer, if any killer gets targeted, either by protector or another killer, the move is interrupted.
ilkaid:
Actually the 1 Vampire, 1 Newborn vampire, 1 Demon, 1 Werewolf, 5 Innocents (including doctor and vigilante) scenario works on the assumtion that you have 2 newborns currently, you are lynched today and 1 of your newborns replaces you and the replacement must wait one night before they are allowed to start targeting people. Looking at it like that the odds of this happening are (pending the answer to my question) the same as the odds of the doctor selecting the right person are 1 in 8 or 12.5%. Slim I'll admit but stranger things have happened (Chiya being werewolf twice for one).
You claim a 100% survival chance, where does that come from? It is in the best interest of non-vampires to take out the vampires, especially with so few players left and controlling the majority becomes easier.
--- Quote from: Borror0 on October 02, 2010, 11:00:06 PM ---
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 10:09:12 PM ---Even if we assume the worst, there are two werewolves, we lynch Borror0, the new vampire turns an innocent and the demon kills an innocent
1 Vampire
2 Newborn Vampire
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents
We would be in trouble here but we vote out the next vampire and then innocents outnumber everyone.
--- End quote ---
You wouldn't be "just in trouble" because the best case scenario for the next day (which has a 1.5265% to occur*) would look like this:
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents
In other words, you're pretty much screwed.
*12.5% chance (or less) to pick the vampire, 25% chance for both the werewolves to kill target, and 50% for the demon to fail possession (1/8*1/4*1/2=1/64).
--- End quote ---
This claim of this being the best case is a bit off, I mean there would at least be a doctor who can protect from both demon and wolf, and the vigilante who will shoot anyone who comes after him. Also there is a 50% chance that we can throw the paladin into the mix.
Soulreaper77:
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 10:09:12 PM ---1) If we Lynch Borror0 tonight, One of his newborns becomes the new vampire (A *very* important question for Tiff: Does the newborn who becomes a full vampire get to target someone the same night as the first vampire is lynched or will they have to wait a night?) depending on the anwser we may get a nights break from the bloodsuckers.
--- End quote ---
I really hope that it is the latter case. IMO Vampire would still be too overpowered if it's the first. I mean look at our situation now. We only know that Borror0 is the Vampire because Meomix sacrificed herself telling us. If Meomix didn't tell us anything the Vampire would have won already. Also if it's the first then the Vampire could still get a majority without any fears for his plan.
Also it kinda defeats the purpose if the Paladin can be turned but protects his person-he-was-protecting. The Vampire goes out to turn 1 person and it doesn't really matter if it's the Paladin or an Innocent. All that counts for the Vampire is that he gets that vote.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version