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Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four
ilkaid:
--- Quote from: Soulreaper77 on October 02, 2010, 11:43:00 PM ---
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 10:09:12 PM ---1) If we Lynch Borror0 tonight, One of his newborns becomes the new vampire (A *very* important question for Tiff: Does the newborn who becomes a full vampire get to target someone the same night as the first vampire is lynched or will they have to wait a night?) depending on the anwser we may get a nights break from the bloodsuckers.
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I really hope that it is the latter case. IMO Vampire would still be too overpowered if it's the first. I mean look at our situation now. We only know that Borror0 is the Vampire because Meomix sacrificed herself telling us. If Meomix didn't tell us anything the Vampire would have won already. Also if it's the first then the Vampire could still get a majority without any fears for his plan.
Also it kinda defeats the purpose if the Paladin can be turned but protects his person-he-was-protecting. The Vampire goes out to turn 1 person and it doesn't really matter if it's the Paladin or an Innocent. All that counts for the Vampire is that he gets that vote.
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I agree with you some rule modifying may be in order next round. Also it's 2 in the morning here I'm rather tired. So I'm off to bed, don't forget to vote out Borror0
Borror0:
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 11:34:57 PM ---Actually the 1 Vampire, 1 Newborn vampire, 1 Demon, 1 Werewolf, 5 Innocents (including doctor and vigilante) scenario works on the assumtion that you have 2 newborns currently, you are lynched today and 1 of your newborns replaces you and the replacement must wait one night before they are allowed to start targeting people. Looking at it like that the odds of this happening are (pending the answer to my question) the same as the odds of the doctor selecting the right person are 1 in 8 or 12.5%. Slim I'll admit but stranger things have happened (Chiya being werewolf twice for one).
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It's less likely that you make it be, still. You're assuming that the demon won't kill anybody either, so right there it's a 50% chance off. Down to 6.25% chance to actually work. However, that's not even taking into account the likelihood of there being only one werewolf. When you add all that, you're own to 0.8% of occurring...
I wouldn't bet on something with that low of a chance to happen. It's pure wishful thinking.
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 11:34:57 PM ---You claim a 100% survival chance, where does that come from? It is in the best interest of non-vampires to take out the vampires, especially with so few players left and controlling the majority becomes easier.
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It's not in the interest of non-vampires to vote the vampire out, as the innocents can practically only win if they become vampires or werewolves. Since werewolves have a chance to kill their allies, the vampire is simply the best team to pick. As to why they're assured to win if they join my team? Easy. We will control the lynch vote so we'll automatically win. A few will day at the hands of the demon but their chance of winning drastically go up if they side with us.
Like I said, it's either a vampire or a werewolf victory. There's no other choice. The vampire team is your best chance at being on the winning team.
--- Quote from: ilkaid on October 02, 2010, 11:34:57 PM ---This claim of this being the best case is a bit off, I mean there would at least be a doctor who can protect from both demon and wolf, and the vigilante who will shoot anyone who comes after him. Also there is a 50% chance that we can throw the paladin into the mix.
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That's beside the point. Even accounting for all of these, the probability that innocents will win are sub-6%. The possibility that any of the current newborn vampires/innocents are alive to brag about winning the game is even lower, as many will need to die. If you're currently alive and not a killer, you're better off picking the team vampire as, with your support, we're guaranteed to win.
vuzedome:
I'm all about keeping myself alive in this game and having a werewolf or two running around isn't going to help me at all.
The vampire character is pretty balanced, and pretty easy to finish off even if it's late into the game. If you really want to survive I'd suggest voting off any suspected of being a werewolf first.
Borror0:
So vote out ilkaid! I'm pretty sure he's the other werewolf. That's why he's denying the existence of werewolves.
vuzedome:
Is he denying it?
Yes or no, I'm sticking to my decision for now.
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