Werewolves, Serial Killers and Demons (Murdergame: Modified rules) Round Four

[Arc-sama]

* really confused that her head is spining *

All this time I though Hilde had a jacket on now I know she is wearing a bikini. oO

I'm gonna have to analyze this after I get back from work ... not enough time right now.

[Borror0]

Assuming and it is a big assuption I know that the first 2 points are true (ignoring the demon for the moment) we are left with:
1 Vampire
1 Newborn vampire
1 Demon
1 Werewolf
5 Innocents (including doctor and vigilante)

Let's look at how likely that is.

Chance for the doctor to have targeted the right person: 1/8
Chance for me to have only one newborn out of two days: 3/12*7/9+9/12*2/9=36.11%

Let's look at how likely that is: (3/12*7/9+9/12*2/9)/8*100%=4.51%

Hmmm....

Now, let's look at how likely MY scenario is!

Chance for the werewolf to have turned someone if no reported death: 7/8
Chance for me to have two newborns out of two days: 9/12*7/9= 58.3%

( 9/12*7/9)*7/8=51.04%

Even if we assume the worst, there are two werewolves, we lynch Borror0, the new vampire turns an innocent and the demon kills an innocent
1 Vampire
2 Newborn Vampire
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents

We would be in trouble here but we vote out the next vampire and then innocents outnumber everyone.

You wouldn't be "just in trouble" because the best case scenario for the next day (which has a 1.5265% to occur*) would look like this:
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents

In other words, you're pretty much screwed.

*12.5% chance (or less) to pick the vampire, 25% chance for both the werewolves to kill target, and 50% for the demon to fail possession (1/8*1/4*1/2=1/64).



Look, if you're an innocent looking for who to gamble on, we're the winning team. If you side with us, we got a 100% chance to survive. Your chances of survival are abysmal (less than 2%) as an innocent. On the other hand, as a vampire, your chances to win are quite good. Plus, you get to live much longer and healthier than as an human. I don't see how it's not a great deal.

[vuzedome]

I thought it's one move every night per killer, if any killer gets targeted, either by protector or another killer, the move is interrupted.

[ilkaid]

Actually the 1 Vampire, 1 Newborn vampire, 1 Demon, 1 Werewolf, 5 Innocents (including doctor and vigilante) scenario works on the assumtion that you have 2 newborns currently, you are lynched today and 1 of your newborns replaces you and the replacement must wait one night before they are allowed to start targeting people. Looking at it like that the odds of this happening are (pending the answer to my question) the same as the odds of the doctor selecting the right person are 1 in 8 or 12.5%. Slim I'll admit but stranger things have happened (Chiya being werewolf twice for one).

You claim a 100% survival chance, where does that come from? It is in the best interest of non-vampires to take out the vampires, especially with so few players left and controlling the majority becomes easier.

Even if we assume the worst, there are two werewolves, we lynch Borror0, the new vampire turns an innocent and the demon kills an innocent
1 Vampire
2 Newborn Vampire
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents

We would be in trouble here but we vote out the next vampire and then innocents outnumber everyone.

You wouldn't be "just in trouble" because the best case scenario for the next day (which has a 1.5265% to occur*) would look like this:
1 Demon
2 Werewolves
2 Innocents

In other words, you're pretty much screwed.

*12.5% chance (or less) to pick the vampire, 25% chance for both the werewolves to kill target, and 50% for the demon to fail possession (1/8*1/4*1/2=1/64).

This claim of this being the best case is a bit off, I mean there would at least be a doctor who can protect from both demon and wolf, and the vigilante who will shoot anyone who comes after him. Also there is a 50% chance that we can throw the paladin into the mix.

[Soulreaper77]

1) If we Lynch Borror0 tonight, One of his newborns becomes the new vampire (A *very* important question for Tiff: Does the newborn who becomes a full vampire get to target someone the same night as the first vampire is lynched or will they have to wait a night?) depending on the anwser we may get a nights break from the bloodsuckers.

I really hope that it is the latter case. IMO Vampire would still be too overpowered if it's the first. I mean look at our situation now. We only know that Borror0 is the Vampire because Meomix sacrificed herself telling us. If Meomix didn't tell us anything the Vampire would have won already. Also if it's the first then the Vampire could still get a majority without any fears for his plan.

Also it kinda defeats the purpose if the Paladin can be turned but protects his person-he-was-protecting. The Vampire goes out to turn 1 person and it doesn't really matter if it's the Paladin or an Innocent. All that counts for the Vampire is that he gets that vote.

[ilkaid]

1) If we Lynch Borror0 tonight, One of his newborns becomes the new vampire (A *very* important question for Tiff: Does the newborn who becomes a full vampire get to target someone the same night as the first vampire is lynched or will they have to wait a night?) depending on the anwser we may get a nights break from the bloodsuckers.

I really hope that it is the latter case. IMO Vampire would still be too overpowered if it's the first. I mean look at our situation now. We only know that Borror0 is the Vampire because Meomix sacrificed herself telling us. If Meomix didn't tell us anything the Vampire would have won already. Also if it's the first then the Vampire could still get a majority without any fears for his plan.

Also it kinda defeats the purpose if the Paladin can be turned but protects his person-he-was-protecting. The Vampire goes out to turn 1 person and it doesn't really matter if it's the Paladin or an Innocent. All that counts for the Vampire is that he gets that vote.

I agree with you some rule modifying may be in order next round. Also it's 2 in the morning here I'm rather tired. So I'm off to bed, don't forget to vote out Borror0

[Borror0]

Actually the 1 Vampire, 1 Newborn vampire, 1 Demon, 1 Werewolf, 5 Innocents (including doctor and vigilante) scenario works on the assumtion that you have 2 newborns currently, you are lynched today and 1 of your newborns replaces you and the replacement must wait one night before they are allowed to start targeting people. Looking at it like that the odds of this happening are (pending the answer to my question) the same as the odds of the doctor selecting the right person are 1 in 8 or 12.5%.  Slim I'll admit but stranger things have happened (Chiya being werewolf twice for one).

It's less likely that you make it be, still. You're assuming that the demon won't kill anybody either, so right there it's a 50% chance off. Down to 6.25% chance to actually work. However, that's not even taking into account the likelihood of there being only one werewolf. When you add all that, you're own to 0.8% of occurring...

I wouldn't bet on something with that low of a chance to happen. It's pure wishful thinking.

You claim a 100% survival chance, where does that come from? It is in the best interest of non-vampires to take out the vampires, especially with so few players left and controlling the majority becomes easier.

It's not in the interest of non-vampires to vote the vampire out, as the innocents can practically only win if they become vampires or werewolves. Since werewolves have a chance to kill their allies, the vampire is simply the best team to pick. As to why they're assured to win if they join my team? Easy. We will control the lynch vote so we'll automatically win. A few will day at the hands of the demon but their chance of winning drastically go up if they side with us.

Like I said, it's either a vampire or a werewolf victory. There's no other choice. The vampire team is your best chance at being on the winning team.

This claim of this being the best case is a bit off, I mean there would at least be a doctor who can protect from both demon and wolf, and the vigilante who will shoot anyone who comes after him. Also there is a 50% chance that we can throw the paladin into the mix.

That's beside the point. Even accounting for all of these, the probability that innocents will win are sub-6%. The possibility that any of the current newborn vampires/innocents are alive to brag about winning the game is even lower, as many will need to die. If you're currently alive and not a killer, you're better off picking the team vampire as, with your support, we're guaranteed to win.

[vuzedome]

I'm all about keeping myself alive in this game and having a werewolf or two running around isn't going to help me at all.

The vampire character is pretty balanced, and pretty easy to finish off even if it's late into the game. If you really want to survive I'd suggest voting off any suspected of being a werewolf first.

[Borror0]

So vote out ilkaid! I'm pretty sure he's the other werewolf. That's why he's denying the existence of werewolves.

[vuzedome]

Is he denying it?
Yes or no, I'm sticking to my decision for now.

[Borror0]

Is he denying it?
Yes or no, I'm sticking to my decision for now.

He was earlier. Now, it seems he's open to the possibility of there being one (tomoya-kun) but still is highly skeptical about the possibility of there being a second even though that's very likely (87.5% to be the case). The fact that he denies something so likely makes him, indeed, very suspicious.

Now, if you're looking for a reason to be a vampire, look at these Mimi Dracul sex tapes. *hands over tape* Still want to remain human?

[vuzedome]

Shit, I didn't know there were tapes?
Vampire come get me tonight~! 

[tomoya-kun]

Based on what I have seen, there must be a werewolf left. 

[Tiffanys]

To clear this up before it gets taken way too far...

If the Vampire role is lynched then a Newborn Vampire will take its place. The new Vampire will carry out its role that night.

And if by some fluke the new Vampire happens to be one of the Protectors then they can effectively target 2 people a night. You could choose to "protect" one person and "turn" another. Well, you turn one, then the one you're supposed to be protecting you turn as well. But wait, what if someone actually comes to kill the one you were protecting? Let's say (since it isn't a moon night) that the one that comes is a possessed. Well, then the possessed is just going to be turned, aren't they? And if the new Vampire happens to be a Paladin out of the protector roles then they could also be saved from possession as well. In fact, they'll have a very high chance of protecting their offspring by controlling both roles.

With that said, some of your theories are just silly. I read some plan up there that hinged on the fact that there is a Vigilante, Doctor and/or Paladin left. What if there isn't? Obviously no one has been shot yet. Maybe you guys lynched them on day 1, or maybe someone else killed them off. Unless you yourself are one of the roles then there is no way of knowing what is left, and hinging your entire decision on an unknown is just silly, especially when there is no proof whatsoever of them still being around or not. Actually, better proof of them not, considering...

So then that brings us to some other things...

A Werewolf Victory is a bit like the end of a bad Aliens movie. You're going to be ripped apart and eaten alive.
A Innocent Victory, which I have already stated is abysmally low thanks to Meomix, is great. Pass the booze and cheer, you're safe. Innocents aren't going to win this though, I can gather that much.
A Vampire Victory... Well, to be honest Borror0 actually had a good point. At this point as an Innocent you have a huge chance of your game ending, being slaughtered or losing. If you're turned into a vampire then suddenly you have a huge chance for not only staying in the game but having a victory as well. And well, what happens if you win? The world is already under Vampire Rule, and look at Mimi and the other vampires. Vampires seem to be treated very well. You guys are treating Vampires like they're the sickest worst things on the planet, worse than even serial killers and werewolves. But the Vampires aren't an "evil" role. They're actually a good role... Queen Ophelia sent them with the orders: 1. Not to kill anyone and 2. Stop the town's killers. Does that sound like some evil creature that has it out for you? It sounds to me like the Vampires are already looking out for the innocents. I mean, you guys are seriously demonizing Vampires when they're already around and a very positive influence, they're the good guys. And, if they do get majority control and win, then the maximum number of players possible are saved from death. To be honest, it's the best route anyone has of winning.

Unless well, you're a Werewolf or Demon. Best scenario for the Demon is to take out the Werewolf because they can't kill them. No silver. So, if it comes down to the Demon & Werewolf, the Werewolves win by default. As for the Werewolf, the best option is to take out the Vampire from the game and try to get a majority vote, hoping you don't end up ripping your target to shreds. A lot of people are going to die though... And well, the victory isn't exactly a pleasant one for anyone. The Werewolves are going to have to live with what they've done and everyone else? Well, they're dead.

Did I miss any questions?

Oh, to make it clear... Since the Werewolf on a moon night would change almost immediately when it becomes night (which is when they would attack someone anyways) then they would attack the sheriff and if they survive continue on to their target. Werewolves don't require planning like a Serial Killer or a lot of energy like a Demon. A Vampire could do the same thing since it's incredibly easy for them to turn someone. Heck, if some crazy coincidences and bizarre flukes happened, they could turn half the game in one night.

[Meomix]

To clear this up before it gets taken way too far...

If the Vampire role is lynched then a Newborn Vampire will take its place. The new Vampire will carry out its role that night.

So then that brings us to some other things...

A Vampire Victory... Well, to be honest Borror0 actually had a good point. At this point as an Innocent you have a huge chance of your game ending, being slaughtered or losing. If you're turned into a vampire then suddenly you have a huge chance for not only staying in the game but having a victory as well. And well, what happens if you win? The world is already under Vampire Rule, and look at Mimi and the other vampires. Vampires seem to be treated very well. You guys are treating Vampires like they're the sickest worst things on the planet, worse than even serial killers and werewolves. But the Vampires aren't an "evil" role. They're actually a good role... Queen Ophelia sent them with the orders: 1. Not to kill anyone and 2. Stop the town's killers. Does that sound like some evil creature that has it out for you? It sounds to me like the Vampires are already looking out for the innocents. I mean, you guys are seriously demonizing Vampires when they're already around and a very positive influence, they're the good guys. And, if they do get majority control and win, then the maximum number of players possible are saved from death. To be honest, it's the best route anyone has of winning.

Then what is the point of having the Innocents & Vampires if they are practically the same thing. only thing with the Vampire is you are forced to vote against their enemies otherwise you are disqualified...

Round 4: Vampire Victory.
Round 5: Vampire Victory.
Round 6: Vampire Victory.

[Tiffanys]

Then what is the point of having the Innocents & Vampires if they are practically the same thing. only thing with the Vampire is you are forced to vote against their enemies otherwise you are disqualified...

Have you played a Visual Novel? I think of it a bit like just another story route, whether you pick one girl or the other, they can both have good endings. And besides, it's giving innocents a bigger chance to win since they usually have utter crap chances of winning which is why I wanted to add it in the first place. Unless a game has a lot of innocents like Round 2, then it's going to have a huge chance of going to one of the killer's victory. I figure with vampires in the picture, it gives the little guy a bigger chance of actually winning since it'll force them to work together instead of having a bunch of silly little votes across the board for whatever bizarre reasons (and the ability to stop the killers, to help prolong the life of innocents and give them a better chance of winning). I mean really, sometimes there are 2 majors votes and then 3 people just pick some random person to vote for with no apparent reason. If they'd chosen one of the two major candidates then it would have effected the game drastically, but I guess they'd rather just be unimportant and not really effect the game whatsoever. If your vote means nothing and your being alive means nothing, then what's the point of even playing, yeah?

Anyways, that's my thoughts...

edit: Anyways, I think I'm gonna have to revise the rules next round to have a good base so it's easier for me to decide things, and whether bizarre stuff like someone somehow getting 2, 3, even 4 targets in one night (with enough coincidences folding in their favor) should even be allowed. As well as some other things...

I may revise some roles heavily and change some stuff around and more clearly define some rules, cause I'm finding a lot of holes in things I hadn't really thought about. Like every single freakin' protector choosing each other and every damn killer in the game choosing the same targets... Shit just gets weird. This has been a weird round to host... just downright strange.

[vuzedome]

Lol @ the protectors, it's a conspiracy. 

[Meomix]

Then what is the point of having the Innocents & Vampires if they are practically the same thing. only thing with the Vampire is you are forced to vote against their enemies otherwise you are disqualified...

Have you played a Visual Novel? I think of it a bit like just another story route, whether you pick one girl or the other, they can both have good endings. And besides, it's giving innocents a bigger chance to win since they usually have utter crap chances of winning which is why I wanted to add it in the first place. Unless a game has a lot of innocents like Round 2, then it's going to have a huge chance of going to one of the killer's victory. I figure with vampires in the picture, it gives the little guy a bigger chance of actually winning since it'll force them to work together instead of having a bunch of silly little votes across the board for whatever bizarre reasons (and the ability to stop the killers, to help prolong the life of innocents and give them a better chance of winning). I mean really, sometimes there are 2 majors votes and then 3 people just pick some random person to vote for with no apparent reason. If they'd chosen one of the two major candidates then it would have effected the game drastically, but I guess they'd rather just be unimportant and not really effect the game whatsoever. If your vote means nothing and your being alive means nothing, then what's the point of even playing, yeah?

Anyways, that's my thoughts...

Peh. Innocents survival rate is utter crap no doubt about that.
And as a Innocent you'd end up relying on vote speed to survive longer, even if you agree with someone, or wanted to talk, the only thing that would come out of your mouth is vote 1234568.

Hmm what else, yeah the biggest problem in the game currently is the hidden unstickied rules. It's practically the Pandoras Box.

edit: Anyways, I think I'm gonna have to revise the rules next round to have a good base so it's easier for me to decide things, and whether bizarre stuff like someone somehow getting 2, 3, even 4 targets in one night (with enough coincidences folding in their favor) should even be allowed. As well as some other things...

I may revise some roles heavily and change some stuff around and more clearly define some rules, cause I'm finding a lot of holes in things I hadn't really thought about. Like every single freakin' protector choosing each other and every damn killer in the game choosing the same targets... Shit just gets weird. This has been a weird round to host... just downright strange.

Thats some X-Files-ish wacked out coincidences there, im kind of impressed the Town Hall was quiet yet outside of it was a endless warzone.

As for the rules so far.

Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Werewolf 50% (Other is death)
Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Demon 50% (Other is Possession or Death)
Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Vigilante ??% (Does Vigilante see Born as threat - If they do, stick with Auto Shoot? Can he shoot before Born Turns Him? Does he Cooperate and Turn?)
Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Serial Killer 0% or 50% (Serial Killer gets turned Newborn. Can he kill other Newborns?)


Sheriff >>to>> Newborn = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name learned?
Paladin >>to>> Newborn = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name learned?
Doctor >>to>> Newborn = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name learned?
Newborn(s) >>to>> Sheriff / Paladin / Doctor / Demon / Holycrap etc etc  = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name Learned.

Nurse: Does this only activate when Doctor dies or already picks someone? Does it pick only Innocents or is utterly random?


Suggestion: Game Master - 20 hours for voting, when voting ends 5 hours to prepare next day?
Suggestion: http://countdown.onlineclock.net/ to keep track of time.
Suggestion: http://wordsmith.org/anagram/ for advanced clues? (Of course everyone will be tearing google apart)


Yeees im done! Finally going to watch some anime.

[Tiffanys]

Peh. Innocents survival rate is utter crap no doubt about that.

Yeah....

Hmm what else, yeah the biggest problem in the game currently is the hidden unstickied rules. It's practically the Pandoras Box.

Well, I can't write down every single rule that will need to be made because: 1. I'm not an omnipotent being, and 2. There's a ton of things that could come up that will need to be added. and 3. If I think of it and consider it important enough to be a rule, then it is added.

Thats some X-Files-ish wacked out coincidences there

Tell me about it lol...

Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Werewolf 50% (Other is death)
Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Demon 50% (Other is Possession or Death)
Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Vigilante ??% (Does Vigilante see Born as threat - If they do, stick with Auto Shoot? Can he shoot before Born Turns Him? Does he Cooperate and Turn?)
Newborn Vampire Innocent: Survival to Serial Killer 0% or 50% (Serial Killer gets turned Newborn. Can he kill other Newborns?)

This makes no sense... I'm not sure you understand the rules as they are. Newborns can't turn anyone, only the Vampire can. Aaand... a Newborn Vampire Serial Killer wouldn't be able to target other Newborns, no. If their master didn't tell them, they'd figure it out when they got there.

Sheriff >>to>> Newborn = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name learned?
Paladin >>to>> Newborn = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name learned?
Doctor >>to>> Newborn = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name learned?
Newborn(s) >>to>> Sheriff / Paladin / Doctor / Demon / Holycrap etc etc  = Nothing Happens or Identity + Name Learned.

Nurse: Does this only activate when Doctor dies or already picks someone? Does it pick only Innocents or is utterly random?

Uhh.. what? You pretty much can't find out the identity of newborns, no matter what your role is.

Nurse is selected after the Doctor dies, it's randomized out of the remaining innocents.

Suggestion: Game Master - 20 hours for voting, when voting ends 5 hours to prepare next day?
Suggestion: http://countdown.onlineclock.net/ to keep track of time.
Suggestion: http://wordsmith.org/anagram/ for advanced clues? (Of course everyone will be tearing google apart)

That's not going to happen. 24 hours is a long amount of time and easiest to keep track of. And well... it's stressful enough to prepare everything properly as it is, I'm not going to put some retarded rule to try to force myself to get it done in under 5 hours. What happens if I don't, do I get a slap on the wrist? A spanking? Kinda silly to even think about adding a stupid rule like that. Stuff comes up, delays happen. That's just how it's going to work.

And I think anagrams are retarded tbh. Nobody will get them. I could leave obvious clues, like entire words of really good clues, and maybe 1 person would find it....... maybe.

[scotsman]

.....Wtf is the point in a protecting role if they can't even stop a vampire from turning them. Vampires kill people. The lynch who ever isn't a vampire, newborns are just another word for slaves and you can still be killed by a killer if your turned.
An innocent win is completely different from a vampire win. I'll also admit that innocents aren't going to win this game or any game that the vampire role is in.