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Tiffany's Murdergame - Round Five: Vampires, Rapists, Revivals, oh my.

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scotsman:
The demon was inactive when SeventyX7 as well so It could be either one of us or the serial killer could be SeventyX7 or it could be none of us and we don't have a fucking clue who it is. God knows what Teaparty's been smoking and the only people alive I know to be innocent are harpy and Arc.
8 of us will be dead by tomorrow anyway so boxing me me if you want. I'm gonna sit back, relax and watch the world BURN!

vuzedome:
Well vote at least.

Arc-sama:
AAAUGGGHH ... I got too many theories running in my head ...

I'm voting for scotsman ... due to the fact the pressured dropped when he was questioned.

Currently, I don't think Shabutie & seventyX7 are any of the killers.

Tiffanys:

--- Quote from: Arc Da Rat on February 15, 2011, 11:12:23 AM ---Forgot to add Havoc10K being killed ....
--- End quote ---

Oh, sorry looks like you're right... Well, here then I'll expand on some things:



Day 2 news said there was Demon activity, so Arc is innocent.

Scotsman could be the Demon and SeventyX7 could be either killer. Since we know the Demon wasn't boxed or killed, this means that on Day 3 due to the "spiritual pressure dropping pretty hard" either the Demon got Feedback (which could have also occurred on Day 2), or was the tortured scotsman. "We're still having trouble reattaching one of his toes . . . We expect the toe to be back to normal within a few days. The other removed limbs, digits, finger nails and skin seem to have recovered nicely. As good as new!" Either scenario is obviously possible.

It's impossible to know about Borror0 since there is no data.

All this shows is that the ones mentioned above could be the killers, but it does not rule out the fact that they also could be innocent. It also neglects the fact that anyone that wasn't questioned could be the killers as well.

There are a ton of clues in the news, some specific ones I mentioned where to look a couple posts ago. I'll also say that there are no inactive players as Killers. So:

Could not be Killers:
Arc Da Rat
harpy
Havanacus
pmDarkly
tomoya-kun

Could be Killers:
shabutie - Claims to be Tertiary Adjunct
Teaparty - Claims to be Grand Inquisitor
SeventyX7
scotsman
saidin1015
flyawave
suhaib
vuzedome
Meomix
1000mAh
TightMuffin
Klocknov
Borror0

So, if you also eliminate the two that claimed to be roles (though they certainly haven't been proven), that means there are 11 possible candidates. That means based on sheer luck alone, you have a 9% chance of guessing who the killer is.

However... if you look at the clues I gave you, the possible choices drop down substantially. The single biggest clue that will cut out the largest pool of players is this: "You're all a bunch of mindless sheep being manipulated by the very criminals you're trying to apprehend, if you're even trying in the first place." Which, was seen in Day 4 Night Scene 3.

So, if this is true and at least one of the killers is a player that has been very vocal and actively influenced player voting, how many choices do you have? If you follow this advice and determine which players have done this, and there are very few of them, you will have an extremely high chance of boxing at least one killer tonight. I would say out of the above, there are likely 3 that have done this. You can figure out who they are. And that being the case, that means if voting based on this, there is a 1 in 3 chance of taking out a killer.

Of course, when it's down to that, examine the other clues. I bet you can actually get it narrowed down to 2 or even 1. And that would be what I'd call extremely good odds.

scotsman:

--- Quote from: vuzedome on February 15, 2011, 12:30:28 PM ---Well vote at least.

--- End quote ---
Then I'll vote for SeventyX7 and laugh at you all for voting for me.

The problem with the whole "bandwagon" thing is that by the time it gets noticed your to late to tell people to vote for someone. Heck half of them don't check the forum that often and your vote will count for nothing if you vote for who you want anyway so you can only choose one of the 2 highest voted.

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