Discussion Forums > Gaming
Crytek suffer HUGE leak PLAYABLE Crysis II beta released
Khundes:
--- Quote from: Guru Zeb on February 15, 2011, 02:06:51 PM ---Leak is awful for Crysis ........ hmmmm well i can guarantee they would have (probably) preferred it not to happen. But lets get real.
This is not so bad for Crytek because:-
1:
The leak will/has massively accelerated the viral hype train around Crysis II, garnering HUGE amounts of free publicity in media areas that Crytek would have had no way of influencing via conventional channels. One of the reasons many observers have speculated that this 'leak' maybe just be a clever publicity stunt.
As this has happened over month prior to release day Crytek have plenty of time to alter the authentication master key for launch.
--- End quote ---
People claiming it's a clever publicity stunt are just looking to justify their piracy. Here's a hard truth: They're wrong and they're in denial to make themselves look like not so bad people.
--- Quote ---2:
A leaked early beta ( i have played it, its very un-finished ) is not going to harm sales as the leak is not a even close to a fully featured final game. Look at it more as a freaky expanded alpha demo. Sales of Crysis II will be HUGE no doubt about that.
--- End quote ---
The last month of "development" is hardly that. Gold Master is when the game gets shipped off to factories so it gets boxed. No real room for improvement there. They were likely near the end of beta testing, though who knows how recent the leaked beta actually was.
Plus, having been a tester myself, I can assure you a game can look very unfinished until a few days before it's shipped, when they finally dump you a build with everything patched up. At that point though, features are already all implemented. Nothing new gets added in that phase ever. Stuff does get cut out though.
--- Quote ---3:
Don't see how a leak impacts on choice of dev platform, a leak is a leak separate from platform considerations, would you expect Crytek to drop Xbox if a leak of that beta occurred? No of course not as the focus after a leak is internal security, asset management/security, and staff asset access, protocol compliance and staff vetting. Plenty of piracy on consoles too, especially now that PS3 has been cracked wide open.
--- End quote ---
It's all about profitability. If the PC version sells poorly, guess who's the scapegoat? The game's quality? The substandard graphics? Of course not, it'll be the pirates. And the industry is very good with such limited views.
Also there's a core difference with a game being leaked BEFORE release, and a game being cracked after having been on the market for a while.
And about the PS3, trust has been lost over that issue. More to the point: The DS lost the GBA slot in favor of a camera. Is it because people genuinely wanted a poor resolution camera on their portable console more then a slot that allows even more games to be played? Or is it because that GBA slot enabled a lot of DS piracy? This isn't even hard to see. There was nerd rage over that lost slot, pirates shunned the DSi and no one really said anything good about the camera.
So of course such cases of piracy matter. Especially with the PC, generally seen as the most pirated platform. Note that this leak does not help the PC in any way.
--- Quote ---4:
As yet there is still no news on exactly how the leak occurred, but i'd cool the righteous indignation as it could easily have been an accident....... or deliberate publicity stunt if your in the conspiracy theory camp.
--- End quote ---
Have you ever SEEN the inner workings of a game studio? The strict confidentiality? Here's a sample:
-No portable memory device allowed, including anything that can be refurbished into a memory device(That means even a regular DS is not allowed in).
-No camera or other recording device allowed inside at any time.
-For a studio of 1000 (Ubisoft Montreal in this case), there is ONE internet-capable computer and it is HEAVILY monitored.
Under such circumstances, how do you explain "whoops I leaked the game?" And your conspiracy theory does not serve any cause, it's self-righteous justification for piracy. Especially if you still believe that it will not harm sales, because it will.
"I could have the whole thing for 70$ and a trip to the game store or a good playable chunk of it for free and a few mouse clicks"
It's just how things are, and it's the same problem with the american anime industry.
--- Quote ---hmmmmm from what i have seen ( only played leak a little just for a look see ) the game has been cut down a little, suit controls have been streamlined, fewer suit modes, new visor mode, and IIRC going prone is gone now. Many of these differences could be aspects of the leak build not indicative of the final game ....... check the official demo.
--- End quote ---
Your point?
Guru Zeb:
--- Quote from: Khundes on February 16, 2011, 02:44:54 AM ---People claiming it's a clever publicity stunt are just looking to justify their piracy. Here's a hard truth: They're wrong and they're in denial to make themselves look like not so bad people.
--- End quote ---
No people claiming its a publicity stunt are just being typical, modern, media jaundiced, conspiracy promoters. I think you over emphasize some kind of moral decision, that only you see. No one has to justify anything .... though i'd be interested to hear you make some kind of defence of your implicit piracy of Japanese media content without sounding like a monstrous hypocrite. Hows ripping of Japanese media ok, but ripping off German media (from an industry several times the size of the Anime industry) is a crime against humanity.
Maybe you don't keep yourself informed but quite a few blogs and even a couple of game sites have commented on how the leak could be a publicity stunt, not an idea i subscribe to personally.
But idea is way more widespread than just those who have downloaded the game ...... i would have though someone with your sharp perceptions and industry contacts you must have would have known this.
Notice you only tackle the part of my argument that can be refuted by nothing more than opinionated hyperbole, and self righteous moral indignation.
No comment on how this will not kick the hype-train into global overdrive, resulting in more sales.
Or that Crytek have time to alter the Auth master key ......... still if built a house of straw i'd be careful what i sneezed on.
--- Quote ---The last month of "development" is hardly that. Gold Master is when the game gets shipped off to factories so it gets boxed. No real room for improvement there. They were likely near the end of beta testing, though who knows how recent the leaked beta actually was.
Plus, having been a tester myself, I can assure you a game can look very unfinished until a few days before it's shipped, when they finally dump you a build with everything patched up. At that point though, features are already all implemented. Nothing new gets added in that phase ever. Stuff does get cut out though.
--- End quote ---
Considering you haven't seen the leaked beta ( but i have ), you seem to be making a lot of assumption and statements based on a gaping hole where some actual knowledge ought to be.
Here are some genuine facts for you:
1: The beta (am still not sure it should even be called a beta but whatever ) is from an early January build.
2: The beta is missing all manor of things, textures, sounds, objects, script elements. Large parts of the options menus don't work at all. Level transport is not fully implemented, etc ........
What i've seen is nothing like even close to a fully featured demo let alone a gold master. its main feature for downloaders seems to be the fact that it actually runs and there isn't an official demo yet.
Tester .... what an employed internal tester or one of the kiddy goons the publishers insist you roll into the studio to make gee wow noises on a saturday.
I ask as i have been employed by 2 games companies and done freelance work for 3 others as modeller/Animator. :P
But i see no relevance in your remark as what a studio can do in a few days to finalise a game is irrelevant to the fact that the beta is not going to get any further studio dev now its public. The beta is what it is and will stay what it is a very unpolished and flawed early beta copy missing lots of finalised features and content.
--- Quote ---It's all about profitability. If the PC version sells poorly, guess who's the scapegoat? The game's quality? The substandard graphics? Of course not, it'll be the pirates. And the industry is very good with such limited views.
Also there's a core difference with a game being leaked BEFORE release, and a game being cracked after having been on the market for a while.
And about the PS3, trust has been lost over that issue. More to the point: The DS lost the GBA slot in favor of a camera. Is it because people genuinely wanted a poor resolution camera on their portable console more then a slot that allows even more games to be played? Or is it because that GBA slot enabled a lot of DS piracy? This isn't even hard to see. There was nerd rage over that lost slot, pirates shunned the DSi and no one really said anything good about the camera.
So of course such cases of piracy matter. Especially with the PC, generally seen as the most pirated platform. Note that this leak does not help the PC in any way.
--- End quote ---
Once again you fly of on another 'outraged from cyberspace' rant, whilst ignoring the 10,000Ibs Gorilla in the room.
The simple fact that the chance of Crysis NOT selling well is pretty much non existent. Am willing to take any bet you want on the sales of Crysis making at least top 5 sales more likely top 3 very possibly #1 ...... even if its just a 0 sum bet for forum face. Seriously your not trying to tell me Crysis will sell badly due to the leak of a seriously compromised old beta ....... lol.
I guarantee exactly the opposite will happen. Am happy to take the bet, I'll even take the bet on 1st week sales figures
...... if your happy to acknowledge your assertion and stand behind it.
Explain to me how an illegal release of a highly unfinished beta which is not even at true demo stage, is worst than the inevitable cracking of the final commercial product. GCS freely released beta and alpha versions of S.T.A.L.K.E.R whilst it was in dev and it didn't harm their sales or stop STALKER achieving cult game status.
The 'it will harm sales' argument is incredibly crass and specious as the beta is soooo unfinished that no one who intended to buy the game would be happy with the beta, its not even demo version polished ::)
If you'd seen it maybe you would realized that.
Console games get leaked early all the time and still sell millions of units on official release.
Exactly what point are you trying to make with the DS potted history (this is not a wiki page you know m8) I don't see how the comment in any way supports any point you may want yo make, as no one is going to invade your house and alter the hardware on your PC. If your point was in some cases piracy matters ........... all i can say is 'No shit Sherlock'.
But it matters most where companies overcharge and exploit gamers, and its pretty much defined by a companies response to piracy. The mature response 'its a fact of content development, but in reality it has little affect on sales, minimise it and move on' or the greedy corporate attitude 'any use of our content should and will be paid for, and we'll take any steps to make that happen'.
I'll agree it doesn't do the PC any favours ........ but it doesn't do it anywhere near as much real harm as you seem to imagine either.
--- Quote ---Have you ever SEEN the inner workings of a game studio? The strict confidentiality? Here's a sample:
-No portable memory device allowed, including anything that can be refurbished into a memory device(That means even a regular DS is not allowed in).
-No camera or other recording device allowed inside at any time.
-For a studio of 1000 (Ubisoft Montreal in this case), there is ONE internet-capable computer and it is HEAVILY monitored.
Under such circumstances, how do you explain "whoops I leaked the game?" And your conspiracy theory does not serve any cause, it's self-righteous justification for piracy. Especially if you still believe that it will not harm sales, because it will.
"I could have the whole thing for 70$ and a trip to the game store or a good playable chunk of it for free and a few mouse clicks"
It's just how things are, and it's the same problem with the american anime industry.
--- End quote ---
Yeah i HAVE SEEN the internal workings of the games industry ( See above ) Also still have several friends working in big games devs........ and am obviously much more aware than you are of some of the hairy arsed, going commando type shit that actually goes on. Demo versions left unattended in magazine or review sites offices whilst everyone goes to the pub, dev versions taken home to work with or just screw around with, demo versions that disappear at trade fairs, etc, etc.
All contrary to correct studio policies, but it happens the list is actually fuckin' endless.
In most cases the primary concern is avoiding the publisher finding out, that can be REALLY bad juju
Oh yeah just to correct yet another unsupported assertion of yours ...... I DON'T HAVE a conspiracy theory. I was the one to 1st call it a 'conspiracy theory' and at no point have i stated or suggested that i subscribe to the theory. When your open minded it is possible to comment on something you don't believe yourself. The only one i hear who's self righteous is you, and no one needs to justify anything ...... but a lot of people who have no interest in downloading the beta still subscribe to the theory ..... personally thinking a little laterally about it i feel its got more to do with how jaundiced and suspicious people are of modern media manipulation than anything else.
once again making the mistake of basing your assertions on MASSIVE lack of actual knowledge. I actually said it a few times in my previous post ........ THE GAME IS MASSIVELY UNFINISHED. No one who intended to buy it would be put off buying it in favour of holding onto the beta, it is far less finished than a bad demo. Only people it would put off a purchase would be people who just didn't like it = same result as a proper demo.
--- Quote from: mgz on February 15, 2011, 10:12:43 PM ---your assumptions of holographic tech are just that. With as poorly received as 3d tech is dont be surprised if in the next 10 years you start to see holographic tech on the consumer market. I wouldnt be shocked to see holographic things in functional format for people to use in like 15 years where its either part of the video cards or like the physx cards were when they first came out a couple hundred bucks extra for a holo card
--- End quote ---
No actually my opinions are based on a professional and personal interest in 3D technology that spans about the past 20 years, backed by fairly detailed knowledge of whats happening research-wise with respect to actual holographic projection.
No offence but maybe you don't understand how full motion holograms are generated, it will take more than just a new generation of graphics adapter to enable genuine consumer level holographics, a completely new form of consumer level display technology is needed as you cannot protect holograms from a screen. Holograms are projected and would require calibrated projectors which are expensive, difficult to setup, unreliable in various light conditions and from other than very restrictive angles, etc. or some kind of Holo-tank technology ..... which is suggested by researchers but far from being developed.Ok so what you meant to say in your 1st post was that in 10-15 years hologram tech is likely to be available. And you think PCs and consoles will even still exist then?!?!?
Khundes:
--- Quote from: Guru Zeb on February 16, 2011, 09:01:03 PM ---
--- Quote from: Khundes on February 16, 2011, 02:44:54 AM ---People claiming it's a clever publicity stunt are just looking to justify their piracy. Here's a hard truth: They're wrong and they're in denial to make themselves look like not so bad people.
--- End quote ---
No people claiming its a publicity stunt are just being typical, modern, media jaundiced, conspiracy promoters. I think you over emphasize some kind of moral decision, that only you see. No one has to justify anything .... though i'd be interested to hear you make some kind of defence of your implicit piracy of Japanese media content without sounding like a monstrous hypocrite. Hows ripping of Japanese media ok, but ripping off German media (from an industry several times the size of the Anime industry) is a crime against humanity.
Maybe you don't keep yourself informed but quite a few blogs and even a couple of game sites have commented on how the leak could be a publicity stunt, not an idea i subscribe to personally.
But idea is way more widespread than just those who have downloaded the game ...... i would have though someone with your sharp perceptions and industry contacts you must have would have known this.
Notice you only tackle the part of my argument that can be refuted by nothing more than opinionated hyperbole, and self righteous moral indignation.
No comment on how this will not kick the hype-train into global overdrive, resulting in more sales.
Or that Crytek have time to alter the Auth master key ......... still if built a house of straw i'd be careful what i sneezed on.
--- End quote ---
Uh... strawman's argument. The conspiracy theory is the justification.
And lol @ hypocrisy. Crytek and american anime industries are two completely different monsters, and I do my part in supporting the Japanese industry, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future.
And sneers at me? really?
Notice how you conveniently ignore my argument. But just for the sake of argument, I'll go in detail.
What is a leaked beta? Or leaked build from mid January? It's a buggy half-implemented yet playable version of the game. Now I'll make a broad argument and say there's 5 types of people that matter in this argument.
1- People who get the leak and are disappointed. These people will not buy the game. No matter what.
2- People who get the leak and are satisfied. These people MIGHT get the 70 bucks game or be satisfied with just the beta and wait until the game drops in price. And yes there's probably some in here that will buy the game, but if history repeats itself and it has a tendency to, these will be a tiny minority of this group of people. Note that most of these people might have bought the game full price without the leak.
3- People who don't get the leak and don't look for details about it. These will be unaffected by the leak (The more people hearing about the leak, the smaller this category)
4- People who don't get the leak but see it and get a positive opinion from it. These will probably buy it, provided they don't get the leak first, in which case they'd fall into category 2.
5- People who see the leak and get a negative opinion of it. These are all LOST SALES. Even if they would have hated the game, some of these people would have bought the game anyway. This is a serious loss of profits.
The safest place for people to be is in category 3, from a company standpoint. Yes, categories 2 and 4 will generate some sales, but chances are most of these sales would have happened anyway. Now you said it yourself, the leak is a buggy mess of a beta. It is FAR more likely to generate people from categories 1 and 5. Anyone who knows anything about games and marketing knows this. "Leaked" screens are one thing. A leaked playable is a whole other monster. No company in its right mind would do this. It's akin to commercial suicide.
Therefore, all these conspiracy theorists defend their point as a means of justifying their piracy. Because "Hey, it's just a marketing ploy right? I'm not hurting anyone right? It's all a conspiracy right? I'm good right? *Pirates*".
--- Quote ---
--- Quote ---The last month of "development" is hardly that. Gold Master is when the game gets shipped off to factories so it gets boxed. No real room for improvement there. They were likely near the end of beta testing, though who knows how recent the leaked beta actually was.
Plus, having been a tester myself, I can assure you a game can look very unfinished until a few days before it's shipped, when they finally dump you a build with everything patched up. At that point though, features are already all implemented. Nothing new gets added in that phase ever. Stuff does get cut out though.
--- End quote ---
Considering you haven't seen the leaked beta ( but i have ), you seem to be making a lot of assumption and statements based on a gaping hole where some actual knowledge ought to be.
Here are some genuine facts for you:
1: The beta (am still not sure it should even be called a beta but whatever ) is from an early January build.
2: The beta is missing all manor of things, textures, sounds, objects, script elements. Large parts of the options menus don't work at all. Level transport is not fully implemented, etc ........
What i've seen is nothing like even close to a fully featured demo let alone a gold master. its main feature for downloaders seems to be the fact that it actually runs and there isn't an official demo yet.
Tester .... what an employed internal tester or one of the kiddy goons the publishers insist you roll into the studio to make gee wow noises on a saturday.
I ask as i have been employed by 2 games companies and done freelance work for 3 others as modeller/Animator. :P
But i see no relevance in your remark as what a studio can do in a few days to finalise a game is irrelevant to the fact that the beta is not going to get any further studio dev now its public. The beta is what it is and will stay what it is a very unpolished and flawed early beta copy missing lots of finalised features and content.
--- End quote ---
My point is, IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IS IN THE DAMN BETA. What does matter is that is it playable and showcases most of what the game intends to offer! What matters is that it creates expectations, or most likely if it's very unpolished, a lack of them! This hurts sales!
Congrats on your curriculum. Might want to review the security protocols where you work before claiming you can accidentally leak games again. It might affect your credibility. Or your employment opportunities, should you be the source of such an accidental leak. You know. For your own good.
--- Quote ---
--- Quote ---It's all about profitability. If the PC version sells poorly, guess who's the scapegoat? The game's quality? The substandard graphics? Of course not, it'll be the pirates. And the industry is very good with such limited views.
Also there's a core difference with a game being leaked BEFORE release, and a game being cracked after having been on the market for a while.
And about the PS3, trust has been lost over that issue. More to the point: The DS lost the GBA slot in favor of a camera. Is it because people genuinely wanted a poor resolution camera on their portable console more then a slot that allows even more games to be played? Or is it because that GBA slot enabled a lot of DS piracy? This isn't even hard to see. There was nerd rage over that lost slot, pirates shunned the DSi and no one really said anything good about the camera.
So of course such cases of piracy matter. Especially with the PC, generally seen as the most pirated platform. Note that this leak does not help the PC in any way.
--- End quote ---
Once again you fly of on another 'outraged from cyberspace' rant, whilst ignoring the 10,000Ibs Gorilla in the room.
The simple fact that the chance of Crysis NOT selling well is pretty much non existent. Am willing to take any bet you want on the sales of Crysis making at least top 5 sales more likely top 3 very possibly #1 ...... even if its just a 0 sum bet for forum face. Seriously your not trying to tell me Crysis will sell badly due to the leak of a seriously compromised old beta ....... lol.
I guarantee exactly the opposite will happen. Am happy to take the bet, I'll even take the bet on 1st week sales figures
...... if your happy to acknowledge your assertion and stand behind it.
Explain to me how an illegal release of a highly unfinished beta which is not even at true demo stage, is worst than the inevitable cracking of the final commercial product. GCS freely released beta and alpha versions of S.T.A.L.K.E.R whilst it was in dev and it didn't harm their sales or stop STALKER achieving cult game status.
The 'it will harm sales' argument is incredibly crass and specious as the beta is soooo unfinished that no one who intended to buy the game would be happy with the beta, its not even demo version polished ::)
If you'd seen it maybe you would realized that.
Console games get leaked early all the time and still sell millions of units on official release.
Exactly what point are you trying to make with the DS potted history (this is not a wiki page you know m8) I don't see how the comment in any way supports any point you may want yo make, as no one is going to invade your house and alter the hardware on your PC. If your point was in some cases piracy matters ........... all i can say is 'No shit Sherlock'.
But it matters most where companies overcharge and exploit gamers, and its pretty much defined by a companies response to piracy. The mature response 'its a fact of content development, but in reality it has little affect on sales, minimise it and move on' or the greedy corporate attitude 'any use of our content should and will be paid for, and we'll take any steps to make that happen'.
I'll agree it doesn't do the PC any favours ........ but it doesn't do it anywhere near as much real harm as you seem to imagine either.
--- End quote ---
Your bet idea is funny. The very basis of your bet idea is funny.
If people agree with me and support my stance, you win your bet.
But if people agree with you and your stance, I win your bet.
There's some sort of flawed logic there.
Your STALKER example is worlds away from this Crysis leak. The original STALKER was leaked 3 years before its release. And the original leak showed barely anything about the gameplay. This is a leak of a build approximately 2 months before the release. It's almost final, and the core aspects of gameplay are all there. STALKER is more like Half-Life 2, where they just redid the whole game rather then release the same that as what was leaked. Crytek doesn't have the money to do that, unfortunately. And they know it.
What point AM I making with the DS's evolution? Maybe that piracy influences console makers to improve security of their devices because they don't want it to happen and that PC games have to deal with a far less secure system and this invariably moving developers AWAY from the PC? Heck, why do you think a lot of PC games lately are console ports?
"Greedy corporate attitude"? Really now?
--- Quote ---
--- Quote ---Have you ever SEEN the inner workings of a game studio? The strict confidentiality? Here's a sample:
-No portable memory device allowed, including anything that can be refurbished into a memory device(That means even a regular DS is not allowed in).
-No camera or other recording device allowed inside at any time.
-For a studio of 1000 (Ubisoft Montreal in this case), there is ONE internet-capable computer and it is HEAVILY monitored.
Under such circumstances, how do you explain "whoops I leaked the game?" And your conspiracy theory does not serve any cause, it's self-righteous justification for piracy. Especially if you still believe that it will not harm sales, because it will.
"I could have the whole thing for 70$ and a trip to the game store or a good playable chunk of it for free and a few mouse clicks"
It's just how things are, and it's the same problem with the american anime industry.
--- End quote ---
Yeah i HAVE SEEN the internal workings of the games industry ( See above ) Also still have several friends working in big games devs........ and am obviously much more aware than you are of some of the hairy arsed, going commando type shit that actually goes on. Demo versions left unattended in magazine or review sites offices whilst everyone goes to the pub, dev versions taken home to work with or just screw around with, demo versions that disappear at trade fairs, etc, etc.
All contrary to correct studio policies, but it happens the list is actually fuckin' endless.
In most cases the primary concern is avoiding the publisher finding out, that can be REALLY bad juju
Oh yeah just to correct yet another unsupported assertion of yours ...... I DON'T HAVE a conspiracy theory. I was the one to 1st call it a 'conspiracy theory' and at no point have i stated or suggested that i subscribe to the theory. When your open minded it is possible to comment on something you don't believe yourself. The only one i hear who's self righteous is you, and no one needs to justify anything ...... but a lot of people who have no interest in downloading the beta still subscribe to the theory ..... personally thinking a little laterally about it i feel its got more to do with how jaundiced and suspicious people are of modern media manipulation than anything else.
once again making the mistake of basing your assertions on MASSIVE lack of actual knowledge. I actually said it a few times in my previous post ........ THE GAME IS MASSIVELY UNFINISHED. No one who intended to buy it would be put off buying it in favour of holding onto the beta, it is far less finished than a bad demo. Only people it would put off a purchase would be people who just didn't like it = same result as a proper demo.
--- End quote ---
Of course you don't want to publisher finding out about these mistakes, he'd freaking FIRE you for breaking security protocols. All these sound far too intentional given your job is on the line and all, but hey, I'll accept that leaks could be "accidental". Given how fast this one spread however, there was intent REALLY early in the leak.
And sure you don't support the conspiracy theory. You did bring it up though, and it needed to be addressed for the load of crap it is.
See above, buyers' minds are far more complex than you or I can even claim to understand, but you might want to look into the power of first impressions. Specifically because this leaked Beta will cause more lost sales then just people who wouldn't buy it anyway. Potential buyers WILL be turned off by the unfinished state of the leaked version.
Guru Zeb:
--- Quote from: Khundes on February 17, 2011, 04:07:07 AM ---Your bet idea is funny. The very basis of your bet idea is funny.
If people agree with me and support my stance, you win your bet.
But if people agree with you and your stance, I win your bet.
There's some sort of flawed logic there.
--- End quote ---
Ok so in short you still believe that the leak will hurt sales. Ok our positions are never going to merge.
So if your analysis is accurate and you believe it reflects reality (rather than just the result of arguing yourself into a corner your too stubborn to back out of ) Take the bet then .......... just a 0 sum forum bet just for face and bragging rights ....... haven't you ever seen or been involved in a forum bet. All we do is announce the bet to the forum with a new post explaining the details, our respective position and calling on forum members to witness said bet.
Personally i don't see anything thats funny about it ............ forum bets are only really funny if the forfeit is an embarrassing sig or avatar. I even offer you a 1st week sales bet, surely 1st week sales are exactly the area where your suggesting sales would be hurt the most. Make your own suggestions am open to offers ;D
I can understand you wishing to avoid a forum bet (as your position holds no substance) .......... but maybe you didn't read my suggestion carefully enough. How is a bet based on the sales figures of a game dependent on how many people support our respective positions?!?!? ::)
Your justification is the one thats illogical, you are aware of the difference between a forum BET and a forum POLL.
As stated if you truly believe your position is accurate, then i don't see the problem with putting some credibility on the line and indulging in a little forum bet ....... I am more than happy to do it (as am 100% certain how well Crysis II will sell).
Your reluctance maybe says more about your position than your willing to openly state yourself.
Khundes:
Where to begin...
First: Where the hell did I say the game would not sell at all?
Second: Where did I even say it would not hit the top of the charts at release?
You seriously have to work on your assumption habit. It's bad for being taken seriously. I'm being honest here.
With that out of the way...
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/extra-credits/2653-Piracy
Watch it. Very instructive. It's more or less the stand I adopted towards piracy myself. You might learn a thing or two.
And because you seem so hung up on the bet...
You'll have to provide me with some information I must admit I am unable to acquire.
-How do you measure the amount of people, at launch, who would have bought Crysis II, but because of the leaked version, did not?
-How do you measure the amount of people, at launch, who would not have bought Crysis II but ended up doing so thanks to it?
Unless you can provide me with this data, we can't even have a bet, I'd have no data to show for myself! And there's the issue with piracy. The data is invisible.
What isn't, is the stats for Crysis I.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crysis#Reception
The game fared poorly at release, based on expectation. The game was at the top of piracy charts for a long while. The game managed to reach expectations and make a profit, it took a year and a half for it to do so, however. And later it became one of the best-selling PC games of all times.
These are the facts we have. Nothing less. We could add that Crysis was long regarded as a benchmark for Gaming PC performance universally, what with the old joke:
"I have a new kickass gaming PC! Woo hoo!"
"But can it run Crysis?"
It had a lot of piracy, but it was also a technical standard. Given these facts, Crysis II, which admitted to not being a PC benchmark this time, loses the marketing edge of being a technical standard, and this leak gives piracy a head start of sorts. What will the impact be? Who knows? The company pleaded for fans to buy the game at release despite the leak, a stand I myself have been pushing forward(made obvious by my first post in this topic, when actually read). Will people's good hearts make the game a hit despite the piracy? Will the piracy hurt sales enough to prevent Crysis II from ever making a profit?
If history repeats itself, Crysis II will probably at least pay for itself despite this. But then the real questions are "How long will it take" and "until it does, how will employees be paid properly?" Every time a game piracy leads to a lost sale, a lot of people get less money to live with. That means the studio has less money to make Crysis III all it could be, too. Is this really a stance worth defending? Is this really a way to appreciate games?
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