Author Topic: WD HDD Industry Will Be Supply Constrained Due to Thailand Flooding (Read 8507 times)

luchina · « **Reply #120 on:** January 07, 2012, 03:25:29 PM »

Quote from: kitamesume on January 07, 2012, 02:51:10 PM

ehhhhhhhhhhhh... i wish i could get HDDs at those ridiculous discounts too...

I know, I got quite lucky. It was DSF offer (Dubai Shopping Festival). There are lot of other offer's too, and quiet nice too. The festival is between 5 Jan to 5 Feb. (the HDD offer was between 5 Jan to 14 Jan, part 1 of the sale)

Quote from: kitamesume on January 07, 2012, 07:26:55 AM

^ you could try filling it up to it's brim and check if it'll cause an error or breakdown, if its stable then you can conclude that every sector is working fine.

I meant before transferring the stuff into the drive, not transfer first, check later.

per · « **Reply #121 on:** January 07, 2012, 04:12:04 PM »

Quote from: luchina on January 07, 2012, 03:25:29 PM

I meant before transferring the stuff into the drive, not transfer first, check later.

You could always try a program like hdtune pro, with a bad-block scanner.

Or use the one built into windows/macos X/linux whatever.

It takes a long time to check every block of large drives, though.

kitamesume · « **Reply #122 on:** January 08, 2012, 08:28:44 AM »

Quote from: luchina on January 07, 2012, 03:25:29 PM

Quote from: kitamesume on January 07, 2012, 02:51:10 PM
ehhhhhhhhhhhh... i wish i could get HDDs at those ridiculous discounts too...

I know, I got quite lucky. It was DSF offer (Dubai Shopping Festival). There are lot of other offer's too, and quiet nice too. The festival is between 5 Jan to 5 Feb. (the HDD offer was between 5 Jan to 14 Jan, part 1 of the sale)

Quote from: kitamesume on January 07, 2012, 07:26:55 AM
^ you could try filling it up to it's brim and check if it'll cause an error or breakdown, if its stable then you can conclude that every sector is working fine.

I meant before transferring the stuff into the drive, not transfer first, check later.

quite easy actually, creating multiple duplicates of a large iso will fill the drive up, well technically anything large should do.

Freedom Kira · « **Reply #123 on:** January 08, 2012, 11:41:23 AM »

In other words...

1. Select one file.
2. Copy the file.
3. Paste the file repeatedly (just hold down ctrl + V for a while).

But no, that's a horrible way to test a hard drive. per's suggestion is much better.

... Anyway, we're just a bit off topic, aren't we?

kitamesume · « **Reply #124 on:** January 08, 2012, 01:16:55 PM »

ya it is a bad idea, but on my end which i get to do it anyway, because i duplicate one HDD's contents to the other and let it sit like that for a few days, delete the contents of the old HDD and fill it up with new files.

no idea, the real topic is about HDD shortage, well, guessing it'll last till next December, since prices doesn't drop like a rock. companies will abuse the risen prices until someone causes an avalanche.

scenario:
"you usually sell candies for 1$ each and alot of people buys, suddenly the market became expensive making you sell candies for 2$ each but since people knows about it they'll still buy, the market settles and you can now sell candies back at 1$ each but people got used to buying 2$ each, will you go back to selling 1$ each?"

NaRu · « **Reply #125 on:** January 09, 2012, 04:12:40 AM »

Quote from: kitamesume on January 07, 2012, 02:51:10 PM

ehhhhhhhhhhhh... i wish i could get HDDs at those ridiculous discounts too...

Before the floods I was able to buy a 3TB HDD WD Green for $130 on Newegg. I want those prices back!

AnimeJanai · « **Reply #126 on:** January 09, 2012, 05:01:34 AM »

Well, back last year, there were more HDD competitors than just two. So even if two companies decided to "peg" prices relative to each other (informal price fixing), the third competitor would upset the party and undercut the prices. So we had a "price war" where the drive prices kept going downwards quite a bit.

Since former competitors' HDD divisions (Samsung and Hitachi) have been bought up by Western Digital and Seagate, there are only two main drive sources in the USA consumer market. Here's hoping some Chinese or Taiwanese company will enter the market and force the drive prices down. It makes you sort of wonder why hasn't this happened yet????

kitamesume · « **Reply #127 on:** January 09, 2012, 06:16:35 AM »

^ its because this scenario is currently running on the HDD manufacturer.

Quote from: kitamesume on January 08, 2012, 01:16:55 PM

scenario:
"you usually sell candies for 1$ each and alot of people buys, suddenly the market became expensive making you sell candies for 2$ each but since people knows about it they'll still buy, the market settles and you can now sell candies back at 1$ each but people got used to buying 2$ each, will you go back to selling 1$ each?"

replace "candies" with HDDs.

NaRu · « **Reply #128 on:** January 09, 2012, 06:21:26 AM »

Quote from: AnimeJanai on January 09, 2012, 05:01:34 AM

Well, back last year, there were more HDD competitors than just two. So even if two companies decided to "peg" prices relative to each other (informal price fixing), the third competitor would upset the party and undercut the prices. So we had a "price war" where the drive prices kept going downwards quite a bit.

Since former competitors' HDD divisions (Samsung and Hitachi) have been bought up by Western Digital and Seagate, there are only two main drive sources in the USA consumer market. Here's hoping some Chinese or Taiwanese company will enter the market and force the drive prices down. It makes you sort of wonder why hasn't this happened yet?

When drives were so cheap it would have been pointless for a company to get into the HDD market. Now since the price is so high they have a better change to make so money. I think we will see a third company coming into play.

kitamesume · « **Reply #129 on:** January 09, 2012, 06:59:06 AM »

^ expect that to happen after months of wait, can't really see a no-name brand appearing out of nowhere being so popular all of the sudden.

NaRu · « **Reply #130 on:** January 09, 2012, 07:04:17 AM »

Quote from: kitamesume on January 09, 2012, 06:59:06 AM

^ expect that to happen after months of wait, can't really see a no-name brand appearing out of nowhere being so popular all of the sudden.

You might also see SSD get larger and cheaper sooner then expected.

Freedom Kira · « **Reply #131 on:** January 09, 2012, 07:14:24 AM »

Quote from: NaRu on January 09, 2012, 04:12:40 AM

Quote from: kitamesume on January 07, 2012, 02:51:10 PM
ehhhhhhhhhhhh... i wish i could get HDDs at those ridiculous discounts too...

Before the floods I was able to buy a 3TB HDD WD Green for $130 on Newegg. I want those prices back!

Got my 3TB Hitachis for $120 each, before $10 MIR.

Quote from: kitamesume on January 09, 2012, 06:59:06 AM

^ expect that to happen after months of wait, can't really see a no-name brand appearing out of nowhere being so popular all of the sudden.

Months would be too long. Prices would return to normal by then, since they are already gradually declining.

NaRu · « **Reply #132 on:** January 09, 2012, 07:21:01 AM »

Quote from: Freedom Kira on January 09, 2012, 07:14:24 AM

Months would be too long. Prices would return to normal by then, since they are already gradually declining.

They need to drop now....

kitamesume · « **Reply #133 on:** January 09, 2012, 07:36:38 AM »

2-3months to recover a section is about right, i mean, they'll test the remaining equipment if they still work, replace the damaged equipment which requires more paperworks than you may think of because of the funds, contract of where to get the equipment and settlement of the files, plus re-synchronizing everything from scratch. and this is only a section of a factory.

CharredChar · « **Reply #134 on:** January 09, 2012, 08:30:42 PM »

Quote from: Freedom Kira on January 09, 2012, 07:14:24 AM

Months would be too long. Prices would return to normal by then, since they are already gradually declining.

Gradually being relative. Ive been checking prices every couple of weeks and it doesnt seem to change but once a month and only by ~$20. Ive seen prices drop faster before this flood and that was only because of technology advances.

rarely_upset · « **Reply #135 on:** January 10, 2012, 03:00:05 AM »

I just hope they're down by June or so when I get around to building a new PC, the 1TB hard disk costs as much as the motherboard I'm looking at.

CharredChar · « **Reply #136 on:** January 10, 2012, 06:48:26 AM »

Quote from: rarely_upset on January 10, 2012, 03:00:05 AM

I just hope they're down by June or so when I get around to building a new PC, the 1TB hard disk costs as much as the motherboard I'm looking at.

Honestly? Im not even sure if the will be at the prices they were before October by the time we get to June, if it keeps going at the slow pace it is now. Even worse, they may allow the prices to hover longer because they know people will buy them anyway, what choice do you have?

kitamesume · « **Reply #137 on:** January 10, 2012, 07:28:26 AM »

worse case scenario is a monopoly lasting till 2013, best case scenario manufacturers screw their plans and just dump a shitload of funds to resurrect those dead factories, which btw accelerate the procedure.

Freedom Kira · « **Reply #138 on:** January 10, 2012, 10:30:46 AM »

Quote from: CharredChar on January 09, 2012, 08:30:42 PM

Gradually being relative. Ive been checking prices every couple of weeks and it doesnt seem to change but once a month and only by ~$20. Ive seen prices drop faster before this flood and that was only because of technology advances.

Of course. They can't instantly get all their plants back up and running. Each plant that they return to operational status decreases the price a bit more, and each plant takes a lot of time and resources to revive.

Quote from: rarely_upset on January 10, 2012, 03:00:05 AM

I just hope they're down by June or so when I get around to building a new PC, the 1TB hard disk costs as much as the motherboard I'm looking at.

Oh, they'll have dropped, yes. They probably won't be at the prices they were at before October, though, when you could get a TB for maybe $60 IIRC.

CharredChar · « **Reply #139 on:** January 10, 2012, 12:57:38 PM »

I've read before the prices even went up that the plants weren't even going to be the true issue behind a price hick. It had more to do with people panicking and buying a ton of drives, which was an issue during the holidays as the stock is normally low anyway. And that those plants add such a small number to the overall supply that it shouldn't have had such a large effect if their production was the only factor. Don't you think they could have ramped up production at other plants to help compensate and either keep prices down or help lower them quickly? Find it odd that didn't happen?