Tiffany's Murder Game - Round Six: Serial Killers on Baka World

[jinhong91]

I would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling kids!

The Detective caught you on your way to kill Meomix yo.

You would have gotten away with it if it weren't for the Detective.

[Tiffanys]

I would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling kids!

The Detective caught you on your way to kill Meomix yo.

You would have gotten away with it if it weren't for the Detective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-JHfXVlkik

[gits]

I vote for Seventy7X and don't disclose my reasons for doing so.

[Tiffanys]

and don't disclose my reasons for doing so.

...well good luck winning them over with that LOL

[gits]

and don't disclose my reasons for doing so.

...well good luck winning them over with that LOL

I will disclose them next round if everything works out. Also I would prefer if the narrator didn't interfere.

[Bob2004]

*Steps forward from the shadows*

Very interesting that Dex Belle was one of the killers - he was the second most likely suspect by my calculations.

Anyways, I didn't participate on the first day because there was no point to.  There was no evidence yet; only mindless bandwagoning based on nothing.

Moving forward, here is my proposal for how we should act on day 2:

we should vote to kill jay21stm next. 

Here is why:

(click to show/hide)

What does day 1 activity have to do with being the killer?  You might think that being quiet would be the best way to protect yourself and "not draw attention."  This is a logical mistake for two reasons.

(1. Being the killer is the most fun.  I was a killer in the last game and I posted far more than most innocent people - especially on day one.  The reason why is simple enough - it's fun to be the traitor in the mist of the pack of sheep and to try to manipulate them to your own goal.

(2. Getting us to kill each other helps the killer win the game.   It is not only fun for the killer but helps him achieve his win condition - all of us dead.

(click to show/hide)

Look back through the thread - though he mainly stuck to the bandwagon on Krudda and jinhong91, he encouraged us to suspect nearly everyone else in the game.  He is obviously sowing the seeds of discord for future votes - so we can always have a reason to suspect someone since everyone has been mentioned at least once on day 1.

(click to show/hide)

jay21stm was by far the most active on the first day - posting a wopping 46 times on the first 14 pages. 

The next highest were Krudda with only 26 by comparison and jinhong91 with 21.  Since those were the two who had to defend themselves from the bandwagon that is expected.

Interestingly enough, the next highest after the two who were bandwagon'd against was Dex Belle - the other killer.

Even if my analysis winds up being coincidental in the end it still maps out the most prudent action for us to take now.  In the absence of any other evidence we should resolve doubts about jay21stm now by voting him out immediately. 

Obviously, I cast my vote for jay21stm.

This logic broadly agrees with my current line of thinking, though your theory is a lot more developed than mine was. I think I agree with you, so at the risk of jumping on the bandwagon, I am also going to vote for jay21stm.

Although that said, while the killers do have a lot more incentive to get heavily involved in the game and post a lot, so does the detective - so I guess we ought to be careful voting based on post count. But we have enough information to make at least some kind of educated guess, so it would be a waste not to follow up on it immediately, despite the risks. Risky action is better than inaction, IMO.

[Dex_Belle]

* Dex_Belle breaks out of jail Shawshank style

[gits]

* Dex_Belle breaks out of jail Shawshank style

* Gits pats lil' dex

[MrIntruder]

The real murderer in all this is Tiffany, she orchestrated this, got two people to kill and has the populace killing everyone off one by one too.... She is the Monster.

[lololitas]

I mostly agree with SeventyX7's line of thinking, but there's still that what if? What if seventy is the killer himself. Then suddenly the misleading sentence that the killer posts a lot can be viewed under a different light. Anyway, there is currently no actual way of knowing that. The only thing I'm 100% sure about is that csoo is innocent

Gits could also be a very valuable target. He went after the only one that up till now constructed a logical argument for targeting someone. In the case that he is the serial killer, he'd greatly benefit of getting rid of seventyX7.

Anyway, until I think of anything better I'll go with jay21stm. Since I have stuff to do today there won't be much thinking from me I think. Should I have an epiphany, I'll change my vote though^^

[Mistgun_Zero]

jay21stm is my vote.

[csoo54]

You're the killer aren't you? Eh? Misty. (=‸=‶)

[jay21stm]

I tell you, you guys are making a mistake again
What if I am merely being a active member of the council. . .accusing me on circumstantial evidence such as that is absurd.

Let me see if I can wrap this up for you and explain why I say that. . .

1.(this being the biggest clue you now have) -

I will give you guys one clue to go on... The killer that is left is the second killer.

I probably won't be giving any further clues until around Day 5 or 6. But, that's more than enough to go on.

So think about this for a second. . .
Tiffany herself even told us earlier in the game that someone with an important role went missing and as such she must now give the role to the next person. . .here is the quote -

Just so you guys know, you aren't waiting on me. There is one person with an important role that still hasn't replied and it's coming up on 24 hours since the messages were sent so I'm just going to assume they're either MIA or not active enough for such an important role. As such, the next person down on the randomized list is getting the role.

. . .so based on that I could not be the killer. . .and here is why. . .

It's starting to look like a lot of people may have to be removed so I'll allow you two to join. I'll even re-randomize the remaining list and who knows, one of you may even be assigned the role.

another quote from Tiffany. . .
so the first list of killers ect was already predetermined. . .so looking at the first quote tells you the remaining killer is the 2nd one. . .so if I was selected as as a killer the first round then the list would not have been randomized again. . .but looking at the last quote it was. . .
And if I was selected, I would now be in jail. . .because I would of been the first killer then.

so even if I wasn't. . . that still leaves me with a very small chance as being selected as the killer when the list was randomized again, because we now had two extra players that joined. . .those being Gits and harpy

So now in light of that, lets look at what other evidence we have. . .
but once again  we do not have much. even our dear narrator has stated such
because we are one killer down and it could make for a very short game if she gave too much evidence away at this stage.

So all we really have then are behaviour patters etc etc. . .and as SeventyX7 abstained from voting, that could be construed as him being the detective, because maybe he stayed in the police station this first day and thus would not be able to vote. .but once again this is just circumstantial. . .
for all we know he could be the killer and thus the main reason he has stayed away. . .because I mean his target was already picked and all he had to do was wait for the results. . .

but if you ask me. I honestly think he might be the detective. . .
so that leaves us with who the killer may be. . .and if we look at the two possible suspects we have from the hints Tiffany gave us. . .that just leaves Gits . . .

plus I also suspect jinhong91 because he seems to be having WAAAAY too much fun. . and even SeventyX7 said that when he was the killer last time, he too had a ball and had a lot of fun doing so. . .

Lastly there is Bob2004 agreeing with SeventyX7 but not just agreeing but also saying IMMEDIATELY , as if he would like me to die as fast as possible. . .could he be relieved and wants me out of the way before anyone could suspect otherwise?

So there it is. . .those are the people I suspect. . .honestly though all I can say in my defence is that I was just trying to be a active member on the council. . .I never claimed to be brilliant at making deductions.

Krudda changed his avatar and started acting suspicious. . .so I was not the one LEADING the bandwagon as SeventyX7 claims. . .we all suspected him. . .I was not the first one to mention this. . .

[lololitas]

Wow, I come home from a boring lecture, and then I find faulty reasoning. That defense has one major hole. Tiff never said that people that were in the first randomized list could not be in the second randomized list. So even if you weren't chosen the first time, you could still have been chosen the second time. Anyway, gits and harpy have just as high a chance as you to have been selected the second time. So that hardly qualifies as a valid defense. Before I can decide about seventy, I need to see more. Currently he is in a gray area. It's true that bob2004 agreed quickly (I did as well), but I believe he is also relieved that there is a convenient option to choose from, where the circumstantial evidence has been provided. That's my reasoning for voting against you in this case. We don't really have anything but circumstantial evidence, mind you, so we can only accuse based on that evidence.

It's true that I was the first one to vote for Krudda, but that had different reasoning in my case. The bandwagon was later built in my wake apparently.

[Bob2004]

But the detective performed an action - ie. investigating and thus capturing the other killer - so he can't have stayed in the police station. And there'd be no reason to do so on the first day anyway, since that's the day you have the lowest chance of being targeted by the killers. Better to save it for when you might really need it. Besides, there's nothing suspicious about abstaining on the first turn to begin with IMO - after all, I did the exact same thing, just in a slightly different way.

As for my timing... firstly, I didn't exactly post immediately. But regardless of the time gap between our posts, I just happened to post when I got home. Having spent the entire day out and about in Kyoto, I got back to the hotel, read through the latest posts in this thread (8 or 9 pages of them - you guys post way too much ¬_¬), then posted. I've been keeping half an eye on the thread all evening, and am going to go to bed in 10 minutes or so, after which I won't post until around the same time tomorrow night, since I'm going to Nara - or maybe even later, since I might be going out drinking for a while afterwards, too.


So, why did I agree with SeventyX7's post? Well, I too had been thinking that if I were the killer, I would be pretty heavily invested in the game - it would, after all, be a lot more fun than being a mere member of the populace. And if I were heavily invested in the game, I would of course spend more time on it, which would, most likely, lead to posting a lot in this thread. Additionally, the killers have an interest in manipulating people's votes in order to achieve their own ends - and doing so also requires them to post a fair amount.

That was about as far as I had got. Seventy then posted details of how many posts different people had made, which I would probably have gone and looked up myself otherwise anyway, and drew some conclusions from that as to who the two killers were. His reasoning there made sense, and the identity of the killer who had already been revealed matched the pattern perfectly, lending extra credence to the theory.

While it is hardly certain that both killers would follow the same pattern, and the detective also runs the risk of following that pattern (being equally invested in the game, though I guess not as likely to spend time trying to manipulate the voting, at least not on the first day), it is currently the best lead we have. And since we do have a lead, I would rather take action on it rather than sit around twiddling my thumbs for another turn. Even if we do run the (rather high) risk of killing an innocent rather than the killer, I think it's worth taking at this stage.

And yes, as lololitas pointed out, the fact that there was a nice convenient theory for me to use rather than having to do too much thinking myself may also have played a, extremely minor, role in my decision to vote for you. Obviously that was but one very thin thread in the thick rope of my reasoning, however.

That's my incredibly intelligent and sophisticated theory, and is what I am going to commit myself to, since I am now going to go to bed. If I'm wrong, you have my apologies, and I would like to offer my sincerest condolences to your friends and family, whose lives from now will doubtless be barren and devoid of joy without you.

Assuming the serial killer doesn't kill them too, of course.

[jay21stm]

not going to say anything more regarding my defence then. . .
guess you'll find out when we see the news again. . .

If I die, I am definitely coming back to haunt all of you 

and not just talking about being the first one to vote for Krudda. . .meant we all suspected him because of him changing his avatar etc etc. . .

All I did was post a lot and I even put myself up as a suspect. . .but can you accused me of being a killer just on that alone?
no, hence why I said it's all just circumstantial.

But, oh well. . .will sit and wait to see what happens and haunt you all once it's done


that just means you jumping on the bandwagon again. . .

that's why I posted a lot. . .because I was forming my own opinions and did not want to just follow what others said and merely accuse someone because another did so

[Chiyachan]

I'm loving this probing room!

[harpy]

Well then, I still suspect gits the most. He was way too eager to kill of people and the maybe true Tiffs hints also pointed to him. Zooo, this time I will vote - gits did want to change my vote last time, but eh too lazy

[SchoolDaysEX]

Still voting for gits. For day 2

[Dex_Belle]

Howdy yall. I'm new here. I am just going to observe your community here